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Is Edgerrin James Hall of Fame Material?

Ok, so we all know that if Edge were to retire today, he most certainly would never be elected to the Hall of Fame. The bigger question though is how close is he. I was surprised when I looked at the career stats for running backs and saw how high James was in most of the categories. Granted stats alone won't tell you the whole story but it's definitely a starting point.

With that being said, we'll look at where he is heading into the 2008, where he could be after the 2008 season, and where he could be after 2009 when he'll be a free agent. In order to set the table, I'll assume that James will stay healthy and be as productive as he's been during his two seasons in Arizona meaning he'll get 1,200 yards rushing, 200 yards receiving and 6 total touchdowns in 2008. Just for the sake of being conservative based on his age and the possibility of the Cardinals attempting to groom a replacement, lets assume that he gets only 1,000 yards rushing, 100 yards receiving and 4 total touchdowns. Those might be overly optimistic projections in the eyes of some but an improved and stable offensive line and appropriate play calling should make those numbers easily attainable.

 

Rushyardscareer_medium

First, ranking thirteenth on the all-time rushing list is impressive enough and if memory serves every back ahead of him on that list who is eligible is already in the Hall of Fame. If we add 1,200 yards to that total, Edge would jump to seventh on the list and if we project two seasons out, Edge would rank 5th with just over 13,800 yards rushing. He'd also be within arms reach of Curtis Martin at fourth who would be just under 300 yards ahead of him. Obviously the Chargers' LaDainian Tomlinson is going to pass Edge at some point in the future, but other than LT the next back who has any realistic shot of jumping into the top ten is Washington's Clinton Portis. He's currently has 7,715 yards at 26 years old. Still though, it's very conceivable that James could rank in the top 5 in terms of rushing yards before his career ends and that alone might be enough to get him in.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yardsfromscrimmagecareer_medium

Edge is obviously helped out in this department the gaudy receiving stats that he put up in Indy, but he's still an above average back out of the backfield. If we project James to get about 1,400 yards from scrimmage during 2008, he would jump to 10th on the all-time list, and just inches (well actually 26 yards) from the former Cowboy, Tony Dorsett, in ninth. If we look past the 2009 season and project another 1,100 yards, Edge would then rank eighth all time, less than 100 yards behind former Jet and Patriot, Curtis Martin. He'd also be less than 300 yards behind former Raider and Chief Marcus Allen for 6th all-time.

Star-divide

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obviously Edge's career probably won't end after the 2009 season, but it's likely that he'll have to become part of a two back system (something he's never done) or be regulated to back-up duty entirely. By these projections, he would be right on the heels of Curtis Martin in both rushing yards and total yards from scrimmage so whether or not Martin gets in could directly effect Edge if he can't pass him. Edge and Martin both have similar touchdown totals as well with Martin currently having 13 more rushing and 12 more total. The big picture says Edge, if he can produce two more productive seasons, should be on the door step of the Hall of Fame. He'd rank in the top 5 all-time in yards rushing and top 10 in total yards from scrimmage. That totaled with his four Pro Bowls and 1 All-Pro team should be enough to get his foot in the door. What do you guys think, is he a Hall of Famer in your mind?

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Good stuff

You know from my posts on BTSC that I like this sort of stuff. My first thought is that Edge wouldn’t be a HOFer, because he isn’t talked about in elite terms anymore. But, he should definitely have the numbers to get in. I think one thing that may hurt him is the fact that Indy could never win the SB until the year after he left. It’s probably unfair, but that could be a problem for him.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on May 14, 2008 1:22 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

true true

He doesn’t have great playoff stats and that could come back to bite him, but who knows there is still time for him to lead the Cards to the promised land.

by cgolden on May 14, 2008 2:10 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

sick work golden

Rejoice Cards fans, you got a keeper writing for ya now!

As for Edge, I I don’t think he’ll get in unless he has another two or three 1200+ yard seasons. His durability is pretty darn outstanding though.

by Blitzburgh on May 14, 2008 1:50 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks Blitz

Two 1,200 yards seasons would put him at 5th All-time
Three seasons would put him 4th (right behind Barry Sanders)

Not sure he’s got that much left in his legs. He’ll turn 30 before the season starts.

by cgolden on May 14, 2008 2:09 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well

Considering James will likely end his career with more yards than Franco Harris, Thurman Thomas, and even the guy he replaced in Indy (Marshall Faulk), then it is pretty much a lock he is a HoFer.

If not, then all those other guys shouldn’t have gotten in.

Also, you have to factor in Edge’s versatility. He is a solid back catching passes out of the backfield, and he is one of the best blocking RBs in modern NFL history. He doesn’t need two 1,200 yard seasons to get into the Hall of Fame. He’s got HOF numbers now.

Please make an account and post a diary, add some comments, and make some noise. Accounts are free, and only require an email address.

by BigBlueShoe on May 14, 2008 2:26 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

prolly right

Hadnt looked at the numbers that closely. And I’m not very well versed in NFL HOF. Just seems like such a strange entitity compared to the baseball hall of fame.

Anyway, all those guys you mentioned BBS played on SB winning or in the case of the Bills, a perenially dominant team. Obviously the Colts were very good for a number of years that Edge was there, but theyve really taken the next step since he’s left. Not saying there’s any correlation there, but voters can be kind of finnicky and forgetful.

I’m not sure Jerome Bettis is a hall of famer and he’s right up there too. I still woudl say Edge would be well served with some statistical padding and a playoff berth or two.

by Blitzburgh on May 14, 2008 2:45 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

HOF finicky voters

You’re right about HOF voters being finicky. How else can you explain it taking Art Monk so long to be elected. He owned the record for career receptions when he retired, and he was on 3 (or was it just 2) SB winning teams. Edge should be in, but you never know. Martin may get in because he played in NY, and Bettis because he’s now in the media and still known, while Edge gets overlooked because he’s in a less known market to finish his career.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on May 14, 2008 3:08 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bettis

I think Bettis is. He was a dominant RB for some great Steelers teams. And voters should not be so flaky and fickle to not vote him in because the team won the Super Bowl after he left. They invested their first round pick that year in a RB that is a virtual clone of James (Joseph Addai). And winning a Super Bowl, or playing in one, should not and is not a requirement for HOF consideration. OJ Simpson is a HoFer, and he never played in a Super Bowl. So is Eric Dickerson, and Edgerrin James is leaps and bounds better than that over-rated piece of crap.

The bottom line is Edge was a dominant back for a 5-6 year period on a very successful football team. Even in Arizona, where the o-line has been God awful bad, he is still running for over 1,000 yards. How many years and gone by since the Cards had a 1,000 yard back since Edge arrived?

I don’t think Edge is a first ballot lock like Harrison or Peyton, but he does have HoF credentials.

Please make an account and post a diary, add some comments, and make some noise. Accounts are free, and only require an email address.

by BigBlueShoe on May 14, 2008 3:31 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Edge

Here’s one thing that make work against Edge. Someone could argue that he was a product of the system instead of a truly dynamic player during his time in Indy. Rhodes had a good season when Edge went down with a knee injury and Addai filled in admirably during his rookie season. I’m not really trying to make a case against him, but instead just playing devil’s advocate.

by cgolden on May 14, 2008 8:28 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Edge

The all-position all-post-1970 era stat that Pro Football Reference is working on has Edgerrin as the 40th best player of the last 37 years and the 5th best runningback of that period.

I think Edge’s poor postseason play and the Colts not winning a title are related but not Edge’s fault. The Colts ran him and ran him and threw to him and ran him all regular season then when they leaned on him in the playoffs he had nothing. He topped 369 carries and 430 total touches in both his first two seasons before blowing out his knee in his third year. After a relaxing 330 touch season to recover Edge was back to nearly 400 touches a season for the rest of his time in Indy. The Colts rarely spelled James during the season so come playoff time after ~400 touches of his pounding fall forward style he had nothing left.
Look at James’ first two seasons. He was on pace to be an all-time great. The Colts did him and themselves a disservice by overworking him so badly. He lost his explosiveness after the knee injury. His long runs just stopped. They seem to have learned there lesson, they are keeping Addai’s workload at a more sustainable level and have 3 possible backups on the roster with Rhodes, Hart and Keith.

my blog http://shakennbaken.blogspot.com

by shake n bake on May 14, 2008 3:42 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

workload

Great point about Edge’s workload. He was ran into the ground during his time in Indy. That’s yet another reason why ARI needs to find a reliable #2 to help take some of the load off him. If Hightower can take the short yardage and goal line carries, that help keep Edge’s leg fresher.

by cgolden on May 14, 2008 8:22 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

hall

i think it’ll come down to his competition when he’s eligible for the hall, plus whether or not writers(HOF voters) like him or not. Personally, i think of him as a hall of famer though, esp. if he has more productive years. BTW, what are his ypc numbers?

by tkired on May 14, 2008 10:00 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

YPC

His career yards per carry is 4.1.

by cgolden on May 15, 2008 5:32 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's a above average 4.1 though

Since he almost never broke long runs after his knee injury, 4.1 career YPC means that he consistently moved the chains. He didn’t get the long runs that make up for getting stuffed by YPC. One 40 yard run and 9 runs for no gain gets 4 ypc but kills drives. 10, 4 yard runs is what makes long scoring drive possible. Football outsiders success rate is a great tool to use in combination with YPC to pick out the boom and bust runners.

my blog http://shakennbaken.blogspot.com

by shake n bake on May 15, 2008 10:46 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

that is true

Edge hasn’t had a long run in a couple years to pad his stats.

by cgolden on May 15, 2008 11:35 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

yo

golden, jump on gmail when u get a sec. sorry to litter ure thread with this.

by Blitzburgh on May 15, 2008 11:36 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

throw my .02 in

I would just like to add that because Edge has played in two smaller markets, he won’t have the media’s hype. I think he’s proved worthy and with a couple more seasons with those numbers he’ll get in. Unfortunately it will probably take a few years of eligibility but he will eventually get the votes.

by BlueVol03 on May 15, 2008 3:12 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

We

would be smart to get him a bit more involved with the passing game this year, especially if Matt is gonna be the guy getting the snaps. There’s no reason why Edge shouldn’t get 40+ receptions this year.

by AZSEAfan on May 16, 2008 12:55 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

great point

I wondered all year why Edge wasn’t featured more out of the backfield. That’s such a big part of his game, they can’t afford to ignore it. I’m worried though that Whiz has a history of not utilizing his RBs in the passing game.

by cgolden on May 16, 2008 1:01 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yup

But the lack of usage in Pittsburgh may have been more because of their featured backs being Bettis and Parker, neither of which is exactly Larry Centers catching the ball. It may be different this year with Matt since he doesn’t seem to go downfield as much as Kurt does/did.

by AZSEAfan on May 16, 2008 4:17 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

good point

Bettis isn’t the ideal back out of the backfield and the biggest mystery in Pittsburgh for the past couple of years is why Parker isn’t a threat out of the back field. Maybe Parker simply lacks the ability but time will tell if the problem lies with Whiz. He’s got a heck of a recieving threat in Edge and can’t afford to waste that part of his game.

by cgolden on May 16, 2008 8:03 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

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