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Arizona Cardinals Community Projections: Edgerrin James

Our community wide projections shifts from those who catch the ball to those who carry the rock and where better to start than Edgerrin James. If you missed out on the opportunity to give your projections for Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Steve Breaston or Leonard Pope then just click on the players names and put your predictions on record. 

Edge hasn't had the type of success that he or the Cardinals envisioned when he was signed as aEdge1_medium free agent in 2006 but the table is set for his best season as a Cardinal this year. Edge, as always, is in great shape and his carries have been limited in the preseason to make sure that he's ready for the regular season. He's also got, arguably  the best line in the past three seasons and he's finally got a compliment back to give him a breather. Edge has been a workhorse back his entire career averaging over 316 carries and 46 receptions a season over the past nine years but at some point the 30 year old back needs someone else to help him shoulder the load. His monster seasons of over 2,000 combined yardage are over but there's no reason to think that he doesn't have at least a couple more seasons of productive play. His game has always been more based on great vision and quickness rather than pure speed and the Cardinals are finally incorporating some of the 'zone blocking' schemes that he used in Indianapolis. Here's a look at his career numbers:

Games Att Yards Avg TD
2007 16 324 1,222 3.8 7
2006 16 337 1,159 3.4 6
2005 15 360 1,506 4.2 13
2004 16 334 1,548 4.6 9
2003 13 310 1,259 4.1 11
2002 14 277 989 3.6 2
2001 6 151 662 4.4 3
2000 16 387 1,709 4.4 13
1999 16 369 1,553 4.2 13
Totals 128 2849 11,607 4.1 77

I tend to think that Edge will be more productive this year because he won't get as many carries. The Cardinals have a legitimate #2 back and a guy who can take some of the short yardage abuse off of Edge's shoulders. You know the drill: Projections in the subject line and explanation in the body of your comment. Here's my take:

15 Games, 267 carries, 1,148 yards (4.3 ypc), 5 TDs

0 recs | Comment 13 comments

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16 Games, 220 carries, 990 yards (4.5 ypc), 5 TDs

Edge will be durable this year and his average carry will the second highest of his career, but the younger backs in the stable will be eating a lot of his hay this year. Going off the “expert” estimates that Hightower will be seeing “8 to 10” carries a game, that racks up to at least 128 touches this season. Also, Edge is getting into Fred Taylor territory of being “old” and productive and will need to be kept out of decided games to save his body for the stretch run to the playoffs.

My first instinct was James would get 1,300 yards, but I just couldn’t figure a way to make that number work with the number of carries.

Some call me Tim “Ballista” Hightower, I have him down for:
16 Games, 102 carries, 520 yards (5.2 ypc), 7 TDs

We all leave footprints in the sands of time, just watch out for the discarded fish hooks!

by Hawkwind on Aug 27, 2008 7:52 AM MDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

16 games, 258 carries, 1,089 (4.22ypc), 8 tds

With the way Hightower find the endzone on short yardage I really see him:
14 games, 127 carries, 640 yards (5 ypc)10 TDs “rushing and receiving”

by boogatt66 on Aug 27, 2008 10:18 AM MDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

18 TDs out of the backfield, wouldn't that be a treat!

Good chance of that number happening if Leinart is under center for a significant number of snaps.

We all leave footprints in the sands of time, just watch out for the discarded fish hooks!

by Hawkwind on Aug 27, 2008 2:01 PM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ground TD's will increase with either QB

And I wouldn’t be surprised if there were 1-2 TDs from Arrington or Castille.

by AJ BirdWatcher on Aug 27, 2008 2:55 PM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It wouldn't take much to improve

Rushing TDs per season in recent years: 9, 12, 2, 15, 5, 10…you get the picture. It doesn’t take much to improve, it’s just been painful getting there. Thank you Coach Grimm.

We all leave footprints in the sands of time, just watch out for the discarded fish hooks!

by Hawkwind on Aug 27, 2008 3:43 PM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No doubt

It would be awesome if teams actually had to worry about the ground game around the goal line.

by cgolden on Aug 27, 2008 7:57 PM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Mario Bates, the last goal line threat?

Wasn’t that the guy during the Thomas Jones days? The Cards would get inside the five and he’d come in and score the TDs. I think he had a stat line one game that was 3 carries, 1 yard, 2 TDs. Fantasy workhorse!

We all leave footprints in the sands of time, just watch out for the discarded fish hooks!

by Hawkwind on Aug 27, 2008 10:25 PM MDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Stat book, where art thou?

Thanks CG, you read my yearning for stats correctly. I have to find my stat book soon!

We all leave footprints in the sands of time, just watch out for the discarded fish hooks!

by Hawkwind on Aug 28, 2008 7:31 AM MDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

that's what I'm here for

My favorite stat site is Pro Football Reference. It’s a growing site that has really good historical stats and has everything but defensive stats.

by cgolden on Aug 28, 2008 8:54 AM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Bookmarked!

I have the ESPN Complete NFL Stats book from a couple of years ago…in a box, still packed from moving in May. A handy reference when watching the game and not wanting to fiddle with the PC.

We all leave footprints in the sands of time, just watch out for the discarded fish hooks!

by Hawkwind on Aug 28, 2008 10:16 AM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

true that

Have you ever checked out Pro Football Prospectus from Football Outsiders? They do great work with their own ‘stats’ at FO and I hear great things about PFP but I’ve never checked it out. We’ll revisit FO once the season starts, they’re stats are pretty good and they update them on a weekly basis so they’ll become a regular part of our week.

by cgolden on Aug 28, 2008 10:57 AM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

since several have already weighed in on Hightower:

Hightower’s projection: 116 carries, 522 yards (4.5 ypc), 10 TDs

I’d go alittle higher on the YPC but with most of his work coming via short yardage situations he might not have the chance to post a better average.

by cgolden on Aug 28, 2008 9:00 AM MDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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