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Arizona Cardinals at SF 49ers: A Look at the Key Match-Ups (Part Deux)

After getting the ball rolling with four key match-ups yesterday, Fooch, at Niners Nation, and myself sit down and look at the final four match-ups facing the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers. These were a bit tougher for me but let me know what you think:

Matchup #5: 49ers Defensive front 7 vs. Cardinals OL (rushing) Edge4_medium

Fooch: Advantage: 49ers - While the Cardinals performed well in rushing against the 49ers, the 49ers front 7 has been dramatically improved.  The addition of Justin Smith at OLB and defensive end gives the team a nasty presence now that Bryant Young is retired.  Manny Lawson played in the opener, but was out for the second SF-AZ matchup and he is an integral part of their run defense.  Patrick Willis has a full year under his belt and should only improve.  The one drawback is that Aubrayo Franklin is consistently getting pushed around at the nose tackle position, making it more difficult for the linebackers to make plays.  However, the 49ers will be able to rotate enough guys into the defensive line to cover for that deficiency.  While Michael Lewis plays strong safety, he is excellent in the running game and provides some second level support to the linebackers if they miss a tackle.

CG: Advantage: Cardinals - The Cardinals actually ran the ball decently against the Niners last year totaling 257 yards on 62 carries last year just over 4.1 yards per carry, which is better than they did against the rest of the league. They've also worked tirelessly this offseason to improve the running game and are even going to incorporate some zone blocking schemes to better suit Edgerrin James' running style. The Niners run defense took some shots last year and ended up ranking 22nd in the league but they only allowed 3.8 yards per attempt. With the Niners front seven being fresh and the Cardinals offensive line looking solid so far, I'd really like to call this match-up a 'push,' but I won't take the easy way out. I'll give the Cardinals a slight edge with the one-two punch of James and Hightower.

Match-up #6: Cardinals defensive front 7 vs. 49ers OL (rushing)

Fooch: Advantage: 49ers - I will be honest and admit I don't know a whole heck of a lot about the Cardinals.  The injuries to the defensive line are certainly not something you want when you're facing a running back like Frank Gore.  Gore has slimmed down as he expects to carry a Marshall Faulk type of rushing/receiving role.  The 49ers offensive line was a weakness for much of last year, but Gore was still able to surpass 1,100 rushing yards.  The line has gotten younger and healthier and while Gore may not reach his 2007 goal of 2,000 yards, he will be the engine of this offense.  I'd expect the 2007 offensive line issues to be an anomaly and the 2006 excellence to return.

CG: Advantage: 49ers - The Cardinals defense might have had some faults in 2007 but the front seven was solid against the run. They gave up less than 100 yards per game and finished 9th in league in run defense, but they do have some question marks heading into Sunday. The biggest question mark is at the biggest position in a 3-4 defense, nose tackle. Gabe Watson, last years starter, has already been ruled out for the game and primary backup Alan Branch is questionable at best right now. He hasn't practiced since injuring his ankle in the final preseason game and he'll have to get healthier if he wants to suit up against the Niners. That leaves the nose tackle position to veteran Bryan Robinson, who was signed in the offseason to backup the nose and defensive end positions. He's a consummate professional but he's not a true nose tackle and if he has to play the entire game, he could get pushed around pretty badly by the fourth quarter. If he's the only nose tackle that's available, I'd expect them to go with more four man fronts to try and give him some help. I'd love to take the Cardinals here but there are too many question marks at this point to vote against Frank Gore, who's averaged 4.5 yards per carry against the Cardinals throughout his career.

The final two match-ups after the jump.....

Star-divide

Match-up #7: Cardinals return team vs. 49ers return coverage

Fooch: Advantage: Even - That's a bit of a copout, but after excellent return coverage in 2007, the preseason saw the 49ers give up a long return in 3 of the 4 exhibitions.  While that is a pretty small sample size, it certainly created some worries in myself and other 49ers fans.  However, one of the key special teamers, Michael Robinson, was out for the first three games after knee surgery.  Additionally, Jeff Ulbrich, a special teans standout was starting at inside linebacker for the Breaston_2_medium
preseason.  However, Robinson is back and healthy, while Ulbrich may see a decrease in regular playing time due to the addition of Takeo Spikes.  Spikes and Ulbrich are splitting the inside linebacker role, which means more special teams time for Ulbrich.  Andy Lee set a record for most punts insie the 20 last season but part of that was due to all the time on the field.  If he can maintain his net punt average, the 49ers special teams should be fine.

CG: Advantage 49ers - The Niners were pretty good covering kicks in 2007 (22.3 yards per KO return) but they only recorded 4 touch backs all season so Steve Breaston and JJ Arrington will get some chances to make plays. On punts though the Niners' Andy Lee is one of the best and they only allowed 7.6 yards per punt return. This is an interesting match-up because the Cardinals are better returning punts than kickoffs so it's somewhat of a strength on strength duel. Steve Breaston ranked second in league in total return yards in 2007 and he took a punt back for a touchdown. JJ Arrington has looked better returning kicks in the preseason and could see an increased role in that department as Breaston gets integrated into the base offense. Looking at the big picture, I'd have to go with the Niners considering the kicking abilities of Andy Lee and Joe Nedney. Breaston is an above average punt returner but Lee is pretty good at neutralizing return men.

Match-up #8: 49ers return team vs. Cardinals return coverage

Fooch: Advantage: 49ers - After relying on Maurice Hicks and Arnaz Battle, the 49ers signed a dedicated return man in Allen Rossum.  Rossum is #2 all-time for combined kick and punt return yards.  Of course, that means he's starting to get up there in age, as he's now 32.  However, he showed some spark in the preseason with a return for a touchdown.  Aside from Rossum, the 49ers are that rare team that will occasionally use a tight end, in their case Delanie Walker.  Walker played wide receiver in college and has impressive speed for a converted tight end.  The 49ers have had decent return men, but they always seemed to be missing that game-breaker that could change the momentum within a few seconds.  Rossum showed a tendency to avoid fair catches and while I like the big-play instinct, it could also lead to turnovers or poor field position.  If you can shorten the field by 10 or 20 yards consistently, you're offense will look considerably better.

CG: Advantage: 49ers - The Cardinals had issues bottling up returners last season and so far through four preseason games, they look to have the same problems. Neil Rackers is a very good kick off guy sending 17 kickoffs into the end zone for touch backs in 2007, but when opponents did return kicks they averaged 23.2 yards per return. Their punt coverage was even worse allowing 13.1 yards per return (31st in the league) and it could be even worse this year considering that Dirk Johnson hasn't been all that impressive during training camp or preseason, although he does punt it out of bounds pretty often (which will kill a return game). Allen Rossum doesn't strike much fear any more but he's still somewhat dangerous returning kickoffs. Regardless of who's returning kicks, I can't in good conscious give the Cardinals a 'thumbs-up' in any match-up that involves Neil Rackers and Dirk Johnson.

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Well that's it sports fans. What do you think? Was I too hard on the Cardinals? Any other match-ups that your looking forward to seeing?

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Comments

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stay critical

For this type of excercise, I feel that it is important to take a step back from the fan’s standpoint and view this from the outside. I think you have done a realistic analysis of the matchups here.

Fooch, on the other hand, is starting to give me the idea that he is too much of an optimistic homer. It started on the first half of the debate when he gave the nod to his secondary over Fitz & Boldin. Although they have better than average corners, I felt that was a little far fetched. On the second series here he continues to acknowledge the strengths and improvements of the 49ers team but doesn’t ever mention the Cardinal’s additions or the improvements through continuity of a second year in both offensive & defensive schemes.

by AJ BirdWatcher on Sep 4, 2008 7:18 AM MDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thanks, that is what I was trying to do.

As for being a homer, we all are to some extent. The commentors at Niners Nation said that I was giving some ‘homer-type’ answers in the first installment.

by cgolden on Sep 4, 2008 7:44 AM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Let's revisit after the game

Then get to see which side is being conservative or overly optimistic on each matchup.

by AJ BirdWatcher on Sep 4, 2008 11:38 AM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

our special teams suck

Plain and simple. Dirk is a joke. I was a utility man in high school and yes I handled all of the kicking duties as well as being a fullback and DB. Even I had better hang time and directional precision. And lets not talk about Rackers. After he sucks this year, he will blame the ball for being inadequately pressurized since he’s already given a thumbs up to his holder. In Whiz’s defense, the best players are starting ( since they never had any competition, literally). By week 3 we will be looking for a new punter.

by hevchv on Sep 4, 2008 7:22 AM MDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

good points

It’s discouraging that a team that’s thinking playoffs this season is so bad on special teams. If that unit costs this team a game or two this year, that could be the difference (again) between a successful season and another season looking at the playoffs from the outside.

by cgolden on Sep 4, 2008 7:46 AM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

are there any good punters out there?

We can make due with Rackers as long as we don’t ask him to win a tight game for us. But defensive field position is key to the flow of the game. If Dirk punts those line drives during the season, then we will not have time to execute our coverage and will again have the worst net punting yards and return yards in the nfl. That will put more unneeded pressure on our defense. Playing on a shorter field will change the dynamics of the game.

by hevchv on Sep 4, 2008 8:00 AM MDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm sure that they are but I really don't know any of them off hand

There were several teams (DEN & WAS) that carried two punters right up until the final roster cuts though so there have to be some decent options out there.

by cgolden on Sep 4, 2008 8:22 AM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Denver's cut should be signed

Sam Paulescu was awesome against the Cards in the last pre-season game. I figured he had the roster spot won.

Derrick Frost was cut by the Redskins but was promptly signed by Green Bay.

We all leave footprints in the sands of time, just watch out for the discarded fish hooks!

by Hawkwind on Sep 4, 2008 10:49 AM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If we stop Gore...

This game is in the bag. If their special teams and run game is on point, and we keep playing our ST coverage like we did in preseason, it will make for a long game. I am definatly leaning in the Cards favor right now because I just don’t think their defense is solid enough to stop our high powered offense. We do it all on the offensive side of the ball. We’re going to pass for 300+ and rush for 100+ this game and even Gore’s big day will not be enough.

by boogatt66 on Sep 4, 2008 10:12 AM MDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

37 carries for 102 yards/ 3 recptions for 19 yards

JT will be 17/32 for 156 yards. BJ 3 receptions 4 drops for 27 yards. Not enough to beat the Cards.

by hevchv on Sep 4, 2008 10:29 AM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Less rushing/More receptions

I predict Gore’s yards will be about 60/40 Rushing vs. Receiving.

90 yds ground 60 yds receiving.

Man, that could be scary.

by AJ BirdWatcher on Sep 4, 2008 11:40 AM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The rest of the offense will be limited.

I’m guessing Gore will make up around half of the offensive yards in this game. So I think 150 yds won’t do that much damage.

by AJ BirdWatcher on Sep 4, 2008 11:45 AM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I concur

Gore will be a one-man wrecking crew. Will it be enough? Doubtful.

We all leave footprints in the sands of time, just watch out for the discarded fish hooks!

by Hawkwind on Sep 4, 2008 11:46 AM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I hate to gloat!!!

Well, actually I don’t. LOL

Gore: 151 total yards
96 yds rushing
55 yds receiving
64/36 ratio

Wasn’t enough to do it though!!!

by AJ BirdWatcher on Sep 7, 2008 6:27 PM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't think I was too far off. Do you?

I gave Gore 121 yards. He actually got 151. BJ did have 3 catches, but I don’t know how, if any, many drops.

by hevchv on Sep 7, 2008 5:55 PM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

One was just a bad throw by JTO

short sideline pass had BJ diving for it. Poor throw.

by AJ BirdWatcher on Sep 7, 2008 6:28 PM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hit BJ in the hands though

You’re paid to make your QB look better than he is, especially being a former first round pick. Clearly, that’s not the case with BJ.

We all leave footprints in the sands of time, just watch out for the discarded fish hooks!

by Hawkwind on Sep 8, 2008 6:22 AM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

well said

I still think that preseason was totally vanilla on the defensive side. I truely believe we will be on point once Clancy throws in those blitzes and crazy fronts. I don’t play fantasy football yet, but trust me. You will earn a lot of points with our defense. We will be in the top eight this season. With Kurt starting the season and everyone virtually healthy, we will start out most games building a nice lead. This will force our opponents to air it out. Even when playing the 3-4 we will be in sack and qb pressure heaven. Mock my words. You guys reserve the right to rag me all season anytime this doesn’t happen. 10-6 with 5-0 to start the season.

by hevchv on Sep 4, 2008 10:26 AM MDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ouch!!!

We’re going to go into the playoffs dropping 5 of 6??? That’s not a great confidance boost, lol.

by boogatt66 on Sep 4, 2008 10:37 AM MDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I still am not following that.

So they’ll win 5 in a row, and then only win 5 of the next 11?

by AJ BirdWatcher on Sep 4, 2008 11:42 AM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Backsliding into playoffs?

I’ll take it. Beggars cannot be choosers, and I’m beggin’ for a Cards playoff appearance.

We all leave footprints in the sands of time, just watch out for the discarded fish hooks!

by Hawkwind on Sep 4, 2008 11:47 AM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My final two coppers on the match-ups:

Match-up 5: Here’s a case of conflicting thoughts shored up with conflicting histories. The Cards have traditionally been a shoddy rushing team, yet have done well against the Niners since they started sharing the same division. The Cardinals have certainly solidified their o-line and Coach Grimm has been something of the second coming of the Messiah in the desert. Yet in the preseason, the o-line didn’t seem that dominating when it was first team vs. first team. The draw shows a lot of potential and Warner can set that up well with his passing. The Niners have certainly made improvements to their front seven and are all healthy. Patrick Willis may not worry Edge overly but Arrington may dive to the turf on a 3rd down draw with Willis spearing towards him. I guess there’s just not enough bourbon in my Kool-aid on this front…yet. Let me see some consistent rushing outputs and I’m sure I’ll think differently when the Niners are in Arizona.
Advantage 49ers

Match-up 6: Frank Gore, met Mike Martz. Mike Martz, met Frank Gore. Martz, stop sporting a tent in your pants. Gore is going to be HUGE this year in this system…if JT O’Sullivan can complete 50% of his passes. Gore is like Emmitt Smith was when it came to the Cards…time to pad the stats. The Cards are going to be blitzing the ‘ell out of JT hoping to shut the passing down but that will just open up the draw for Gore. The Cards haven’t stopped a draw consistently…ever? How many 3rd-and-17 draws have been first downs or TDs over the years. Too many. This game will be no different unless Pendergast has a magic wand up his sleeve.
Advantage 49ers, key to their chances of winning

Match-up 7: Andy Lee vs. Steve Breaston. Hmmm, Lee can precisely kick the snot out of the ball and will put on a coaching clinic leaving Dirk Johnson questioning his manhood. I’m figuring the Cards will have four kick-off return opportunities this game and starting field position will average around the 27 yard line.
Advantage 49ers

Match-up 8: Dirk Johnson vs. Anyone in a SF uniform. Hmmm, the Niners ought to call up ‘ol Bill Ring to return punts this week since it won’t matter. Dirk will shank a few out of bounds when a long punt is needed then boom it into the end zone when he needs to nail it inside the 20. I’m a big fan, can you tell? Scott Player was in the Patriots’ camp this summer, he’s available…please? The Cards will be kicking off five times this week and their coverage teams won’t do any worse than the Niners’, giving up a starting field position around the 28…on the one kick that can actually be returned since Rackers will boom the other four deep into the end zone.
Advantage 49ers

Match-up 9: Let’s not forget Nedney vs. Rackers. Fresh field in SF; no more Giants infield skin, sea level has not flooded Candlestick Point yet, new sod. Rackers will shut up the critics, for a week, kicking a couple of early FGs. Nedney will do well with his one opportunity hitting a long one before the end of the first half. Halftime score: 49ers 10 Cardinals 6.

Final Score: Cardinals 20 49ers 17 . Warner will have proved his starting was not a mistake.

We all leave footprints in the sands of time, just watch out for the discarded fish hooks!

by Hawkwind on Sep 4, 2008 10:41 AM MDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Err, Match-up 8 should have been *Advantage Even*

We all leave footprints in the sands of time, just watch out for the discarded fish hooks!

by Hawkwind on Sep 4, 2008 10:44 AM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

JJ

Don’t forget he is playing for his nfl life and a new contract. The one game I did see and the highlights showed him running with authority. It may only help a little, but he will not be falling this season.

by hevchv on Sep 4, 2008 10:49 AM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

JJ will end up in Denver next year and lead the league in rushing :P

We all leave footprints in the sands of time, just watch out for the discarded fish hooks!

by Hawkwind on Sep 4, 2008 10:52 AM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

JJ was inactive

That was a bit of a surprise, admittedly.

We all leave footprints in the sands of time, just watch out for the discarded fish hooks!

by Hawkwind on Sep 8, 2008 6:23 AM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

donte' culpepper just retired

Can we bring him in and get rid of Matt. Donte’ has a career qb rating of over 90. He says that he retired because noone would give him a fair shot at competing for a starting position and that he didn’t feel confortable waiting for one of his fellow brethren to go down with injury. I personally think he should have never fired his agent and gone on without representation.

by hevchv on Sep 4, 2008 11:41 AM MDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Swallow some pride Donté!

Be a back-up in GB or KC, you’ll be starting before the end of the season! Reunite with Randy and play for the base salary in New England! Frakking moron.

We all leave footprints in the sands of time, just watch out for the discarded fish hooks!

by Hawkwind on Sep 4, 2008 11:49 AM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yes

In KC he would start because Brodie sucks. In GB he would start because Aaron can’t take a hit.

by hevchv on Sep 4, 2008 11:56 AM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Don't get me started on Daunte

Did anyone read his “open letter the NFL” about a week ago? It was a complete joke and made him look/sound like a pampered superstar who still thinks he’s a top tier QB, IMO. At some point, you swallow your pride and take what you can get and make the best of your opportunity, or in Daunte’s case you retire and blame the league for “black-balling” you.

by cgolden on Sep 4, 2008 12:24 PM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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