A Win at Home Revolves Around Kurt Warner

by Andrew602 on Nov 12, 2009 12:57 PM MST

As the Seattle Seahawks come to Arizona to face off with the division leading Arizona Cardinals this Sunday, I ask myself one question - how will Kurt Warner perform at home? After his 6 turnover performance at home against a struggling Carolina Panthers team just two weeks ago, the Cardinals and Warner arose with more problems in the same home that they had been dominant at in years past. The Cardinals had the best home record in the NFC in the last two years and it's also a place that propelled them into the Super Bowl last year. Kurt Warner had always played better at home, but this season it's been anything but that, and I can't quite put my finger on it. Let's dive into Warner's stats at home compared to road games, where he's been so great.

	Comp/Att	%	Yards	YPA	TD	INT	Rate	Sacks
Home	109/180	60.6	1164	6.47	6	9	69.8	10
Away	98/135	72.6	1011	7.49	10	2	112.3	5

The baffling part is that Kurt Warner, who notoriously has struggled on the road in outdoor conditions, has murdered opposing secondaries. Away from home, he only has two interceptions, one being a hail mary against Seattle, while the other was an overthrown pass in New York. Other then that, Warner has been near perfect, completing 72% of his passes and throwing 10 touchdowns. The only thing I can determine is the difference in opposing defenses.

This season, teams that have rushed 4 defenders have had the most success against Warner. In that situation, he's throwing 65.6% of his passes and has also thrown the bulk of his interceptions with 7. The Panthers, 49ers, Texans, and Colts are all teams that can rush the passer without having to bring the added blitz. Is this a coincidence? I don't think so. In the three home losses, Warner was sacked 9 times, which obviously was a large factor in his poor performances.

One of the things that Warner has done successful, involves multiple tight end formations. When the Cardinals use 1 or less tight end formations, Warner is completing 63.15% of passes, with 8 touchdowns and 11 picks for a 72.85 quarterback rating. When they use 2 or more tight ends, he completes 81.75% of his passes for 3 touchdowns and 0 picks for a 117.8 quarterback rating. The added tight ends provide extra protection and more importantly, extra weapons in the passing game(2 tight ends scored last week in Warner's best game of the season).

Are the Cardinals trying to live up to fan expectations, or are they just inconsistent? Either way, this team will need to find a way to win at home if they want to make a push the second half of the season.

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Comments

I like the analysis Andrew

That’s great stuff.

I noticed as well that putting an extra TE in the package has given Warner that little bit of extra time he needs to make reads and confident throws. Even if they just get a chip block and then run out as the check down it has been far more effective.

The question that I keep asking myself is why in the games that have big name pass rushers like Carolina and the Colts that Whiz hasn’t used more TE help on guys like Freeney and Peppers?

Section 102, Row 18

by CardsFan08 on Nov 12, 2009 3:38 PM MST reply actions

Good point

I think most of us keep wondering the same thing

What? I didn't break it, I was just testing its durability, and then I placed it in the woods becuase it's made out of wood and I just thought he should be with his family.
Revenge of the Birds

by Andrew602 on Nov 12, 2009 3:45 PM MST up reply actions

great post

This is a great post because you learn something you will probably never read in a newspaper or supposed expert analysis. The two tight end formation appears to be far more effective based on these stats. How about forwarding this information to Whisenhut (hopefully he knows this already) It makes perfect sense to anybody who has watched Feeney and Peppers totally dominate without double-teaming. A tight end on the outside for a quick block and then serve as a checkoff receiver. Thanks for the research on this. Where the heck did you come up with these stats?

by BPaul on Nov 12, 2009 3:59 PM MST reply actions

I can't tell if you're being sarcastic but

I got them from ESPN. If you dig deep enough you can find them. Plus it takes a little time because some stats aren’t given. It usually takes me a while to put together some stats.

What? I didn't break it, I was just testing its durability, and then I placed it in the woods becuase it's made out of wood and I just thought he should be with his family.
Revenge of the Birds

by Andrew602 on Nov 13, 2009 9:39 AM MST up reply actions

no sarcasm

Boy, I sure didn’t mean to come off that way. I was impressed with what you came up with. I’d still like to know where you can find stats like this that isolate the results when using a one tight end or two tight end formation. Thanks again for the good info.

by BPaul on Nov 13, 2009 11:41 AM MST up reply actions

no sarcasm

Sorry, when I read your first line I immediately responded and missed your answer.

by BPaul on Nov 13, 2009 11:43 AM MST up reply actions

Ok just checking

It’s hard to tell through a comment how somebody is responding. So yeah just go to the stats section of ESPN, or you can look at players individually.

What? I didn't break it, I was just testing its durability, and then I placed it in the woods becuase it's made out of wood and I just thought he should be with his family.
Revenge of the Birds

by Andrew602 on Nov 13, 2009 2:02 PM MST up reply actions

Agreed

it comes down to the front lines just like always. whoever can win the battle in the trenches is most likely going to win the game. I know its obvious yet I will say it again. Protect Warner and he protects the ball. if Warner protects the ball the defense is protected from being on the field too long which then equates into a big red W.

Never do card tricks for the group you play poker with.

by sc464 on Nov 12, 2009 5:07 PM MST reply actions

It's such a simple concept

Yet there’s always something that prevents them from following this.

What? I didn't break it, I was just testing its durability, and then I placed it in the woods becuase it's made out of wood and I just thought he should be with his family.
Revenge of the Birds

by Andrew602 on Nov 13, 2009 9:40 AM MST up reply actions

Great post

Its a shame that some of us on here are better at finding this stuff than actual Sportswriters are.

Lifelong Arizona Cardinals/Chicago Bears fan.

No band-wagoner fans allowed, pick a team and stick with em, throughout the good and the bad.

by JoeCB1991 on Nov 12, 2009 6:27 PM MST reply actions

+1

This is interesting. I wonder how much of it has to do with defenses reacting differently to our multiple-TE sets? In other words, when we roll Becht out, do teams automatically hunker down for a run play?

The difference between the home and away games is startling. It’s funny to me to hear the guys talk about the identity of being an Away team, when last year it was the exact opposite.

From what you’ve put together, it seems like the game-plan should always start off with a lot of power looks — to shake-up defenses, give Warner the opportunities to get into a rhythm, and try out the gun-game — and migrate to spread as the game moves on…

by tw3kr on Nov 13, 2009 12:12 PM MST reply actions

I think that's what has worked so well in our wins this year

But yeah it does sound weird to consider the Cardinals a good road team. I’m actually not even worried when the Cards play on the road, something that always had me concerned before

What? I didn't break it, I was just testing its durability, and then I placed it in the woods becuase it's made out of wood and I just thought he should be with his family.
Revenge of the Birds

by Andrew602 on Nov 13, 2009 2:04 PM MST up reply actions