Cardinals, Vikings: Prime Time Matchup Preview and Analysis
by Undrafteds on Dec 4, 2009 6:12 PM MST
35 comments
The media is fickle. That much is a given. It is boggling though how former players and coaches alike, presumed experts about everything football and particularly NFL football, can give off such amateur assessments sometimes. The example I provide here is not even that shocking necessarily, but it is relevant anyway. Watch this clip before reading on.
So the conclusion by our ESPN analysts is that the Vikings will win because:
1) The Vikings don't have any weaknesses.
2) Brett Favre is playing great.
3) Arizona has a 2-3 record at home.
4) The Vikings are great at stopping the run and rushing the passer.
Let me roll up my sleeves and tell you what is really going down.
1) The Vikings opponents have a combined record of 45-76. I would bet that has something to do with them appearing to not have any weaknesses.
2) Brett Favre is playing great. So is Kurt Warner. Favre has 2,874 yards passing with 24 TDs and 3 INTs, while Warner 2,718 yards with 20 TDs and 11 INTs. One thing not addressed likely falls more on the Vikings O-line more so than Favre, but it is still worth pointing out that he has been sacked 22 times compared to Warner's 16. Is there an obvious, huge advantage for the Vikings here that I am missing?
3) Arizona is 2-3 at home, which means they are 5-1 on the road. Yeah, and? Being that winning on the road is tougher to do, I fail to see how playing at home demonstrates an additional obstacle for Arizona? The 2-3 record does not cause a mental handicap for the players, as the Cardinals fans remember vividly watching the Cardinals play very well at home last season. Sure, it is unfortunate that Arizona had their worst three games of the season on their own field, but it is nothing that will cause anyone wearing red and white to think twice about.
4) The Vikings are the No.2 ranked rushing defense with 898 yards allowed on the season, and the Cardinals are the No.13 ranked squad having given up 1195 yards. No one will deny that Minnesota's rush defense is stout, but remember, statistics can be used to prove anything. It would be an incomplete analysis to fail to mention that teams have run on Arizona 36 more times, which can partially explain the extra 297 yards accrued by their opponents.
If you take the average yards per carry that Minnesota has allowed (3.9) and multiply that by 36, you get just over 140 yards. Hypothetically speaking, if the Vikings had been run on 36 more times, the bottom line is that Cardinals would have given up 157 more yards on the ground in the same amount of chances.
How much of an advantage do the Vikings actually have in rush defense? Well, who have they faced?
Minnesota has gone up against Frank Gore, Ryan Grant, Steven Jackson, Ray Rice, Rashad Mendenhall and Ryan Grant again.
Arizona has battled Frank Gore, Maurice Jones-Drew, Brandon Jacobs, DeAngelo Williams, Steven Jackson and Chris Johnson.
Although neither string of names is one you wish to face, Arizona's opponents have featured four of the top six running backs in the league this season, and Chris Johnson needs an asterisk. He is on pace to break the record for the most rushing yards in a single NFL season.
How much better is the Vikings' run defense compared to the Cardinals'? Taking everything into account, just a little bit.
How about their fierce pass rush?
Well, the Vikings do have the most sacks in the league with 40, but Arizona has 32, which is tied for third most in the league. Factor in the fact that Favre has been laid down six more times than Warner, and this is essentially a toss-up.
Again I ask, where is this huge Minnesota advantage that the media will have you believe clearly exists?
It doesn't.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Revenge of the Birds' (ROTB) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of ROTB's editors.
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Right again
I couldn’t agree more: the analysis you get on major networks and other media outlets is often embarrassingly shallow. You get far more serious analysis from posts on this site than anything I read or hear from CBS, ESPN, Fox, etc. You mainly get meaningless generalities. I haven’t heard any discussion about the Vikings weak schedule, which you present here. The only thing I would question in your analysis is the idea that the Vikings and Cardinals pass rush is a toss-up. My guess is the basic front four of the Vikings may be better as a unit in rushing the passer and as a result they may not have to blitz as often as the Cardinals, who have recorded alot of sacks through the blitz. Allen is a force on the outside that the Cardinals don’t have. Still, some of this disadvantage can be offset by continued use of the blitz, something I wished they’d used more in the Tennessee game. Good stuff in the post: I learn more from these than anywhere else.
Appreciate it BP
ROTB has always been a good source of insight for me as a reader. I am glad to be a part of the writing end now.
Well, true, the Vikings have a more talented pass rush, but I guess I was saying statistically, as far as net worth per actual sack
http://undrafteds.com/
1. Of the vikings opponents 76 loses, 10 are there because the vikings beat them. You cant fault the vikings for beating their opponents. I will admit the vikings schedule is a bit on the easy side, but they are doing what great teams do, take care of the weaker opponents and step up to the challenge when the face the stronger ones.
2. Brett Favre and Kurt Warner are both having fantastic seasons but Favre is having a better one. He would be the MVP frontrunner it werent for Drew Bress and Peyton Manning
3. I’ll admit that the cardinals 2-3 home record is meaningless. It doesnt prove anything and the cardinals are just as dangerous on the road as they are at home.
4. You cant question the vikings run defense. They have been ranked #1 in run D THREE STRAIGHT years. The cardinals do have a decent run D but they got shredded by the Panthers earlier in the season. The vikings havent allowed a 100 yard runner in almost three years now.
5. As another cardinal fan pointed out, the vikings pass rush is the best in the league because they hardly need to blitz to put preassure on the QB. The cardinals are also at good rushing the passer but it is not a toss up.
6. I’m a vikings fan but i also understand that this game will not be easy to win. I know if the cardinals play a complete game they can beat the vikings. The reason most people have chosen the vikings to win this game is because they have a been a far more consistent team this season. anyways, i hope we have a good, hard fought game
by All Day, All Night on Dec 4, 2009 8:41 PM MST reply actions
some good points, but...
All Day All Night, you make some good points. But don’t assume too much.
1. I don’t fault the Vikings for winning, I am merely pointing out that their schedule has been favorable, one reason not to get too carried away with what 10-1 means.
2. Brett Favre is having a better season, sure, but to say that is why the Vikings will win, neglecting to point out that Warner is also having a great season, is poor analysis (on the part of ESPN).
3. we agree 100%
4. I gave the Vikings props, saying no one can deny they are stout. I was pointing out that the Cards run D is also pretty good. Sure Carolina racked up a lot of yard on Arizona, with one of the best tandems in the league. Factor in the Cardinals have battled 4 of the best 6 RBs in the league, and the gap separating the two teams is not as huge as the reputations of the two teams suggest.
5. Again, I say it is statistically a toss up. I think the Vikings pass rush is more talented. Statistically though, 40 sacks given and 22 taken vs 32 given and 16 taken, again there is not much of a gap between the two as far as net sackage.
6. I think this will be a great game!
essentially my point was, there is not a big difference between these teams once you break it all down. they are more evenly matched than the media will have us believe.
http://undrafteds.com/
Just curious...
The Vikings opponents have a combined record of 45-76. I would bet that has something to do with them appearing to not have any weaknesses.
If you would say the same thing if the Cardinals were playing the Saints… whose opponents have a combined record of 49 – 74.
One thing not addressed likely falls more on the Vikings O-line more so than Favre…
Or perhaps it’s because teams still defend us like we have TJack at QB and are stacking 8 or 9 in the box with the soul purpose of stopping purple jesus and as a result are getting burned by Brett Favre.
Again I ask, where is this huge Minnesota advantage that the media will have you believe clearly exists?
It doesn’t.
Huge advantage? More like most people just think the Vikings are the better overall team, and rightly so. We’ve earned it.
The spread on the game is only 3 points in favor of the Vikings. So I’m not sure where huge factors into this equation. Unless you are reading Daily Norseman, I don’t think outsiders are necessarily giving us a huge advantage.
better team
EV, I too believe the Vikings have been the better overall team to date.
You make a good point about records, although I come up with AZ opponents having a 55-66 overall record.
The O-line of the Vikes is a rallying point for Cardinals fans, or at least I would like it to be something to get excited about. I see opportunities for us to get after Favre.
Also, good point about the spread. If you look at the predictions of who thinks each will win, the Vikings are favored heavily though. 87% in Yahoo pick the Vikings to win.
http://undrafteds.com/
~my mistake~
sorry didn’t see you were talking about the Saints record not the Cardinals
good point, but remember the Saints have a signature win, hammering the Patriots in prime time. The Vikings are still looking for one. maybe this is it?
http://undrafteds.com/
If you ask me...
the Monday night win over GB and then again in GB was a pretty signature win. Especially considering the circumstances… Brett Favre beating the team he played with for 16 years, throwing 7 TDs and 0 Ints.
As much as I hate the Packers, they are a decent team and they have the same record as the Patriots (7-4).
The game tomorrow should be a good one.
+1
Have to agree with that. The Pack, despite a ugly loss to TB are a solid team and Rodgers is having a pro bowl year with a very dangerous set of WR’s.
At the same time though, a beat down on the ESPN worshiped Pat’s stands out more.
They are who we thought they were!
I think
that the Patriots are probably a bit over-rated. They have a young, not-as-talented-as-they-once-were Defense. In light of that, I wasn’t as impressed as some rubes over the Saints “big win.”
This will be a good game and imho, a great test for us against a strong team. I think we SHOULD win against the Cardinals but you could just as easily upset us too.
Good luck and here’s to a good game! SKOL VIKINGS!!
Wow
Heres a surprise a bunch of Viking fans thinking the Saints are over rated hahaha
by mississippisaintsfan on Dec 6, 2009 4:23 AM MST up reply actions
Its not an attack against the Viks
Undrafteds is talking about the media’s coverage, he is not insinuating that the Viks aren’t the better team. He is arguing HOW much better they are in actuality versus how good the media portrays them to be.
Viks are one of the elite teams in the NFL right now, no doubt about it.
If Warner plays lights out and the D plays inspired, we can definitely win. But EasternVike is right, it all comes down to consistency.
Hoping for a highlight filled, hard fought game.
They are who we thought they were!
Jessesb nailed it!
Thanks J, that is precisely it. It is obvious the Vikings have been to date one of the best teams in the league. Some say they are the most complete team in the league. But exactly~ how much better? We will find out.
Also, as much as I want to see my team play their A-game, they have made a habit of falling flat in prime time, and this year, at home. It is possible that the Vikings blow out the Cardinals. I don’t think that will happen, but if you look at their weapons, and knowing our vulnerabilities in pass coverage, this has the potential to be ugly. Me? I am banking on AZ bringing it, every bit of it, and knocking the Vikes out of balance to stall that juggernaut O.
http://undrafteds.com/
if you want to crown em then go ahead and crown their ass .
The Devil Birds just got cha
by DaCards on Dec 5, 2009 11:38 AM MST via mobile reply actions
can i just say....
ARIZONA CARDINALS 31
MINNY-SODAH VIKINGS 17
by fansincejakenrob on Dec 5, 2009 12:29 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
I can't believe you nailed it.
Just 1 point off. Can you give me next weeks score as well.
Life's too short. Be a fan. Orlando Magic, Arizona Cardinals,Tampa Bay Rays and of course "the U"! What a winning combo.
by hevchv on Dec 6, 2009 9:49 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
undrafteds.com is awesome by the way.
But this was my thought exactly: who have they played?
Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Greenbay were the toughest teams they’ve faced. If you want to give it to them, they played ’Frisco when they were peaking. lol The last 3: Chicago, Seattle, and Detroit.
Yeah, they are a good team, but they’re schedule has been a breeze. But that’s what you can expect from the “experts” at ESPN. But I wouldn’t be taking “expert” advice from Herm Edwards anyway.lol
lifeinthepit00= THANKS
hey I appreciate the compliment on my blog undrafteds.com. I just signed a contract with SportsFanLive, to be a partner blog. I write for SFL covering the Cardinals for their fan content for NFL.com called Blog Blitz. Anyway, thanks for checking it out.
http://undrafteds.com/
I hope Warner plays
It will be intersting to see how the vikes “D” stack up against a team that can run and throw
We hear so much about their “D” with Warner at the helm they shouldget a good test
I’m not sure if this is a prediction or wishful thinking
Cards 31
Vikes 27
by mississippisaintsfan on Dec 6, 2009 4:27 AM MST reply actions
The fact it is in OT,
And New Orleans has the ball in Redskin territory. So…
A man from Dallas who bleeds red, not silver and blue.
Don't forget special teams
Vikings are 3rd in the league in kick return average
Cardinals are 7th
From the only TRUE North division
by thewild_viking_twins on Dec 6, 2009 5:03 PM MST reply actions
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