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What Can the Arizona Cardinals Expect From the 31st Overall Pick?

By the time the Arizona Cardinals step up to the podium for the first time on April 25th a couple of hours will have past and 30 other team will have chosen their first round draft pick.  For a franchise that's held a top 15 overall pick in the NFL draft in 13 of the previous 15 drafts, the Cardinals front office will be on some uncommon ground. Recent Cardinals draft picks have become almost instant starters and solid contributors as rookies but can we expect the same results this year?

Here's a look at each player who was selected 31st overall in the previous ten years.

 

Star-divide

2008 - Kenny Phillips (FS) - New York Giants: Phillips' rookie season mirrored many of this list (16 games, 3 starts) and the Giants expect him to be a starter in 2009. Despite not getting many starts Phillips still racked up 67 tackles and a pick. 

2007 - Greg Olsen (TE) - Chicago 31st_overall_picks_mediumBears: Olson parlayed a tremendous combine performance into a first round selection and considering he's been on the passing-challenged Bears for the past two seasons ,he's been pretty decent. He's still not a full time starter but he's picked up 11 starts over the two seasons and is progressing quickly. He was a Pro Bowl alternate in 2008 and his 54 receptions, 574 yards and five TDs are quite remarkable considering the passing limitations in Chicago.

2006 - Kelly Jennings (CB) - Seattle Seahawks: Jennings has been up and down in his three seasons as a pro. He's played in every game so far but he started two games as rookie, 15 games as a sophomore but lost his starting job last season resulting in just six starts. He's still a decent tackler but his ball skills (one pick in 23 starts) leave plenty to be desired.

2005 - Mike Patterson (DT) - Philadelphia Eagles: Patterson started seven games rookie season and has started 47 of 48 games over the past three seasons. He's averaged 51 tackles and just over two sacks per season since entering the league and his play was impressive enough for the Eagles to offer him a seven year extension after just his second season.

2004 - RaShaun Woods (WR) - San Francisco 49ers: Woods was a record setting receiver at Oklahoma State but his career never got off the ground. He lasted two seasons in the NFL with the Niners, playing all 14 games of his career in his rookie season (7 rec, 160 yards, 1TD). He spent the '05 season on IR with a thumb injury and was traded to the Chargers the following off season. San Diego cut him just four months later though and his NFL career was over after the Broncos tried to claim him off waivers but he couldn't pass a physical. He spent a short amount of time in NFL Europa and the CFL but couldn't revive his career.

2003 - Nnamdi Asomugha (CB) - Oakland Raiders: Asomugha wasn't a full time starter until his third season with the Raiders, after starting just eight games in his first two seasons, but he's since established himself as the best cover corner in the NFL. He's started 61 games over the past four seasons and the closest thing that the league has to a true 'shut down' corner.

2002 - Robert Thomas (OLB) - St. Louis Rams: Thomas started 30 games for the Rams over his first three seasons but he's since played for the Packers and Raiders without ever establishing himself as much more than decent backup and special teams player. He's started just 20 games over the past four seasons but his best year came in 2003 when he had 72 tackles and two sacks for the Rams.

2001 - Reggie Wayne (WR) - Indianapolis Colts: Wayne started 16 games during his first two seasons but he's been the Colts full time starter for the past six seasons. Has hasn't missed a game midway through his rookie season and has averaged 1,178 yards and eight TDs since becoming a full time starter in 2003.

2000 - Keith Bullock (LB) - Tennnessee Titans: Bullock didn't become a full-time starter until his third season but he's started 112 consecutive games for the Titans and has averaged over 125 tackles per season during that span. Bulluck's been one of the most consistent and productive linebackers since 2002 and he's been voted to one All-Pro team and one Pro Bowl squad.

1999 - Al Wilson (LB) - Denver Broncos: Wilson, a former Tennessee Volunteer, became an instant contributor for the Broncos starting 12 games as a rookie and playing in all 16. He career lasted eight seasons (119 starts) before a serious neck injury effectively ended his career at the age of 29. He was a voted to one All-Pro team and five Pro Bowls and he finished his career with 580 tackles, 21.5 sacks and five interceptions.

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Considering the unexpected nature of the NFL draft, seven or eight quality players out of ten picks are odds that can't be too disapointing. With Woods being the only true 'bust' of the group, it's somewhat encouraging when trying to project what kind of player the Cardinals will select. One might even argue that the odds of finding a quality starter at the end of round one might be better than finding one in the top five or ten picks. Are you surprised by these ten or do you think this is just an analomy?

0 recs  |  Comment 18 comments |

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Not a surprise

I’m not surprised by your research, for a lot of reasons. One, the better teams pick at the bottom of the first round, and those teams usually have stable coaching staffs, good veteran leadership, not a lot of glaring weaknesses, etc., so there isn’t as much pressure on their first rounder to be the ‘savior,’ plus a player doesn’t get to slack off on a team that has a Ray Lewis as it’s leader, or a Jeff Fisher as it’s head coach. Second, it is less likely that someone picked at #31 will hold out, miss most of training camp, and be chronically behind his entire rookie season. Third, I still think that locker room chemistry has to be better if a rookie isn’t outearning everybody on the team before he’s ever played a down. Last, I don’t think scouts so overthink later picks as much as they do early ones. The guys who picked at the bottom of the first are usually being judged by what they did on the field during games as opposed to what they did at the combine.

Good article, nicely done.

by Long Beach on Apr 2, 2009 11:22 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

Excellent way to put it, they fall into a great situation to succed as oposed to being drafted by the Lions or the Raiders… I remember all those Cardinals draft picks that held out forever and never did anything… but that is gone, this is a new regime, and hopefully we will be drafting very late in the first round for a long time… GO CARDINALS

paco cabrera

by pacocab on Apr 2, 2009 11:41 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

well said

I’ll raise my glass to picking the late 20’s or 30’s every year.

by Bezekira on Apr 2, 2009 11:47 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

The odds are with us.

Hey, hey, hey hey hey, watch the language, ok? I have a family.
Revenge of the Birds

by Andrew602 on Apr 2, 2009 12:06 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

In my mock...

I have the Cards either taking Lesean McCoy or Tyson Jackson the DE out of LSU and I honestly think that both of those picks have the possibility to bloom into fantastic players.

I hate the new "protect the QB" rules, but its ok because it's still legal to chip the QB's fingernail polish, but if you tear his skirt it's a 10 yard penalty & an automatic 1st Down.

by Aces on Apr 2, 2009 12:10 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

I can see that as well

Welcome to ROTB Aces

Hey, hey, hey hey hey, watch the language, ok? I have a family.
Revenge of the Birds

by Andrew602 on Apr 2, 2009 12:13 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the welcome!

=)

I hate the new "protect the QB" rules, but its ok because it's still legal to chip the QB's fingernail polish, but if you tear his skirt it's a 10 yard penalty & an automatic 1st Down.

by Aces on Apr 2, 2009 3:12 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Tyson Jackson?

Do the Cardinals really need a first round pick on a defense end? I’m guessing you’re not a big fan of Calais Campbell…..

Welcome to ROTB though.

by Bezekira on Apr 2, 2009 12:15 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jackson

Would be a good compliment to CC but I see your point. I think we could get someone just as good to compliment CC in the later rounds as this draft is loaded with good defensive linemen.

by Pyromnc on Apr 2, 2009 1:44 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

With Smith gone...

we’ll get to see more of what Iwebema can do. And I think you’ll all be pretty impressed.

by hevchv on Apr 2, 2009 8:47 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Iwebema

I am excited to see what he can do as Whiz speaks very highly of him but I think we should still add depth to the position. Maybe not in the 1st round unless someone highly, and I mean HIGHLY, unlikely to fall to us at 31 like Brian Orakpo but probably 3rd round or later to add a little more depth to the position.

by Pyromnc on Apr 3, 2009 8:48 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think we are so

Used to seeing rookies play a lot in their first year. Its nice we have enough depth to let the rookies develop and then come in.

Hey, hey, hey hey hey, watch the language, ok? I have a family.
Revenge of the Birds

by Andrew602 on Apr 3, 2009 10:40 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually I am a huge fan of Calais Campbell...

I just think Tyson Jackson would be great either on the other side of Campbell or he would be strong in the line rotation. Calais Campbell will develop very well I think. However, it wouldn’t hurt to have someone developing with him while Bertrand Berry is still around to guide them.

I hate the new "protect the QB" rules, but its ok because it's still legal to chip the QB's fingernail polish, but if you tear his skirt it's a 10 yard penalty & an automatic 1st Down.

by Aces on Apr 2, 2009 3:11 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like Jackson but,...

I’ve become a believer in the draft a 1st round RB. There are lots of talented DE/LB’s in the draft and I think we can get a good one in the 2nd, but I think the need to balance the offense and get a quality back is something that should be addressed with as many to choose from as possible.

by CardsFan08 on Apr 2, 2009 6:30 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

Couldn’t agree more. I normally don’t like the draft a RB in the first round because you can still find good talent at that position later in the draft but this years crop seems to not be very talented compared to past drafts. I think we have to go RB in 1st round and then probably either the 2nd or 3rd look for someone that can play a DE/OLB position. I would keep my eye on Cody Brown in the 3rd round. If he is there at our pick I bet we go with him.

by Pyromnc on Apr 3, 2009 8:53 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Doubt

That Tyson Jackson will be there when we pick.

by Pyromnc on Apr 2, 2009 1:43 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

very true

some are billing him as a possible top 10 but then again I’ve seen some mocks with him in the second

by Bezekira on Apr 3, 2009 10:26 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

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