Good write up.

$2 says – The three locks + Keyes, Lewis

Francisco costs too much and while he’s a great special teamer, so is Lewis for almost half the costs.

Maybe I try to over simply everything but there are so many variables with this group it’s hard to separate the safeties from the corners. Ideally I’d like to keep two free safeties, two strong safeties and then either the next best player regardless of position or a player that’s versatile enough to play both positions or even corner. Here are the variables that make my head spin……

 - Is Rolle going to be a true safety or will he bounce back and forth between safety and nickel corner?
 - Is Wilson still going to be allowed to roam around on passing downs and basically be a linebacker?
 - If Rolle is a nickel corner and Wilson essentially becomes a linebacker on passing downs, then you need to quality safeties and out side of Rashad Johnson, who inspires that confidence?

The good news is that they’ve got options. I’ll echo everyone else sentiments about Francisco and Lewis being similar players and I’d be weary of either of them in coverage for any extended playing time. Maybe Dennis Keyes can be the ‘center field’ option that they’re looking for or maybe just maybe……Ralph Brown steps into a safety role (he wouldn’t be the first veteran corner to make the part time transition).

I think Bezekira nails it when he raises all those “what ifs.”

I’d start with defensive schemes in the secondary – what roles does Billy Davis see for his DB’s in various down & distance and game situation schemes?

Not only will he need to evaluate how each safety meets the requirements of each role, he will also need to assess how well – in all the various scenarios – how each DB meshes with his fellow teammates in the secondary.

Then there’s the matter of skill-set – Size. Speed. Quickness. Hitting Power. Wrap Up Ability. Instincts. Ball Skills combined with the mental aspects of the game: Reading keys. Taking proper angles. Knowing when or when not to take risks etc. The trade-offs are boundless – One guy hits like a ton but lacks functional speed. Another can cover like a glove, but gets outbeaten for loose balls. Another is death on interceptions, but is out of position too often.

Sorting this all out may be easier when it comes to veterans (because each of these guys has a body of work and there’s all that tape). But to evaluate youngsters like Dowling, Keyes or Rashad Johnson (who don’t have a lot of tape and are more likely to be inconsistent from week to week) they’ve got to be given enough reps in order to know what they can or cannot do. On a veteran football team, those reps may be hard to come by.

We can all project whether Rolle plays more nickel corner and surrenders more traditional FS time to Johnson. Or whether Keyes becomes the logical backup to A-Dub. Or whether Francisco is in the fight for his life to remain on the roster.

But – due to all the variables – we probably won’t know until the 3rd week of camp – if then.

Everybody forgets Francisco defending Washington in single coverage at the 2-min when Roethlisberger tried to hustle a play past the defense =/

Regardless, I’m pretty sure you guys are off on the personnel assessment here. Coaches like Francisco, he plays a lot and fairly well — from what I’ve seen he’s always very close to the ball at the end of most plays, a good sign — he had 56 tackles last year as a part-timer, for goodness sake. That’s 6th on the team, more than Keith Lewis and Matt Ware combined (the others don’t really count, now do they?). [[Here’s an interesting stat: Sean Morey had more individual tackles (17) than Matt Ware (13, only 2 more than Jerheme Urban).]] Finally, when you look at the pricepoint, I think it becomes obvious that they brought in Lewis to challenge Ware, rather than Francisco. Technically Lewis & AF are both SS on the depth chart, but I don’t give that much credibility at this point; all those guys seem to go back and forth between sides. The bottom line is, they wouldn’t pay Lewis 5th-safety money if they thought he was going to be our 2nd SS.

I don’t think Francisco is on the bubble this year, I think he’s a lock, barring some stupendous depth chart upset. He can play safety and special teams, something Ware can’t say, and arguably Lewis as well. Realistically, Francisco & Johnson should be the ones battling back and forth for playing time (somebody’s got to play safety while Wilson does his thing, right?) while whoever’s left acts as depth.

I expect Ware to be the biggest loser this off-season; to me, it’s between him, Lewis and Keyes. Dowling will probably go to the practice squad if he isn’t dumped outright, and I think they’ll probably give Keyes another year on the practice squad if he can’t beat out Ware or Lewis yet (although another play like the one here might do it: http://www.nfl.com/players/denniskeyes/profile?id=KEY175574). It’s hard to say at this point; Keyes could only be competing with Dowling for the practice squad. Matt Ware looks to be the only thing standing between the lot of them and a roster spot.