Evaluating Matt Leinart's Expectations For 2010

My expectations, while not lofty, still providea basic starting point for how I feel about Leinart. So, here we go:

1) I expect a minimum of 9 wins next season – Considering the tools we have in place on offense and defense, and barring any drastic injuries to star players, I feel that even a middle-tier quarterback should be able to put up 9 wins (especially in the NFC West).

2) I expect more touchdowns than turnovers – I do NOT want to see Leinart with stats that say things like “15 touchdowns and 24 interceptions.” To me, that is unsuccessful. I expect him to have a positive TD:Int ratio.

3) I expect efficient time management – he’s had several years to learn from Warner which should have provided him with some clock management skills. I expect him to put those on display.

4) I expect a CONFIDENT leader – Like it or not, he’s going to have to become the offesnive leader. He’s going to touch the ball on every play, and the team needs to have faith in him. For that to happen, he needs to be decisive and not shaky in the pocket. He needs to run onto the feel knowing he’s going to lead the team to a score. By being a leader, he can earn the fan’s trust as well as the trust of his team.

5) I expect him to study – this is an important one for me. I don’t expect Matt to be perfect, but I expect him to be diligent. He’s surrounded in this lague by arguably some of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game. Most of them have one thing in common (other than winning) and that is the time they spend off the field studying their opponents. We all know how difficult it is to confuse guys like Warner, Manning, Favre and Brees. It’s because they put in the time. Leinart has had time to see how much work Kurt Warner put forth just to make sure he knew what to expect out of a defense on Sunday. I expect Matt Leinart to do the same. I don’t expect him to be perfect, but I expect him to be prepared.

While I know not all of these are quantifiable expectations ( I can’t exactly monitor Matt’s study time and preparation), I believe it will be evident on the field. If he isn’t prepared for a defense, we’ll see his inability to make a quick decision and we’ll see the Leinart in the pocket who looks scared and shaky. If he DOES do these things, I expect we’ll probably BEAT my first expectation and hit double digit wins again. Especially since I expect the Cardinals are going to shore up the defense.

I was planning on writing a fanpost about this very topic so I’ll lay out my thoughts in here. To simply things I won’t try to lay out an expected win totals or individual stats but instead focus on an overall quality of play. The more I look back on Matty’s first season and early in his second season and try to project that into 2010, I get the feeling that we should look to Eli Manning’s production as a model for how to handle/expect from Leinart.

I think Eli and Matty are both fairly similar players in that neither of them have really big arms or really do any one thing amazingly well but overall can do a little bit of everything. Eli has the advantage of a much better running game and at times over his tenure has had a much better defense but Matty will have weapons that are far superior to anything Eli has ever had. All that being said, if you look at Eli’s career he posts productive numbers but certainly nothing that’s going to wow anyone. If Matty can match Eli’s average season (around 60% completion percentage and in the 6.5 to 6.9 yards per attempt range), I think we’ll be just fine. The touchdowns will vary depending on how much we’re getting from the running game but the big stat that Matty will have to control is interceptions. If you look at Eli’s career, the Giants seem to live and die with how many picks he ends up throwing.

I think Leinart will be capable of getting hot at times (ala Eli in the playoffs two years ago) but I could also see him really struggling at times (ala Eli in that very same season when he threw 20 picks). Overall though I think Matty has all of the tools to become a very successful NFL QB and he’s capable of taking this team to third 3rd consecutive playoff appearance.

At least 8 wins

3400 yards, 22 Touchdowns, 12 Picks, 63% completion rate. Maybe a couple of Touchdown runs like he had back in 2006.

-A winning season, we have too much explosiveness to be sub par.
-Positive TDtoINT ratio as prev said.

Thats all i expect out of the offense considerin our personel.

However defense personnel is up in the air right now, to call the season.

I personally think that NUMBER7 is going to go insane, absolutely insane next season. He’s gonna look the guy that went to 2 National Championships.
I’m thinking 30td, 12pics.
+3800 yards.
ITs all there for that to happen.

I think his success will depend on a bunch of different factors. The run game will be a major factor because I think we will start to see a different offense because the offense we have been running was in place because of Warner so the amount of run to pass plays will change and how many times we go to 4 and 5 wide receiver sets will change. The offense line will be an interesting thing to see how the protection is and who is starting. I think Levi could have a better season because he is more of a run blocking tackle and that could help him. Our defense will be a big question next season because I don’t think we will win as many shoot outs, so are defense will have to step up and play more consistent. We also have to look at how much change could happen on the team with the amount of turnover that can happen. I think he will post good numbers with a nice TD to INT ratio if the ground game is strong and he doesn’t have to win every game by out throwing the other QB.

Beanie and Timmy will carry the load for him. Though, he is decent with the play action, so I expect Fitz to have fun too.

I can see Leinart having an ok year. Something like 3000 yards, 15-20 TDs and 10-15 Ints. I think the offense is going to be heavily reliant upon the running game of Beanie and Timmy. If the defense can improve I still see the Cards winning 10 games and the division for the 3rd straight year.

I just don’t see matty doing that. With Warner it was still only a 10 win team. With a middle of the road QB this is an 8-8 team +/- one win. I don’t see a top 10 running game suddenly materializing either. I think the run game is improving and will do so, but I don’t see our run game in the top half of the league next year. So if our run game is around 20th and our pass game drops to about 16th, we are an 8-8 team unless the D really steps up. I hope I’m wrong and who knows after trades and the draft. GO CARDS!

Cardinals were 28th in rushing yards per game in 2009 and 19th in yards per carry. In 2008 Cards were 32nd in rushing yards per game and 31st in yards per carry. The running game is improving. However, you are grossly undervaluing the loss of Warner, who carried the offense in 2008 and through most of the wins in 2009. I don’t see how you can say the 2010 team will be as good as last year at this time. After trades and the draft, maybe it can be discussed, but as of right now, no KW is at least 2 more losses.

I also think looking at the schedule is difficult this early. Look at the ’09 Giants or ’09 Tennessee for the first half of the year. Or for that matter look at last year’s schedule, we got to play Detroit, Chicago, and Jacksonville as three of our road games. How did we lose to SF twice last year, lose to Carolina at home, spank Minnesota and beat the Giants in NY? The fact is the Cards are better than they were a few years ago, but still inconsistent even with Warner. Without Warner, the Cards most likely become even more inconsistent. Matt may be an NFL QB and he may not, but right now I have no idea where he is. What I know is the most important player on our team retired.