The Case Against Mount Cody - Part 2
by toolman234 on Apr 14, 2010 11:46 PM MDT
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PrintReason #2 - BIGGER ISN'T ALWAYS BETTER
As I decided to do theses writeups, I thought it important to review some of the other NT's to see what they brought to the table. I decided to use who I thought were the top 9 going into this season and broke them into 2 groups: those over 340 lbs(Ryan Pickett 6'2" 340, Shaun Rogers 6'4" 360, Jamal Williams 6'3" 348, and Kris Jenkins 6'4" 360) and those under 330 (Vince Wilfork 6'2" 325, Casey Hampton 6' 1" 325, Jay Ratliff 6'4" 303, Kelly Gregg 6'0" 315 and Abrauyo Franklin 6'1" 317).
Now before anyone jumps down my throat, I realize that Haloti Ngata is not on this list, and the reason is that he really didn't play alot of NT, at least not last year. Kelly Gregg and Justin Bannan played the Nose and Ngata played LDE. Just look at the film if you don't believe me.
The first thing that jumps out about the list is that evevryone of the +340 players missed significant time last year due to knee injuries(Pickett 3 gms/Rogers 5 gms/Jenkins 10 gms/Williams/15 gms). Now these are all veteran players so you can chalk most of that up to age, but Hampton is a 10 year vet and has missed only 5 games in the last 5, Kelly Gregg is an 11 year vet who has been very durable save the non-playing injury he suffered 2 years ago(bone rubbing against bone), And then Wilfork, Franklin and Ratliff have a combined 21 year of experience and have missed a total of 9 games the past 4 years between them. Again, age is probably the biggest factor, especially in the case of Jamal Williams, but your kidding yourself if you think all that weight does not take a toll. And the reason this relates to Cody is that in his 2 years at Alabama he missed 3 games with...a knee injury.
But let's get back to size vs production. Conventional wisdom is that you need a massive frame in the 3-4 to stop the run, and that is just not the case. Yes, everyone would love to have a player who is the 2nd coming of Ted Washington, but a player can still be a very producitve NT in this league with qualities like a powerful base and strong hands. Gregg, Hampton and Franklin are, by NFL standards, short, squatty type players. But all 3 of them are very powerful players who use their hands very well, and that is the key to their success. Holding the point of attack so that your LB crew can make the plays is what is the key to the success of a productive NT. And their teams numbers (PIT 89.9 YPG + 3.9 YPC) / (BLT 93.3 YPG + 3.4 YPC) (SF 97.0 YPG + 3.6 YPC). bear this out.
And, in the case of Kris Jenkins who was a monster vs the run in 2007(when he weighed 330) and 2008(when he weighed 340) the extra weight certainly cut down on his productivity in 2009(when he weighed 360), and the numbers bear it out:
NYJ 1st 5 games with Jenkins before injury: AVg. 26 carries - 110 yds 4.2 YPC
NYJ last 11 games with Sione Pouha 6''2" 325: Avg 26 carries - 93 yds 3.55 YPC
Again, I think because of his size, let's be generous and say 6'5" 358, people think draft Cody and problem at the NT position is solved. But size and experience will not get you nearly as far as talent, and I will address that in a later post.
One more note about size. Except for 1 player, Wilfork, every other player on this list had to 'grow' into the position as they were not nearly as big when they came out of college as they are now. The point being, just because a guy doesn't look big enough to play NT right now doesn't mean there isn't room to add to a players frame to become big enough. It is much easier to add weight than to lose it. Trust me , I know of what I speak. The following is the players listed above and their physical stats their final year of college compared to today.
Ryan Pickett: 6'2" 290lbs - 6'2" 340lbs
Shaun Rogers 6'4" 320 - 6'4" 360lbs
Casey Hampton 6'1" 310lbs - 6'1" 325lbs
Kris Jenkins 6'4" 292lbs - 6'4" 360lbs
Jay Ratliff 6'4" 278lbs - 6'4" 303lbs
Kelly Gregg 6'0" 285lbs - 6'0" 315lbs
Abrayou Franklin 6'1" 295lbs - 6'1" 317lbs
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Revenge of the Birds' (ROTB) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of ROTB's editors.
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Cody
has lost weight and was down to 349. There is no absolute proof that just because guys are heavy they get knee injuries. Maybe the knee injuries are from being at the NT position. Maybe players get injured from playing football. And adding weight isn’t easier than losing weight. It can go both ways in adding or losing weight.
Yes he has...
But he has NEVER played at 349. His low playing weight with Alabama was between 360-365.
Good point
that he’s never actually played at 349 before. You’d think though that at that size another 20 lbs would do nothing but slow him down, doubt he lost any power.
With all the points you’ve made toolman I think it’s safe to say Price would be the safer pick at the position. However I don’t think the upside is there like Cody, if he can ‘control’ his weight he can definitely make us one of the best run defenses in the league. Plus Andrew makes some good points below as well.
by cardsfanforlife24 on Apr 15, 2010 12:30 PM MDT up reply actions
Gregg and Hampton are both short for NT, which does make their weight appear misleading
Their guts stick out longer then their arms and if they were both 6’5 I’d have to say they’d weigh near what Cody weighs.
I realize that Cody’s phyical appearance is disturbing but can you imagine how many current NFL players would look the same if we saw them with their shirts off?
Overall you make a strong argument. Somehow Dan Williams slipped to #26 in the ROTB mock draft so maybe the same will happen in real life.
What? I didn't break it, I was just testing its durability, and then I placed it in the woods becuase it's made out of wood and I just thought he should be with his family.
Revenge of the Birds
Point of diminishing returns
First of all, nice write up. For the NT position bigger is better but there is still point where any player becomes too big. Weight does contribute to knee injuries, make no mistake about it. The absolute proof is simply the law of physics. Even without trauma excessive weight over time will debilitate your knees.
Cody does have a weight problem. Any team looking at him has to balance that risk against the talent he also possesses. He looks to have huge upside and is an instant fit at NT. I just spoke to a friend of mine who lost 180 lbs over the last year. He didn’t have a John Lott to help him or a multi million dollar career for a carrot. How well Cody interviewed, how determined the team thinks he will be, these are things we have no idea about but will have a major impact on whether or not they’ll want him.
The bottom line is that the Cardinals still need to find the dominating centerpiece of the D-line. I for one don’t care who it is, just so long as they find him.
Even Gabe Watson said himself that more weight puts more pressue on the knees
What? I didn't break it, I was just testing its durability, and then I placed it in the woods becuase it's made out of wood and I just thought he should be with his family.
Revenge of the Birds
I think the decision breaks down to this...
does Cody’s potential upside “outweigh” his weight problem risks. Personally, I’d say yes at this point. I think the fact that he has already gotte down to the 349 mark shows that he is serious about getting in better shape to play football. I also don’t believe that he has been exposed to as good a trainer as Lott and that will simply add to his motivation. You also have to figure that he’s going to have greater people pushing him to be successfull, guys like Dockett, Campbell, and the rest of the defense that understand our need for an absolutely dominating man in the middle. His success will directly impact their success, so there will be a lot of motivating factors for him coming onto the team.
Now, while we can sit here and say his weight is a negative, you can also say his weight is a positive too. Fact is, if he weren’t a large man then he wouldn’t be made so perfectly for the position and we wouldn’t be discussing him right now. His ability to gain weight quickly will most likely also help him to gain muscle mass quickly. With Lott helping him, I truly think he’ll be able to turn a lot of that fat into muscle and become even stronger and more dominating than he already has been.
Think of it this way — If we draft him as our #1 pick and he never lives up to his potential, has weight problems, and disappoints…we are out a first round pick. It won’t be the frst time that a #26 pick didn’t pan out and it won’t be the last. It honestly won’t have been THAT huge of a price. HOWEVER!!!! If we pick him at #26 and he DOES live up to his potential and becomes a dominating mass of mean muscle machine…he will be the anchor of our defense and a dominating run stopper for a decade!! That is a HUGE upsided to what I consider to be a minimal downside.
In the same fashion, anybody we pick at #26 could be a flop. So, picking someone else doesn’t eliminate the risk…but it does quite possibly reduce the potential upside.
You make a great point
Even if he is a “bust,” his big body on the goal line would sure be noticed. It takes a lot of power to move 349 lbs backwards…
They are who we thought they were!
by Jesse Reynolds on Apr 15, 2010 5:47 PM MDT up reply actions
What those players are listed at and what they play at aren't really accurate
Casey Hampton has been sighted at 360+. Remember when he showed up to Steelers camp last year and was so overweight he was placed on the PUP because he couldn’t keep up?
The other thing you're not
mentioning is that Cody is a rare breed of a true 3-4 NT. Only three college teams run the scheme (Bama, Cal, Virginia). The other players you talked about had to add weight to play the position since they didn’t play it in college.
His weight and stamina are a concern with him, his effectiveness is not. The SEC is generally considered the strongest defensive conference in college football, and Cody drew more double teams than any SEC lineman on record, ever. For a team that may only be one NT short of having a dominating 3-4 “D”, his potential still overrides the concerns he carries.
Good points.
I think that the fact that he is a true NT is something people are overlooking. I like this guy and would be happy if this were our first pick. Hughes or Weatherspoon would make me happy as well. By the way, are double teams actually a recorded stat?
"The true test of a person's intellligence is how much they agree with you."
Hughes at the 26 pick is too high IMO
They are who we thought they were!
by Jesse Reynolds on Apr 16, 2010 1:36 PM MDT up reply actions
At this point Hughes may be all there is left at LB
So in that case I wouldn’t be opposed to taking Cody and drafting a LB in the 2nd.
What? I didn't break it, I was just testing its durability, and then I placed it in the woods becuase it's made out of wood and I just thought he should be with his family.
Revenge of the Birds
In the SEC they
are. I’ll try to find where I read that, but the previous high for double teams was Albert Haynesworth when he was at the U of Tenn. He was double-teamed for something like 53-55% of the plays that he was on the field for. Cody’s number was over 60%. The one catch, to Toolman’s argument, is that Cody was on the field for significantly fewer plays than Haynesworth was, but we’ve conceded that Cody’s weight and stamina need improvement; his play, at least in college, didn’t.
I stand corrected, at least for now
Apparently that stat is courtesy of K.C. Joyner, who reviewed game film and came up with the number. Not that I’m saying teams don’t keep it, but that is the source for the numbers I had.
If you are talking about Alualu
Don’t know why most places have him listed at DT. He was exclusively an end at Cal
He was
but it wouldn’t be the first time someone was asked to make a position change. But physically, I agree that he stays a DE if he goes to 3-4 team. He just doesn’t look like he has the frame to be a NT. If he goes to a 4-3 team, I could see a move inside to DT.
I don't know about record breaking double-team blocks
but since they are the only team in the conference to play a 3-4, it would make sense that at least 2 of their lineman would draw a double-team. I’m not buying the stat, but I am also not buying the fact that Cody drew triple-teams as he himself claims…it just didn’t happen.
But our LB position is a much bigger ? than NT even with the addition of Porter, Lenon and Baggs, mostly because of the loss of Dansby.
Of course if Watson is seriously hurt then the picture changes, but the fact that the team announced the switch of Branch to DE from NT would indicate they don’t seem to be concerned.
Or
That Branch just couldn’t cut it as NT and showed promise as a DE. Could be that simple…
They are who we thought they were!
by Jesse Reynolds on Apr 16, 2010 1:37 PM MDT up reply actions
Well Branch played better at DE so I doubt the coaches will risk moving him back to DT and him reverting to his crappy play
That leaves Gabe Watson as the only DT. Watson is coming off injury, a significant injury at that, and hasn’t been the starter in a long time. Defensive tackle is the biggest need even though there are considerable holes at linebacker.
What? I didn't break it, I was just testing its durability, and then I placed it in the woods becuase it's made out of wood and I just thought he should be with his family.
Revenge of the Birds
Agree
plus the fact that we haven’t resigned Robinson indicates that may be our priority this upcoming draft. We’ve at least attempted to shore up some LB positions.
by cardsfanforlife24 on Apr 16, 2010 2:39 PM MDT up reply actions
Georgia's coach
Mark Richt thinks otherwise, he was quoted as saying the following:
“He’s a beast,” said Georgia coach Mark Richt, whose No. 3 Bulldogs host the No. 8 Crimson Tide at Sanford Stadium on Saturday night. “No one’s blocked him. No one man has blocked him, and I haven’t seen many double-teams block him, either. He’s a problem, and probably the reason they are so outstanding against the rush. When you talk about guys who can push a pocket back in front of a quarterback, he can do it.”
To further illustrate the point he was making, it goes on to note:
In Alabama’s 34-10 win over Clemson in the Aug. 30 opener, Cody helped the Crimson Tide hold the Tigers to zero rushing yards. In last week’s 49-14 victory at Arkansas, Cody repeatedly beat double-team blocks, many of which were led by Jonathan Luigs, the 2007 Rimington Award winner as college football’s best center.
“I haven’t seen anybody who’s a match for this guy one-on-one,” Richt said. “Nobody playing on Saturdays, or Sundays probably.”
Still thinking it didn’t happen?
High praise
cody definitely comes with risk. But his upside is amazing. With our lack of depth and proven talent I think it is a no brainer to get him.
Okay let me respond
First to Richt’s comments. When they were made it was exactly 4 GAMES into Cody’s division 1 college career and that included games against Western Kentucky, Tulane and the above mentioned and eventually (5-7) Razorbacks. And Richt not only thinks he is the best in college but that he would be unstoppable at the pro level too, huh? Don’t you think there might be a little gamesmanship going on there? Yes Alabama shut down a good running game vs Clemson in that first game and I’m sure Cody had a great game, I’m not looking for anymore game tape, I am just going to concede the point. So what! It was his first game ever in division one and maybe they caught Clemson by surprise. But, really, what did you expect Richt to say? This was a HUGE game with #3 GA hosting #8 ALA. Didi you expect him to say “This fat slob sucks and we are going to run it right down his throat.” Yeah! Let’s put that up on the bulletin board, that’ll work! I’ll respond to the rest later.
?
If Cody wasn’t worth a damn, as you keep arguing, why say anything about him at all? When an opposing coach sings your praises like that it’s a concession that you play your position that well.
What gamemanship could come from that? You’re thinking he said it so Cody would think Georgia wasn’t concerned about him? Serious reach on your response. I can’t recall any coach, at any time, specifically mentioning a NT on the opposing team.
Go to the game recap at ESPN and you will understand why
Georgia offensive line had 2 freshmen and 2 sophs starting. You ask why Richt would say these things? You say these things to get YOUR OWN PLAYERS FIRED UP. They read that somebody is all-world and they don’t stand a chance, you feel disrespected and try to prove the naysayers wrong. Do you remember our SB run? Players like 90 saying ‘we read/heard we couldn’t do this or that blah, blah, blah’ after wins. It became personal.
But Richt knew he was in trouble. He had the higher ranked team, he was playing at home, they were a solid(-7) favorite, yet he picks that game to pull out the black shirts. He was trying anything he could to get the emotional edge.
But, again, read his postgame comments. He doesn’t praise Cody, he bemoans the fact that his OL is so young.
We'll have to let this one
go, because I don’t see the connection between his praise about Cody and getting his own players fired up. He has a direct connection to them, he wouldn’t need to motivate them in the press. It wasn’t Whisenhunt who was saying the Cardinals didn’t belong in the playoffs.
I think you're
forgetting athletic ability, match-ups, game plans, etc. All football, to a degree, is about motivation.
Holding Clemson to 0 yards rushing
They did hold Clemson down to 28 yards rushing(-28 due to sacks), but again you gotta look at the numbers.
C.J. Spiiler 2 carries 7 yards(+8, -1)
J.Davis 6 carries 13 yards
They dropped back to pass 37X
What’s wrong with this picture?
Actually it was more likely...
because they fell behind big early. Kinda takes the running game out of your playbook.
That will do it as well
But in this case, it would have had to be huge hole because giving Spiller only two carries says a lot. Keep in mind, in college, that the clock stops on every first down so it’s not as prevalent to abandon the running game in college as it is in the NFL.
If we go LB with our first round pick
who are the NT that will be on the board for our 2nd and 3rd round picks who are worthy of getting drafted that high? I’ll be honest after Brian Price I haven’t heard of too many DT’s that have potential. Would be appreciated if someone could list some names so I could look into them.
by cardsfanforlife24 on Apr 16, 2010 4:38 PM MDT reply actions
I'll try cram a bunch of potential draft picks over the weekend and next week.
What? I didn't break it, I was just testing its durability, and then I placed it in the woods becuase it's made out of wood and I just thought he should be with his family.
Revenge of the Birds
Until
Andrew reviews them more in depth, the names you’ll hear that are potential candidates to move to NT are: Cam Thomas, Torell Troup, and possibly Linval Joseph if we’re talking rounds 2-3. I don’t think Price (or Odrick) project well to playing NT, so those are the three names to keep an eye on if we address the position at #58.
Part of the reason I think we should be looking at Cody at #26 is again, to repeat, he’s the only true 3-4 NT in the draft. Everyone else will be asked to switch to NT if they’re drafted by a 3-4 team. A lot of people are high on Thomas, I don’t agree. If we fear getting another Branch the two have some notable similarities. I think Troup is a much better choice.
I'd say that
number is closer to the truth than the Pats would ever concede to.
Ted Washington was probably the best 3-4 NT to date, and he played at what? Minimally had to be 360.
yeah he was a very large man to say the least
by cardsfanforlife24 on Apr 17, 2010 6:30 PM MDT up reply actions
Ted Washington played at 365
No Way Wilfork was bigger than Ted Washington
Those numbers can never be considered entirely accurate though
I know we don’t have anything else to go off of but come on even our own website says Adams is 5’8", maybe if he’s standing on some yellow pages. I’m sure in the case with most really large men they underestimate how much they weigh.
by cardsfanforlife24 on Apr 19, 2010 3:57 PM MDT reply actions
Okay, let's say the numbers are off for guys like Wilfork, Washington and Hampton...
Wouldn’t it stand to reason then that the numbers are off for players like S.Rogers, J.Williams and K.Jenkins? So if they are listed at 360 what are they really, 390? C’mon guys. Wilfork is 6’2’ he has been listed as that since college. Same with Hampton(6’1") and Gregg(6’0"). All the guys I listed, their height as seniors in college matched up to what they are now in the pros. There is no great conspiracy theory. One of the reasons there is a difference in weight because Rogers, Washington, Jenkins and now Cody are much taller players, maybe too tall for the position. Ratliff being the one true exception because Dallas plays one gap and if we improve our LB’s maybe we wil move to one gap, which would fit Dockett and Campbell better anyway because neither one of them are true run stoppers as much as they are penetrators. Not saying we will but wouldn’t it make sense?
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