I constantly hear on various boards how Alex Smith is improving and is only getting better as he acclimatizes to their latest stab at an offensive brain trust. So, I figured all this improvement should be reflected in his performance as last year progressed. He started the last 11 games so I broke this into first 6, last 5. Just for laughs, I did the same for Matt Leinart's rookie  year (2006), 12 games, first 6, last 6.  I figured the abortive injury season (2007) was not worth including (5 games and out). We really don't have a lot to work with except his rookie season and a few odd games last year. Most numbers shown are averages, except where labeled as Median, that being the exact middle of the low to high list for each value, sometimes more informative than an average.  Charts after the break...

Notice that the second half of his season, his numbers are worse than the first half. In the second half,  his rating, completions, Yards Per Catch and TDs are all BELOW his median numbers (exact middle number for each value).

This is extremely interesting because they played the softest part of their schedule in those last 5 games.

With Smith in charge, they beat ONE team with a 2009 winning record, us. In the second 5, he had us, and the Eagles (lost to the Eagles, beat us). He also had Seattle (5-11), lost to them and beat Detroit and Saint Louis, yahoo. The fact that he actually seemed to regress, bodes well for us. And that opinion is just as valid as all these loons saying he will break out this year, based on absolutely no evidence whatsoever.

Let's look at Leinart's rookie year, 12 games.

A solid improvement in the second half. This is a QB that actually is improving (and let's face it, that 2006 Team wasn't half the team he has now). In almost every category, he improved on his Median values in that second half. Definitely a sign of improvement.That second half rating, across all of 2009 would have put him at 13, .2 behind Donovan McNabb. Alex Smiths 2cd half rating would have put him at 21, just ahead of Jay Cutler.

But what does Matt  Leinart's rookie year have to do with now ? Well it is the most consecutive games he played at any time. His 5 games in 2007 were pretty much a disaster (plus Kurt Warner had yet to teach Whiz that maybe he had a passing team on his hands). Then, the great wait.

There were some games we can extrapolate from in 2009. Let's consider every game where he had at least 10 attempts.

@ Saint Louis Rams,  10 of 14, QB rating 83.6, we won. Not bad for someone stepping in cold, with I would bet, no first team practice the week before.

@ Tennessee Titans,  21 of 31, QB rating 88.1, we lost (prevent does nothing but prevent YOU from winning). No first team practice, improved over the previous week, running a pretty vanilla version of the offense designed for Warner.

Green Bay Packers,   a totally ugly mess, I don't think Whiz was even trying to stay close, let alone win. We showed them nothing and did nothing, the whole team. I'm not even going to count this, watching it was enough of a joke (although, strategically, it was probably a masterpiece).

@ New Orleans Saints, 7 of 10, QB rating 85.8. Once again, I doubt he had much of any practice the week before, he still looked solid, but the game was already over.

So, with not much playing time in 2009, he is STILL averaging better than Alex Smith, who only got worse, statistically, as the year went on.

Which is why I think Leinart lights it up this season. People that say he played soft in TEN weren't watching the game I watched. A few plays you could see him wait for the receiver, with  a D-lineman bearing down, clearly in view, and just like Warner, he waited for the last possible second and delivered the completion (and just like Warner, got demolished a fraction of a second later). Anyone that thinks this guy has not learned from watching Warner (although, with that example I hope it doesn't get him killed), obviously just can't accept that maybe the guy is good and maybe, even better than good (and this from someone who NEVER liked Leinart until that TEN game, now I'm a believer). 

Meanwhile, I have not seen ANY evidence anywhere suggesting Smith is, or can be, anything better than mediocre. 

Go CARDS !