Lets take a look at some stats: Leinart in 06 and Anderson in 07 when they go deep.
by JoeCB1991 on Aug 29, 2010 3:22 PM MDT
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PrintI was looking around on the Azcardinals.com message boards, and I found this post.
"Anderson vs Leinart deep (Leinart's rookie season vs DA last year and in his best season). Scroll down to by pass play stats:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/player...?playerId=8627
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/player...627&sYear=2007
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/player...596&sYear=2006
It's Anderson that comes up short in the comparison, not Leinart. Even in DA's best 2007 season, Leinart was still better throwing the deep ball in his rookie season."
So, lets take a look at these stats.
The links in the post I quoted show their stats in several different situations, and on passes where the throws go for over 10 yards, 20 yards, 30 yards, or 40 yards before they are caught. That is what we are going to look at today.
Matt Leinart in 2006:
| BY PASS PLAY | CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | SACK | RAT | ||||||
| Pass Thrown: Behind line | 32 | 49 | 178 | 65.3 | 3.63 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 78.4 | ||||||
| Pass Thrown: 1-10 yds. | 128 | 210 | 1131 | 61.0 | 5.39 | 29 | 8 | 4 | 0.0 | 80.1 | ||||||
| Pass Thrown: 11-20 yds. | 41 | 80 | 740 | 51.3 | 9.25 | 58 | 0 | 6 | 0.0 | 52.1 | ||||||
| Pass Thrown: 21-30 yds. | 5 | 20 | 139 | 25.0 | 6.95 | 39 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 35.2 | ||||||
| Pass Thrown: 31-40 yds. | 6 | 13 | 254 | 46.2 | 19.54 | 57 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 60.6 | ||||||
| Pass Thrown: 41+ yds. | 2 | 5 | 105 | 40.0 | 21.00 | 56 | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 127.1 |
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Now, Derek Anderson in 2007:
| BY PASS PLAY | CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | SACK | RAT | |||||
| Pass Thrown: Behind line | 32 | 49 | 254 | 65.3 | 5.18 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 84.9 | |||||
| Pass Thrown: 1-10 yds. | 173 | 279 | 1573 | 62.0 | 5.64 | 50 | 8 | 5 | 0.0 | 79.3 | |||||
| Pass Thrown: 11-20 yds. | 78 | 157 | 1439 | 49.7 | 9.17 | 49 | 12 | 12 | 0.0 | 75.3 | |||||
| Pass Thrown: 21-30 yds. | 11 | 27 | 305 | 40.7 | 11.30 | 45 | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 107.3 | |||||
| Pass Thrown: 31-40 yds. | 4 | 12 | 216 | 33.3 | 18.00 | 78 | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 86.8 | |||||
| Pass Thrown: 41+ yds. | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 39.6 |
And if you want to see the other link, Anderson in 2009:
| BY PASS PLAY | CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | SACK | RAT | |||||
| Pass Thrown: Behind line | 14 | 27 | 51 | 51.9 | 1.89 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 57.8 | |||||
| Pass Thrown: 1-10 yds. | 47 | 90 | 412 | 52.2 | 4.58 | 28 | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 62.8 | |||||
| Pass Thrown: 11-20 yds. | 14 | 44 | 251 | 31.8 | 5.71 | 24 | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 24.0 | |||||
| Pass Thrown: 21-30 yds. | 5 | 13 | 131 | 38.5 | 10.08 | 30 | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 62.2 | |||||
| Pass Thrown: 31-40 yds. | 1 | 6 | 43 | 16.7 | 7.17 | 43 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 17.4 | |||||
| Pass Thrown: 41+ yds. | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 39.6 |
Now here is just something else to throw in there, Kurt Warner in the 2008 and 2009 seasons.
| BY PASS PLAY | CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | SACK | RAT | |||||
| Pass Thrown: Behind line | 83 | 107 | 503 | 77.6 | 4.70 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 97.9 | |||||
| Pass Thrown: 1-10 yds. | 232 | 333 | 2068 | 69.7 | 6.21 | 50 | 16 | 5 | 0.0 | 95.8 | |||||
| Pass Thrown: 11-20 yds. | 66 | 117 | 1201 | 56.4 | 10.27 | 75 | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 85.5 | |||||
| Pass Thrown: 21-30 yds. | 12 | 24 | 434 | 50.0 | 18.08 | 79 | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 118.1 | |||||
| Pass Thrown: 31-40 yds. | 3 | 10 | 123 | 30.0 | 12.30 | 44 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 38.8 | |||||
| Pass Thrown: 41+ yds. | 5 | 7 | 254 | 71.4 | 36.29 | 62 | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 153.3 |
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| BY PASS PLAY | CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | SACK | RAT | |||||
| Pass Thrown: Behind line | 63 | 89 | 437 | 70.8 | 4.91 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 84.3 | |||||
| Pass Thrown: 1-10 yds. | 191 | 274 | 1625 | 69.7 | 5.93 | 25 | 10 | 3 | 0.0 | 92.5 | |||||
| Pass Thrown: 11-20 yds. | 73 | 112 | 1359 | 65.2 | 12.13 | 44 | 11 | 5 | 0.0 | 121.1 | |||||
| Pass Thrown: 21-30 yds. | 6 | 22 | 156 | 27.3 | 7.09 | 29 | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 32.2 | |||||
| Pass Thrown: 31-40 yds. | 4 | 8 | 147 | 50.0 | 18.38 | 45 | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 95.8 | |||||
| Pass Thrown: 41+ yds. | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Looking at these numbers, even though everyone says Leinart has a noodle arm, he did pretty well throwing deep in his rookie year, and he was more accurate when he threw deep than Anderson was. The only difference is that Matt had a worse TD/Pick ratio in a couple of areas [most of his Touchdowns were from passes that were thrown between 1 to 10 yards], and Anderson threw more TDs when he was going deep. But, Leinart only had 11 TDs in 06 compared to 29 for Anderson, and Leinart played less games and had about 200 less passing attempts.
Now of course, this doesn't show everything. But it is interesting to look at. And you can see that the two of them were about equal in attempts over 30 yards in the years where they played the most.
Thoughts?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Revenge of the Birds' (ROTB) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of ROTB's editors.
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A lot of people on here and that message board.
Lifelong Arizona Cardinals/Chicago Bears fan [I have always lived in Arizona, dad is from Chicago].
I can't stand fair-weather/bandwagon fans, stick with your team, throughout the good and the bad. And don't switch to whichever team wins the Super Bowl each year.
It's not as much can't as won't
Would like to see him have the confidence to air it out more often, but unfortunately he doesn’t and it shrinks the field and makes it very difficult to get the running game going.
One thing I have noticed, from the videos posted, is that he seemed to throw deep more in his rookie year. I didn’t connect the dots on that at the time, but has anyone seen a connection between his lack of going down the field between then and after his collarbone injury?
The injury might be part of it.
Lifelong Arizona Cardinals/Chicago Bears fan [I have always lived in Arizona, dad is from Chicago].
I can't stand fair-weather/bandwagon fans, stick with your team, throughout the good and the bad. And don't switch to whichever team wins the Super Bowl each year.
The problem with Matt is that he needs to pick up where he left off from 06
And that’s the deep passes. He did good yesterday, but his longest pass was 18 yards. He absolutely needs to show that he is able to make accurate deep throws and spread the field in game 4. I think that’s what Whiz and the coaching staff wants to see.
by CanadianCard on Aug 29, 2010 3:51 PM MDT reply actions 1 recs
Another video from the message board
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fyF0CgzODE
Couple of deep passes from Leinart in here, mostly from the Preseason though. I think it was the 07 season.
Lifelong Arizona Cardinals/Chicago Bears fan [I have always lived in Arizona, dad is from Chicago].
I can't stand fair-weather/bandwagon fans, stick with your team, throughout the good and the bad. And don't switch to whichever team wins the Super Bowl each year.
2007 and 2008
I wish it had some highlights from the Chargers game.
Had a few nice bombs in that one.
Lifelong Arizona Cardinals/Chicago Bears fan [I have always lived in Arizona, dad is from Chicago].
I can't stand fair-weather/bandwagon fans, stick with your team, throughout the good and the bad. And don't switch to whichever team wins the Super Bowl each year.
This is wicked old school
And it loves up on Matty A LOT but it has a few throws that he bombs.
"Some people think football is a matter of life and death. I assure you, it's much more serious than that." - Bill Shankly
Fitz new Braylon Edwards for DA?
"Some people think football is a matter of life and death. I assure you, it's much more serious than that." - Bill Shankly
watch his head
EVERY single play on there, he is watching his primary target right from the snap to the throw, laser vision. Isn’t Leinart getting pilloried for ‘staring down the receiver’ ? I guess it’s ok if you do it with ‘Swagger’ and other unidentified ‘intangibles’.
I really wish I hadn’t taped over the game so I could go back and check for this particular tendency.
Nah, Matt is being hammered because Cris Carter decided to manipulate Fitz's words to fit his own agenda.
Lifelong Arizona Cardinals/Chicago Bears fan [I have always lived in Arizona, dad is from Chicago].
I can't stand fair-weather/bandwagon fans, stick with your team, throughout the good and the bad. And don't switch to whichever team wins the Super Bowl each year.
Don't bother
you’ll never be able to see it on TV. What the LB’s/DB’s are looking at is the QB’s eyes, only a field-level view will show you that. Some obvious give-aways of that, which could be seen on TV, are DB’s constantly jumping routes and ILB interceptions underneath. Sometimes you can trace a big hit to it, but more often than not that can be blamed on an inaccurate throw.
Kurt Warner 08 vs 09 and the deep ball
This is the most interesting stat I took away from this. In 08 Warner was 20 for 41 on passes over 20 yards, a 49% completion rate. In 09 he was 10 for 36, a 28% completion rate. There has been a misconception that Warner went deep much less in 09 but it was actually only less by 5 passes. His completion rate was way down however. The injury to his shoulder probably accounted for much of that. If he felt he couldn’t throw the long ball accurately anymore it may have been a factor in his choice to retire.
Anderson vs Leinart
Anderson’s stats from 07 are better almost across the board than Leinart’s 06 stats. In the 1-10 yard range there is less than a point difference in rating. In the 41+ range the sample is so small that one pass skews the entire stat line.
Flip over to Anderson’s 09 stats and they are horrible. Leinart hasn’t had a second season’s worth of stats to compare so which year do you go by with Anderson? Do you average them? This is why Whisenhunt has made the point of saying you don’t make the decision based upon stats alone.
I, for one, have never said Leinart has a noodle arm. I don’t doubt in his ability to throw the ball, only in his willingness. I agree with the idea that he needs to air it out some in game 4. He’s shown he can be efficient and not turn the ball over. He needs to show the complete package. That means putting it up deep. There is a sweet spot somewhere between “game manager” and “gun slinger” that Leinart needs to find.
by hadrarius on Aug 29, 2010 6:18 PM MDT reply actions 3 recs
I did say that stats don't say everything
Just interesting to look at.
One thing that was noticeable is that Leinart had more pass attempts over 30 yards in 12 games than Anderson did in 16.
Lifelong Arizona Cardinals/Chicago Bears fan [I have always lived in Arizona, dad is from Chicago].
I can't stand fair-weather/bandwagon fans, stick with your team, throughout the good and the bad. And don't switch to whichever team wins the Super Bowl each year.
by JoeCB1991 on Aug 29, 2010 6:58 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thanks
Bringing stats to the table to look at the argument from a different perspective is fascinating.
But where’d the rookie Matt go?
Also, I feel he has a legitimate complaint with preseason play time. It’s been the DA preseason.
Additionally, DA’s favorite target, Williams, is the one he’s had the most time with, since he’s been throwing him the ball more than a lot of other WRs (ML worked with Fitz and Breaston more before injuries), so you have to factor in time with each other.
The broken collar bone from 2007 could be part of it.
Lifelong Arizona Cardinals/Chicago Bears fan [I have always lived in Arizona, dad is from Chicago].
I can't stand fair-weather/bandwagon fans, stick with your team, throughout the good and the bad. And don't switch to whichever team wins the Super Bowl each year.
Good points
"Some people think football is a matter of life and death. I assure you, it's much more serious than that." - Bill Shankly
by Jesse Reynolds on Aug 29, 2010 11:18 PM MDT up reply actions
So Glad you did this
I started looking at deep completions(over 50 yards) last night. I could find only 4 completions for DA in 1109 attempts and 4 for ML in 595 att., almost 1/2 less. Of course, you would have to look at YAC, but I just found it curious that it takes us, the fans, to find this info and point it out, while the lazy media just runs with the juiciest headline.
As I write this, I am watching NFL tonight where head moron, M.Lombardi, contends that the players in the lockerroom do not have ML’s back and want DA to be the starter. Hmmmmm….interesting Mike. But you would think that would show up on the field. Not saying players would tank it, but maybe just do what is necessary, not go the extra yard. Let’s go back in time and see what the highlights show……………………
Middle of the 3rd Q, ML is on his third, and most probably last drive(if the previous 2 gms are any indication). DA has already led the Cards to a TD and there isn’t one person on that offense who doesn’t know that if ML does not get AZ in the end zone he comes out a loser in the head-to-head matchup with DA, at least in the eyes of the media. It is 3rd and goal from the 13. One shot to get it in. Breaston and Komar run patterns underneath, Dray and Williams head to the end zone. Breaston catches at the 10 and as defenders close in, he launches himself from the 3 yard line(the only way possible for him to get in) for the TD.
My question….Why? It’s preseason. He is a starter, set in stone. Who cares if you score, why take a chance of getting hurt? What do you accomplish? I’ll tell you what you accomplish…….By your play, you are telling your QB “I got your back”. Your telling your QB “I trust in you and I’m going to give you everything I got everytime I step on the field”. I know some will say it was merely instincts taking over, but there is also an instinct called self-preservation. He had 5 defenders in eyeshot closing in on him. Would anyone have even raised an eyebrow if he didn’t get airborne? I think not.
Now to me, THAT is what the leader of a football team gets the players around him to do. I don’t know who these people Lombardi is talking to are, but I will bet dollars to doughnuts it isn’t a Cardinal player, and I suspect it probably isn’t even anyone in the organization. Probably just someone who ‘claims’ they have the pulse of the organization. But for Lombardi to make that claim, and not back it up with one piece of evidence shows me he is in the wrong job. Maybe a correspondent for ET or TMZ would fit the bill.
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