Why all the Early round MISSES and Late round HITS??
Can anyone explain why the Cardinals front office & scouts have had such success in the later rounds of recent drafts (and with several UDFA's), while they've had so many apparent misses in the earlier rounds of the draft??
By my count, the Cardinals still have 11 out of 15 players taken in the 4th round or later in the last 4 drafts still on the roster, and given the longer odds against these players making the team, this is pretty impressive.
At the same time, 10 out of 12 players from the first 3 rounds are still on the roster, which may seem OK at first, but these blue chippers need to make major contributions for the franchise to progress, and many have fallen short.
Hopefully Dan Williams and Daryl Washington can even the score a little bit, but with the recent release of 2nd round pick Cody Brown, the first 3 rounds of the '07, '08 and '09 drafts have produced such underwhelming performers as Buster Davis, Rashad Johnson, Alan Branch, and Levi Brown.
Compare those names to the following starters and solid contributors that were taken in the 4th round or later in the same drafts: Steve Breaston, Ben Patrick, Tim Hightower, Brandon Keith, Greg Toler, and LSH.
Not to mention the UDFA's, where this year's comparison between the performance of undrafted Stephen Williams and 3rd rd pick Andre Roberts is difficult to comprehend.
Is evaluating college talent that much of a hit or miss proposition?
Have the Cards played it safe in the early rounds, then taken some risks later on that have panned out?
Are they drafting by need instead of best player available or vice versa?
Or are the Cardinals "small school" scouts doing a better job finding these diamonds in the rough than the scouts following the big name players from big programs??
Applying my own HIT or MISS judgment on the last 4 drafts, and trying to balance the expectations of the high draft picks who are expected to make an immediate impact; vs. the later picks where the team is hoping they simply make the 53 man roster, I have the Cardinals being successful on just 6 out of 12 in the first 3 rounds, and 9 out of 13 in the 4th round or later.
The last 4 drafts are shown below:
2010
Rnd Name College Note
1 Dan Williams HIT
2 Daryl Washington HIT
3 Andre Roberts MISS???
4 O'Brien Schofield ????
5 John Skelton HIT???
6 Jorrick Calvin MISS
7 Jim Dray HIT??
2009
Rnd Name College Note
1 Chris Wells Ohio State HIT
2 Cody Brown Connecticut MISS
3 Rashad Johnson Alabama MISS
4 Greg Toler St Pauls HIT
5 Herman Johnson LSU MISS
6 Will Davis Illinois ????
7 LaRod Stephens-Howling Pittsburgh HIT
7 Trevor Canfield Cincinnati MISS
2008
Rnd Name College Note
1 Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie Tennessee State HIT
2 Calais Campbell Miami (Fla.) HIT
3 Early Doucet Louisiana State HIT
4 Kenny Iwebema Iowa HIT
5 Tim Hightower Richmond HIT
6 Chris Harrington Texas A&M MISS
7 Brandon Keith Northern Iowa HIT
2007
Rnd Name College Note
1 Levi Brown Penn State MISS??
2 Alan Branch Michigan MISS??
3 Buster Davis Florida State MISS
5 Steve Breaston Michigan HIT
7 Ben Patrick Delaware HIT
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Revenge of the Birds' (ROTB) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of ROTB's editors.
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I would agree that the Cards have been good at finding talent late, but not that they have missed early all that often. You would need to compare the cards success in the first 3 rounds vs other teams if you wanted those numbers to really mean anything. There are plenty of busts in the first 3 rounds of every draft.
I would also object to your labeling of MANY of the players; Levi Brown has started 43 games at tackle and is our starting LT and he’s a “miss”? Even relative to his draft position I’d disagree. Kieth is a “hit” before he starts a single game? Alan Branch was a solid rotational player last year and will be again this year, and Rashad Johnson hasn’t stood out but has only had 1 year in the league. Calling anyone from this years draft class a hit or miss is way premature. Calvin obviously won’t be doing anything for us, but we traded him for a guy from the same draft picked in the same range, so that’s who you’d have to look at.
You jump to hit/miss conclusions way too early in some of these guys careers. The wealth of talent from late in the draft supports your idea that the cards are good at finding guys late, but I don’t see any support (at least in this post) for your argument that they are worse at drafting guys early. 2009 2nd rounder Cody Brown and 2007 3rd rounder Buster Davis are the only bonafide busts out of 12 picks, and by the end of the season at least 5 of those guys are likely to be starters (if the top 2 choices this year are starting), and maybe 6 if Beanie takes the starting RB gig.
by manphibian on Sep 4, 2010 4:07 PM MDT reply actions 2 recs
FIrst of all
Later picks are a lot cheaper. Second Rashad did stand out this off season as being more aggressive and that’s a start. It’s his second year and he should have a good one.
Remember no matter where you go in life...there you are!
by McCards010 on Sep 4, 2010 4:13 PM MDT reply actions
plus he is behind guys like Adub and rolle and now rhodes which are savy vets
The Devil Birds just got cha
by DaCards on Sep 4, 2010 8:59 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
RJ is still with the team, compared to Brown
If they have the guts to cut their 2nd round pick from last year, they certainly would have had the guts to dump their 3rd.
What areyou saying is a miss?
There is so many other factors going into NFL draft picks that you aren’t considering suchas position, where they played in college, coaching staff, competition at their position etc. You have to remember star in college does not translate to NFL success. Systems can make the player too. TCU defensive players come from an awesome system so when we selected Washington i was excited but cautious. A system can make a player an then move him into another system and he just doesn’t work! All food for thought! I think wiz and graves draft very well and find a lot of gems in the rough!
by Punisher3190 on Sep 4, 2010 5:21 PM MDT via mobile reply actions
2008
Was a damn good draft. The other guys kind of speak for themselves but I think Iwebema might have a lot more to show us soon.
I know isn't it retarded! Levi is coming along!
by Punisher3190 on Sep 4, 2010 6:48 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
I've never considered a guy who has started from day one to be a bust
especially when he was a Pro Bowl alternate last year.
by Long Beach on Sep 4, 2010 6:54 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
johnson, roberts, branch, brown, none are misses
Brown a 4 year starter. Branch is been very active last 2 years Roberts a rookie who got hurt. Johnson was never expected to take rolles job right of the back and now rhodes is there so being a 3rd pick and being a serviceable back up and solid contributor on special teams is not bad at all
The Devil Birds just got cha
by DaCards on Sep 4, 2010 10:08 PM MDT via mobile reply actions
+1
Also Keith is a hit? Let’s let time tell us on that one, he was like johnson and skelton late round project players….they were/all very raw when they came to the cardinals…too early to tell on any of them
I haven’t analyzed every teams roster, but I don’t think it is unique to the Cardinals. High draft picks come in and get a huge sum of money up front. Where’s the motivation? The high paid players aren’t playing for the love of the game, they are not playing for their next contracrt. They are playing to not get hurt. The lower drafted and non players have to prove themselves to stick around. The whole system is out of whack if high profile rookies got played less up front, they would be far more inspired to become better football players. Every team in the league has had can’t miss players that were busts and unknowns that have become stars. The Cardinals especially under Whiz are going to play the players who have proven themselves and have a strong desire to succeed. A team’s measure of success is in the wins and losses column, something the Cards have done well with the the last few years. Draft day descions have an impact on the season but it is not the measuring stick. The draft is a means to acquire bodies, and is an inexact science. ESPN makes every drafted player out to be the second coming, and exactly what the team needs. It is Hollywood it is entertainment. Jobs are won and lost in the weight room, on the practice field some of it is fitting the jigsaw pieces together in the confines of the salary cap or teams budget. Things might have been different with Cody Brown if he didn’t get injured. Who knew Herman Johnson would come into his second camp out of shape. Leinart came in this season with a sense of entitlement. Without proving his worth, no one is entitled to play. If the Cardinals return to the playoffs, I will judge this offseason a success. If we win 5 games, then maybe things were done wrong and reevaluate the process for the future. I would rather have 53 guys who fought to be where they are than 10 princesses who had it handed to them.
13- Warner, 23- Sandberg, 40- Tillman, 11- Walter
by TBru on Sep 5, 2010 1:23 PM MDT reply actions 2 recs
+11
Couldn’t agree more. That’s why guys like LSH, Reggie Walker, and now Stephen Williams are some of my favourite Cardinals.
Regarding Levi Brown, I agree that he is far from being a bust, I just think you are hoping for more than a serviceable starter with the 5th overall pick.
On the other hand, when you spend a 7th round pick on a guy like Brandon Keith, and he later develops into a serviceable starter (jury is still out…), that’s a huge win.
by CanadianCardsFan on Sep 5, 2010 2:19 PM MDT up reply actions
Think it has something to do with the nature of the early rounds
You’re more willing to reach for someone you’re not as certain about with the concern that another team will scoop him up (Branch, Washington). Likewise, you become enamored with so-and-so and nab him when you feel other teams have decided to take a pass, but sometimes there is a good reason they fell all the way to you (Leinart, Wells, Williams, RJ). Teams also fall in love with athletes and will disregard potential flaws and negatives with their college production with the intent to develop them (Buster Davis). As you can see from these examples, even with those considerations, there’s just no surefire way to determine who will be successful and who will not. As for the late rounds, it’s all about getting the guys you want at the price you want, and if you whiff, it’s not a big deal.
Another factor that skews our picks is that we’re fielding the fad defense of the moment. Effective 3-4 players are high in demand and low in supply. Most OLB’s are projects, players that need to be converted to a new position to be effective, a very inconsistent process. On top of that, 1-3 teams a season decide to convert their traditionally 4-3 base over to the D based on one or two players on their roster, which puts an even bigger strain on the supply.
As with everyone else, I am inclined to disagree with some of your assessments, but keep in mind that successful teams are continually buoyed by successful draft classes. Look at the good teams, and then examine their draft classes from the last few years. Then consider the bad teams. How many players did the Lions draft within the last 5 years that are still with the team? How many of those guys are still even in the league? I’ll wager that there aren’t very many, but even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while (Calvin Johnson).

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