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Why all the Early round MISSES and Late round HITS??

Can anyone explain why the Cardinals front office & scouts have had such success in the later rounds of recent drafts (and with several UDFA's), while they've had so many apparent misses in the earlier rounds of the draft??

By my count, the Cardinals still have 11 out of 15 players taken in the 4th round or later in the last 4 drafts still on the roster, and given the longer odds against these players making the team, this is pretty impressive.

At the same time, 10 out of 12 players from the first 3 rounds are still on the roster, which may seem OK at first, but these blue chippers need to make major contributions for the franchise to progress, and many have fallen short.

Hopefully Dan Williams and Daryl Washington can even the score a little bit, but with the recent release of 2nd round pick Cody Brown, the first 3 rounds of the '07, '08 and '09 drafts have produced such underwhelming performers as Buster Davis, Rashad Johnson, Alan Branch, and Levi Brown.

Compare those names to the following starters and solid contributors that were taken in the 4th round or later in the same drafts: Steve Breaston, Ben Patrick, Tim Hightower, Brandon Keith, Greg Toler, and LSH.

Not to mention the UDFA's, where this year's comparison between the performance of undrafted Stephen Williams and 3rd rd pick Andre Roberts is difficult to comprehend.

Is evaluating college talent that much of a hit or miss proposition?

Have the Cards played it safe in the early rounds, then taken some risks later on that have panned out?

Are they drafting by need instead of best player available or vice versa?

Or are the Cardinals "small school" scouts doing a better job finding these diamonds in the rough than the scouts following the big name players from big programs??

Applying my own HIT or MISS judgment on the last 4 drafts, and trying to balance the expectations of the high draft picks who are expected to make an immediate impact; vs. the later picks where the team is hoping they simply make the 53 man roster, I have the Cardinals being successful on just 6 out of 12 in the first 3 rounds, and 9 out of 13 in the 4th round or later.

The last 4 drafts are shown below:

2010
Rnd Name College Note
1 Dan Williams  HIT
2 Daryl Washington  HIT
3 Andre Roberts  MISS???
4 O'Brien Schofield  ????
5 John Skelton  HIT???
6 Jorrick Calvin  MISS
7 Jim Dray  HIT??
 
2009
Rnd Name College Note
1 Chris Wells Ohio State   HIT
2 Cody Brown Connecticut   MISS
3 Rashad Johnson Alabama   MISS
4 Greg Toler St Pauls   HIT
5 Herman Johnson LSU    MISS
6 Will Davis Illinois   ????
7 LaRod Stephens-Howling Pittsburgh   HIT 
7 Trevor Canfield Cincinnati    MISS
 
2008
Rnd Name College Note
1 Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie Tennessee State  HIT
2 Calais Campbell Miami (Fla.)   HIT
3 Early Doucet Louisiana State  HIT
4 Kenny Iwebema Iowa  HIT
5 Tim Hightower Richmond    HIT
6 Chris Harrington Texas A&M   MISS
7 Brandon Keith Northern Iowa  HIT
 
2007
Rnd Name College Note
1 Levi Brown Penn State   MISS??
2 Alan Branch Michigan   MISS??
3 Buster Davis Florida State   MISS
5 Steve Breaston Michigan   HIT
7 Ben Patrick Delaware   HIT



This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Revenge of the Birds' (ROTB) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of ROTB's editors.

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FIrst of all

Later picks are a lot cheaper. Second Rashad did stand out this off season as being more aggressive and that’s a start. It’s his second year and he should have a good one.

Remember no matter where you go in life...there you are!

by McCards010 on Sep 4, 2010 4:13 PM MDT reply actions  

RJ is still with the team, compared to Brown

If they have the guts to cut their 2nd round pick from last year, they certainly would have had the guts to dump their 3rd.

by tw3kr on Sep 8, 2010 3:52 AM MDT up reply actions  

What areyou saying is a miss?

There is so many other factors going into NFL draft picks that you aren’t considering suchas position, where they played in college, coaching staff, competition at their position etc. You have to remember star in college does not translate to NFL success. Systems can make the player too. TCU defensive players come from an awesome system so when we selected Washington i was excited but cautious. A system can make a player an then move him into another system and he just doesn’t work! All food for thought! I think wiz and graves draft very well and find a lot of gems in the rough!

by Punisher3190 on Sep 4, 2010 5:21 PM MDT via mobile reply actions  

2008

Was a damn good draft. The other guys kind of speak for themselves but I think Iwebema might have a lot more to show us soon.

by Fitz Jizzle on Sep 4, 2010 5:42 PM MDT reply actions  

johnson, roberts, branch, brown, none are misses

Brown a 4 year starter. Branch is been very active last 2 years Roberts a rookie who got hurt. Johnson was never expected to take rolles job right of the back and now rhodes is there so being a 3rd pick and being a serviceable back up and solid contributor on special teams is not bad at all

The Devil Birds just got cha

by DaCards on Sep 4, 2010 10:08 PM MDT via mobile reply actions  

+1

Also Keith is a hit? Let’s let time tell us on that one, he was like johnson and skelton late round project players….they were/all very raw when they came to the cardinals…too early to tell on any of them

by Cardsfan928 on Sep 4, 2010 10:29 PM MDT reply actions  

+11

Couldn’t agree more. That’s why guys like LSH, Reggie Walker, and now Stephen Williams are some of my favourite Cardinals.

Regarding Levi Brown, I agree that he is far from being a bust, I just think you are hoping for more than a serviceable starter with the 5th overall pick.

On the other hand, when you spend a 7th round pick on a guy like Brandon Keith, and he later develops into a serviceable starter (jury is still out…), that’s a huge win.

by CanadianCardsFan on Sep 5, 2010 2:19 PM MDT up reply actions  

Think it has something to do with the nature of the early rounds

You’re more willing to reach for someone you’re not as certain about with the concern that another team will scoop him up (Branch, Washington). Likewise, you become enamored with so-and-so and nab him when you feel other teams have decided to take a pass, but sometimes there is a good reason they fell all the way to you (Leinart, Wells, Williams, RJ). Teams also fall in love with athletes and will disregard potential flaws and negatives with their college production with the intent to develop them (Buster Davis). As you can see from these examples, even with those considerations, there’s just no surefire way to determine who will be successful and who will not. As for the late rounds, it’s all about getting the guys you want at the price you want, and if you whiff, it’s not a big deal.

Another factor that skews our picks is that we’re fielding the fad defense of the moment. Effective 3-4 players are high in demand and low in supply. Most OLB’s are projects, players that need to be converted to a new position to be effective, a very inconsistent process. On top of that, 1-3 teams a season decide to convert their traditionally 4-3 base over to the D based on one or two players on their roster, which puts an even bigger strain on the supply.

As with everyone else, I am inclined to disagree with some of your assessments, but keep in mind that successful teams are continually buoyed by successful draft classes. Look at the good teams, and then examine their draft classes from the last few years. Then consider the bad teams. How many players did the Lions draft within the last 5 years that are still with the team? How many of those guys are still even in the league? I’ll wager that there aren’t very many, but even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while (Calvin Johnson).

by tw3kr on Sep 8, 2010 4:09 AM MDT reply actions  

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