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QB Addendum: Trade Value Analysis

Another Day, Another QB Thread

Here's a look at some of the recent QB trades that have gone down, and a light comparison between past moves and some of the moves we've been considering. We'll start with a few rudimentary statistics (if you want to know how the QB's are on 3rd downs, in the red-zone, or other important categories, you'll have to find better references than I did). As is the nature with dealing some of these unknown-quantity QB's, there's not a lot to go on other than preseason numbers. I wouldn't call it reliable, but it's all we have. When I say this price or that price would be fair, it is based off of both my comparison to similar players and the assumption that, after many painstaking hours, our front office has (hypothetically) decided X guy is the dude we want. Fair warning: there's a lot to digest here.

Note: I started writing this post a week or two ago, but at this point it's more of an addendum to the following discussions:
Kolb Vs. Schaub
A Possible QB Armageddon
The Ugly Truth

Jesus Hair
At the time of this trade, the face of Suave's "For Men" product line had never appeared in a regular season game.
Preseason Totals, San Diego:
104/197 54.3% 540 yds 5.2 Avg 5-7 (TD-Int)
Not a lot of throws, not a lot of good. With so little to go on, I'm kind of surprised he commanded even a small bidding war. With this trade as a precedent, making a move for non-established unknowns may be more expensive this year. Here's what he did for Seattle last season:
Preseason '10, SEA:
46/90 51.1% 634 yds 7.1 Avg 4-4
Regular Season '10, SEA:
57/99 57.6 507 yds 5.1 Avg 2-3

Kevin Kolb
Let's face it, his price could be anywhere from two seconds to laughably prohibitive (1sts, 2nds, DRC, Beanie, Kitchen Sink).
For full statblock of Kolb and Schaub, please refer to: Kolb Vs. Schaub
Another Kolb Naysayer, from PFF.com

MATT SCHAUB
On paper, Kolb's value should be roughly equivalent to Shaub's, I would think. Kolb has more experience but his numbers aren't any better. If you believe his absurd inconsistency is a product of inexperience and something he will out-grow, then Kolb would be worth that kind of investment. I don't believe any team should be expected to pay more than the price established with the Schaub deal, despite the current league-wide QB climate.


Post-Apocalypse QBs:

CALEB HANIE
Preseason Totals:
70/116 60.3% 843 Yards 7.3 Avg 6-4

Hanie has appeared in 4 regular season games, but his accrued 14 attempts aren't worth judging. I am assuming you saw him play Green Bay last year. He looked pretty good but it's a little crazy to judge a QB off of one game. Compared to the "matches" we've been hearing about for Arizona, Hanie has the least experience. However, his pretty-good preseason numbers and his showing against Green Bay in the playoffs cement his value somewhere above Jesus Hair but definitely below Schaub or Kolb. I think a 2nd round pick would be fair (right around the value of Holylocks). He will be the No. 2 in Chicago this year if he can beat out Nathan Enderle, but their offensive coordinator, Mike Martz, has never really committed to the guy so acquiring him might be a possibility.

DREW STANTON
Regular Season, Career:
104/187 55.6% 1158 Yards 6.2 Avg 5-9
Regular Season, '10:
69/119 58% 780 Yards 6.6 Avg 4-3

Showed fairly well in relief in Detroit this year, well enough to potentially earn a No. 2 job somewhere. Detroit placed a second-round tender on him to play a reserve role but I'd think we could woo him with our depth chart and a decent contract, and the cost of a 2nd round pick would be fair value for a player like Stanton who appears to be on the rise. Note that Stanton may be a true free agent depending on the new CBA.

And now, the sticker shock segment!

According to the trade value chart, Schaub cost:
100 (1st round swap; 8th-to-10th)
500 (2nd; pick 8)
420 (next year's 2nd; pick 16)
Total: 1020 (roughly equivalent to Round 1, Pick 15)

Put That Hair in a Commercial's cost:
100 (2nd round swap; pick 8 to pick 28)
230 (3rd; pick 8)
Total: 330 (equivalent to Round 2, Pick 25)

Matt Cassel + Mike Vrabel:
560 (2nd; pick 2)
Judging by most of these deals, KC got a really good price for a player with a nice mix of experience, potential, and a little bit of that unknown risk factor. It's not like Vrabel was just a throw-in, either, having started 30 of 32 games for the Chiefs.

Jay Cutler + Round 5, Pick 12 (worth 36):
900 (1st; pick 18)
1250 (1st in 2010; pick 11)
+Kyle Orton (hey, not bad)
Total: 2114
This is the price of an established starter? Another established starter and omgwtfbbq draft picks?

Brady Quinn:
23.4 (6th; pick 10)
? 2012 conditional (probably not very much)
+Peyton Hillis (lolpwnd)
Total: Josh McDaniels' tenure as head coach

Donovan McNabb
530 (2nd; pick 5)
86 (4th; pick 8)
Total: 616 (roughly equivalent to Round 1, Pick 30)

Hypothetical: Kyle Orton
To put an estimate on our 2012 draft pick values, let's say the QB we add takes us into the playoffs but not very far.
350 (2nd; pick 23)
We've also heard recently he may be available for:
155 (3rd; pick 23)
56 (5th; pick 23)
Total: 211
This is probably too cheap. I could see Orton commanding a Cassel-type deal, though that's just my opinion. His price has, supposedly, been on the rise recently.

Hypothetical: Kevin Kolb
Based on the above presumption (an early playoff exit this year with a new QB at the helm) and the most-recent rumor of Kolb being available for either a 1st or two 2nds:
760 (1st; pick 23)
or
350 (2nd; pick 23)
410 (2nd in 2013; pick 17)
Total: 760
If everything worked out this way, this doesn't look like a bad price. We'd be paying a bit less than Houston paid for Schaub to acquire a player with a bit more experience but similar question marks.

Help Still Wanted

If we were to start someone like Kolb, Hanie, or Stanton, these players might be worth bringing in as back-ups or mentors. Ideally they wouldn't be playing much -- just a few quarters in relief, maybe a game or two. If the starter were to miss multiple games for whatever reason, it might be worth it to go ahead with Skelton.

Marc Bulger
Bulger would be signed for the knowledge and experience he brings. Baltimore paid him handsomely to be a back-up last year. No reason to assume they're the only team that would.

Billy Volek
In this hypothetical, we're looking for a solid spot-duty man. At 35, Volek has made a career out of being that guy.

Jim Sorgi
Has only thrown for 929 yards in his career, but has been effective in those brief appearances. He was on injured reserve last year so rust is a concern, but Sorgi has been well-regarded around the league for some time.

Patrick Ramsey
Not a bad option for an experienced, dirt-cheap #2 or #3 but has had trouble sticking on a roster the last couple years, which probably isn't a good sign.

Here's a final link for your consideration:
NFL Network's brief scouting report of Kolb, Orton, and Bulger

<em>This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Revenge of the Birds' (ROTB) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of ROTB's editors.</em>

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