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Kevin Kolb Vs. John Skelton - A Statistical Breakdown

While I’m sure the Kevin Kolb vs. John Skelton debate has been covered ad nasuem, one thing I haven’t seen is a really thorough breakdown of their stats (and I’m talking about more than just their completion percentage or yards per attempt). Also I apologize if this has been covered already and if so, just feel free to ignore/delete this fanpost. I’ll admit I don’t always visit RoTB on a daily basis, as I should, but hey we’re not all perfect, right? Anyways, I’ll admit upfront that I’m a Kolb supporter but my goal in this particular post is too stay as unbiased as possible and simply present the stats as they appear.

Star-divide

First and foremost one of the most telling stats for any QB is how many points their offense scores:

  • Kolb starts: 20.25 points per game
  • Skelton starts: 18.75 points per game

(Just in case anyone is wondering, Patrick Peterson split his punt return TD’s evenly between Kolb and Skelton starts and there were no defensive TD’s this year so these numbers are equal and accurate. I also included the second San Fran game as a Kolb start instead of Skelton start since Kolb threw only one pass.)

Now for a quick look at the stats that we all know and love:

  • Completion %: Slight edge for Kolb (57.7 to 54.9)
  • Average Yards per attempt: Slight edge for Kolb (7.73 to 6.96)
  • Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (via Pro-football reference): Slight edge for Kolb (5.5 to 4.5)
  • Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (via Football Outsiders): Slight edge for Kolb (-25 to -220)
  • Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (via Football Outsiders): Slight edge for Kolb (-12.5% to 22.2%)
  • Effective Yards (via Football Outsiders): Slight edge for Kolb (1,429 to 1,303)

Ok so it looks like most of the basic and advanced stats indicate that Kolb had a slightly better season than Skelton, although admittedly it’s not a landslide by any means. How about some situational stats now:

Home/Indoors: This jumped out at me immediately; Skelton had much better stats at home vs. the road and indoors vs. outdoors. His completion percentage plummets to under 50% either outdoors or not at home and 10 or his 14 interceptions came in away games. Kolb is pretty even in outdoor vs. indoor games but still had much better stats at home vs. on the road (5% difference in completion percentage).

3rd Down Passing: I always love this stat because we all know how critical 3rd downs are in this league. This is a good one to evaluate too because they had a very similar number of attempts (77 for Skelton and 70 for Kolb). Kolb had a higher completion percentage (55.7 vs. 53.2) but Skelton had a higher YPA (7.14 vs. 6.54). Skelton threw two TDs and four picks on third down while Kolb was even at one and one. Kolb had a higher QB rating, if you value this stat, at 74.6 vs. 63.2. One thing that was kind of odd on third downs is that Skelton’s completion percentage got worse as the "yards to go" dropped (56.7% on 9+ yards but just 38.5% on 1-2 yards). Not sure what that means but just thought it was odd enough to mention.

Directional Passing: I saw this on ESPN and had to mention it just because I thought it was very interesting and could possibly explain some game planning/play calling for each QB. Skelton was at his best (60% comp and 9.93 YPA) on passes to the middle of the field but at his worst (50% comp and 5.92 YPA) on passes to the sideline. Kolb on the other hand was basically the exact opposite being at his worst on passes to the center of the field (50% and 5.5 YPA) but at his best on passes to the sideline (60% and 8.47 YPA).

Red Zone passing: Another crucially important statistic and surprisingly both QBs were pretty solid inside the red zone. Neither QB threw an interception inside the 20 and they both had QB ratings above 98. Skelton had a higher completion percentage (57.1 vs 52.6) and while both their YPA seem really low (conservative play calling maybe?), Skelton had the slight edge there (3.36 to 3.05). In case anyone was also wondering, Skelton was at his best either between his own 1 and 20 or in the other teams red zone while Kolb was at his best at his own 21-50. Another interesting factoid, eight of Skelton’s 11 touchdowns came from the red zone. Kolb on the other hand had the most TDs in between his own 21-50 (he had just three TDs from the red zone).

First Half vs. Second Half:I had to include this because of Skelton’s reputation as a comeback king and the stats certainly reflect that he’s a much better QB in the second half than the first and that he gets better in every quarter. Kolb on the other hand, is somewhat the opposite. His completion percentage goes from 60.6% in the first half to 53.7% in the second, although his YPA go up from 6.63 to 8.38 and those two variables combined equal to the exact same QB rating of 78.3 from the first half to the second. Skelton is a miserable QB in the first half completing just 49.1% of his passes for 5.27 yards per attempt and he threw twice as many INTs and TDs, but to his credit he turns it around in the second half with a 57.6% completion rate for 7.85 YPA and a 1:1 TD to INT ratio. Oh and in case you’re wondering both QB completed every single pass they threw in overtime this season (most amazing stat of the year?).

So that’s a very long winded analysis and I’m not sure how it’ll be perceived but I came away with this thought: Both Skelton and Kolb were below average QBs in 2011, but Kolb did play better, even if only by the slightest of margins. I don’t know what exactly that means going into 2012 and I think a reasonable argument can be made either way as who should be the starter. Skelton is much younger but has been in the system longer than Kolb and despite the age difference their level of on the field experience is much closer than their age would suggest. Thoughts?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Revenge of the Birds' (ROTB) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of ROTB's editors.

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As for the redzone YPA thing, I’d guess that is just from how much smaller the field is over there. A lot of times the YPA seems to go down in the redzone a lot when I look up those numbers.

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by JoeCB1991 on Jan 19, 2012 11:56 AM MST reply actions  

Good write up! Rec'd

Enjoyed the unbiased look at ALL stats between QB’s.

Sorry folks, park's closed. Moose out front shoulda told ya.

by Ghettoboxx on Jan 19, 2012 11:58 AM MST reply actions  

I for one

am looking forward to continuing this debate until the end of time (otherwise known as the end of preseason when the coaching staff picks one or the other to be the starter).

I see no tangible difference between the 2 other than W/L record. I will not fault Kolb solely for the losses, just as I won’t credit Skelton solely for the wins as seems to be the MO for some fans.

One of the arguments that I (and others) have brought up is the difference in how well the defense played as the season went on. I think there are likely 2 points of view on this:

1. The defense played better with Skelton as the QB becasue he was able to move the ball better than Kolb was and keep the defense off the field.
2. Skelton played better with the improved defense because the defense was able to make stops and get off the field.

I subscribe to the 2nd one, and am confident had Kolb stayed healthy he would have had similar stats (possibly better) than Skelton and had a smiilar W/L record.

I have stated previously, and will do so again here, I think Kolb will show improvement with a full offseason and will win the starting role outright next season. If he is unable to stay healthy next season or is benched in favor of Skelton or someone else, then I will agree that Kolb is a bust.

We all bleed Cardinal Red, but most of us don't recognize it!

"It takes no talent to give great effort"--Chris Petersen

Patrick Peterson is the 2nd coming of Deion Sanders. They even wear the same number.

by robloosli on Jan 19, 2012 12:01 PM MST reply actions  

Let me clarify before people start arguing
I see no tangible difference between the 2 other than W/L record. I will not fault Kolb solely for the losses, just as I won’t credit Skelton solely for the wins as seems to be the MO for some fans.


By no tangible difference I mean, stats are similar, each has strangths and weaknesses that mirror each other, both are inconsistent, and neither has seperated from the other as to who should start.

We all bleed Cardinal Red, but most of us don't recognize it!

"It takes no talent to give great effort"--Chris Petersen

Patrick Peterson is the 2nd coming of Deion Sanders. They even wear the same number.

by robloosli on Jan 19, 2012 12:05 PM MST up reply actions  

Another remarkedly similar stat between these two.....

Average time of possession in their starts are both in the 28 minute range. They both had 4 games over 30 and if you are absolutely looking for a difference, Kolb’s were more consistent (all between 21 and 31 minutes) while Skelton had the low (15:44) and high (35:19) for the season.

by Steamin' Beamin' on Jan 19, 2012 12:20 PM MST up reply actions  

Agreed

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[I have always lived in Arizona, dad is from Chicago].

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by JoeCB1991 on Jan 19, 2012 12:41 PM MST up reply actions  

The defense played better with Skelton as the QB becasue he was able to move the ball better than Kolb was and keep the defense off the field.

I just don’t, and will not, agree with that. The TOP was basically the same and I am sorry but if you watched the games Skelton was GOD AWFUL for 3 quarters in all his starts.

"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
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by Airwave on Jan 19, 2012 1:17 PM MST up reply actions  

He was just listing two of the arguments people made, and he agreed with the second one

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by JoeCB1991 on Jan 19, 2012 1:30 PM MST up reply actions  

Oh I know

I was just kind of adding what I thought haha.

"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!

by Airwave on Jan 19, 2012 1:34 PM MST up reply actions  

I do agree with you on that one though

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[I have always lived in Arizona, dad is from Chicago].

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by JoeCB1991 on Jan 19, 2012 1:44 PM MST up reply actions  

random

but how do you quote something with only what you’re quoting in the box like your comment above as opposed to my comment even further above that boxed the quote and my comment?

We all bleed Cardinal Red, but most of us don't recognize it!

"It takes no talent to give great effort"--Chris Petersen

Patrick Peterson is the 2nd coming of Deion Sanders. They even wear the same number.

by robloosli on Jan 19, 2012 8:26 PM MST up reply actions  

I just copy and paste what you want to quote

then highlight it in your comment and click the " button (blue quotes) above.

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by Steamin' Beamin' on Jan 20, 2012 7:55 AM MST up reply actions  

agreed completely

and as Joe states below, I was pointing out the 2 most prevalent thought processes on this notion.

We all bleed Cardinal Red, but most of us don't recognize it!

"It takes no talent to give great effort"--Chris Petersen

Patrick Peterson is the 2nd coming of Deion Sanders. They even wear the same number.

by robloosli on Jan 19, 2012 8:28 PM MST up reply actions  

For the

3rd down passing, what were the average yards for a first down for each QB?

The directional passing seems contradictory. At first glance I would think it means that Skelton doesn’t see much of the field, just the middle. But then again, it’s just as much of an indictment of Kolb that he doesn’t see the whole field either?
Just weird that neither one of them could hit the TE up the seam.

by KDean75 on Jan 19, 2012 12:19 PM MST reply actions  

not sure that I saw the average "to go" on third downs

But here’s attempts for each for distance (Kolb-Skelton):

9+ yards: 37-30
3-8 yards: 28-36
1-2 yards: 10-13

by Steamin' Beamin' on Jan 19, 2012 12:23 PM MST up reply actions  

How about sacks?

I know both took about the same sacks but Skelton seemed much better at avoiding pressure.

by Jesse Reynolds on Jan 19, 2012 1:20 PM MST reply actions  

Correct sir

Skelton took less sacks (23 to 30)

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by Steamin' Beamin' on Jan 19, 2012 1:29 PM MST up reply actions  

Both of them were in the bottom 10 of the NFL (out of 34) in sack percentage though

Kolb was 2nd worse with 10.6% of his dropbacks being sacks, and Skelton was 9th with 7.7% of his dropbacks being sacks.

Skelton was better at not being sacked, but they both took too many sacks.

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[I have always lived in Arizona, dad is from Chicago].

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by JoeCB1991 on Jan 19, 2012 1:32 PM MST up reply actions  

Also looking at the top 10, it is filled with NFC West guys

Kolb at number two, Bradford at five, Smith at six, Tarvaris at eight, and Skelton at nine.

Arizona Cardinals/Chicago Bears fan
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[I have always lived in Arizona, dad is from Chicago].

Leading the NFL in swagtangibles

by JoeCB1991 on Jan 19, 2012 1:41 PM MST up reply actions  

Once again an argument of how similar the QB play was this year

Kolb was more consistent in games but was overall bad. Skelton was bad for about 3 quarters and then decided he can play football in the 4th. Seriously, every stat up there is just about even. This debate has gone stale for me over the season because when I look at it both QBs weren’t good enough to start so what is the freaking argument about? Let these guys duke it out next offseason to start and I just hope one of them is actually worthy of staying on our roster past next year.

"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!

by Airwave on Jan 19, 2012 1:20 PM MST reply actions  

The argument will continue

Because it gives us something to do until next season starts.

by tonyman121 on Jan 19, 2012 1:23 PM MST reply actions  

Also, perception

Is definitely influenced by outcome. Notice how happy Broncos fans are? Is Tebow a better QB than Orton?

I would also add that many (including myself) will be much more tolerant of mistakes by a 5th round, 2nd year player who’s never seen real play time or practice time (he was 3rd string last season until the 1st 2 QBs went down, and then no offseason this year) than a 5 year veteran who’s been on multiple teams and is getting the big bucks.

To be honest, I’d rather trade Kolb and Skelton and DRC and Levi Brown for Peyton Manning’s left nutsack.

by tonyman121 on Jan 19, 2012 1:26 PM MST reply actions  

I would also add that many (including myself) will be much more tolerant of mistakes by a 5th round, 2nd year player who’s never seen real play time or practice time (he was 3rd string last season until the 1st 2 QBs went down, and then no offseason this year) than a 5 year veteran who’s been on multiple teams and is getting the big bucks.

That is perfectly fair. I have no problem with people doing that at all.

"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!

by Airwave on Jan 19, 2012 1:36 PM MST up reply actions  

Don't worry, when Inso shows up the fun will really begin with how passionate he is

Arizona Cardinals/Chicago Bears fan
Phoenix Suns, Arizona Diamondbacks, Phoenix Coyotes, Arizona Rattlers fan
[I have always lived in Arizona, dad is from Chicago].

Leading the NFL in swagtangibles

by JoeCB1991 on Jan 19, 2012 1:43 PM MST up reply actions   1 recs

One small caveat to this argument

The guy you’re all being more “tolerant” on, did have one more year in the system than the new guy. And to say he’s never had any real playing time isn’t very accurate. Kolb had started seven games and Skelton had started four games coming into the season.

I’m not saying their equal in terms of expectations by any means but giving a pass to Skelton based on experience, or lack thereof, is a copout.

Go big or go home!! Bet big to win big!!

by Steamin' Beamin' on Jan 19, 2012 1:47 PM MST up reply actions  

Hey, I don't do that

But I can see why someone would do that. They are both in the NFL for me (it is more amazing when a low round draft pick succeeds) and have to prove they belong as a starter. The spot they were drafted doesn’t matter to me once they are in the league. I will say I expect more from someone making more money/drafted higher/has more experience but I will not give someone a pass because they make less money or something.

I don’t believe Skelton has less experience though (in overall time in NFL, yes) because Kolb came late into training camp, meaning he didn’t get the playbook after the draft when they removed the lockout for a day. Remember, Kolb is learning a brand new system (he had even less time than the rookies this season) and had no offseason to do it. After this offseason will be the time I will be judging Kolb, and Skelton as well. Both would have had enough time to show if they can be effective, and if neither of them show us something it is time for a new direction.

"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!

by Airwave on Jan 19, 2012 2:10 PM MST up reply actions  

Be careful with "multiple"

Kolb’s only been on two teams in his career, so while technically “multiple” is correct, generally people will assume 3-4 or more if you say it that way.

by CardsFan1976 on Jan 20, 2012 4:20 PM MST up reply actions  

It's a difficult arguemt

I understand both sides, Skelton appeared to bring wins, Kolb the opposite. Like Tonyman said, perception is everything.
I really look forward to training camp… Maybe a 16 game season wouldn’t be such a bad idea…

by Jesse Reynolds on Jan 19, 2012 1:37 PM MST reply actions  

I think it is pretty obvious that Kolb is going to enter training camp and all offseason work as the starting QB. But I will say the one thing that excites me about Skelton is the flashes of upside that he shows.

He we make a throw that literally three maybe four other QB’s in the NFL can make, and he will make it look easy. But then a couple of plays later he will throw the ball straight at an opposition player.

There is some serious upside to Skelton, but he needs to find that consistency soon. I am still on the same wagon I was hitched to last offseason. I don’t see anything more from Kolb than we are currently getting. He does not flash the huge upside, and he has always been the kind of QB he is now. However right now, that Kolb QB is better than what Skelton is as an overall QB right now.

I honestly don’t think our future at the QB position is on the roster. Kolb is nothing more than a league average QB, and I don’t think Skelton will ever get the consistency needed. It is going to be interesting to see if the club is going to be willing to stick with league average in Kolb and waste the prime years of a go like Fitzgerald, and whether the Club will be willing to cut their losses and take a risk on a rookie at some point in the next 24 months.

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by khodder on Jan 19, 2012 1:47 PM MST reply actions  

I really do hope there is a QB competition next year

I didn’t see either QB separate from the other so why not have them compete? If Kolb can’t beat out Skelton then he doesn’t deserve to be on the roster anyways. Not saying Skelton sucks here, just with what Kolb is making he can’t be just the backup (and stay on our roster for the future). I could care less who the QB is, I just want someone who you can see as a legit NFL starter that can give you some consistency. Next season will tell us if our future QB is on the roster.

"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!

by Airwave on Jan 19, 2012 2:15 PM MST up reply actions  

Well said, Airwave...

And you, Steamin’ Beamin, have written a terrific post. It would be great to see some more of this in the future. As for the QB debate, I don’t think anything can be said which has not already been said. Let the competition begin!

by Spikedriver on Jan 19, 2012 4:07 PM MST up reply actions  

I agree with the skelton vs Kolb comparison

Greg Cosell said something that was interesting. He mentioned in a podcast that if you didn’t know which is which, you would think the big bucks had been paid for Skelton based on overall skills and presence. It very well could be the lack of time in the system for Kolb. Cosell could be wrong. But everything being so similar I think Skelton has a better demeanor and presence back there, as well as the better arm.
I believe Kolb has the higher floor while Skelton has the better ceiling. That said I say give Kolb a real tryout next year. If he proves he can play up to his contract then great. Worst case scenario is Kolb flames out and Skelton is starting by the end of next season but Kolb should be given at least 10-12 games to prove himself.

by ELrupps on Jan 19, 2012 3:58 PM MST up reply actions  

Interesting, but

I still think Whisenhunt has to go with the player he feels gives him the better chance on winning despite stats. Right now, it seems that Kolb has the better stats, but Skelton on the other hand is younger, and more physically gifted than Kolb. I thought the stat here that played the biggest factor was directional passing. The fact that Skelton had 60% of his passes down the middle shows that he is making throws that very many QBs aren’t willing to make. Kolb seem to be throwing it to his checkdown too many times and not seeing the middle of the field. We saw alot of out routes and seeing him continously run out of the pocket to see if he can find anyone on the sidelines. Its obvious that Skelton’s throws where much more difficult to make especially under pressure. With that being said I still believe that Skelton will probably end up being the better QB and winning the job in the offseason.

Keep it real!!

by AZ Fan #1 on Jan 19, 2012 4:14 PM MST reply actions  

I think you're misunderstanding the directional passing stats

I think you assumed that “passes to the middle” meant “down the middle” when it could easily be 5-10 yard crossing routes as opposed to someone running a go pattern from the slot or something similar. Because your comment made me think of how each QB might have done according to how far down the field they were throwing, I pulled those stats as well.

Skelton: On passes from behind the LOS to 10 yards completed 63.8% of his passes for 5.33 YPA and had 7 TDs and 7 INTs
On passes more than 10 yards downfield he completed 39% of passes for 9.75 YPA and 4 TDs and 7 INTs

Kolb: On passes from behind the LOS to 10 yards completed 63.2% of his passes for 6.5 YPA and had 6 TDs and 3 INTs
On passes more than 10 yards downfield he completed 43.7% of passes for 10.87 YPA and 3 TDs and 5 INTs

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by Steamin' Beamin' on Jan 20, 2012 8:09 AM MST up reply actions  

This is why I love stats (In context).

I’m sure so many would think that because Skelton has a bigger arm, he is more affective down the field than Kolb. When reality his lack of accuracy hurts him when he throws the ball deep.

by GraydonS on Jan 20, 2012 10:58 AM MST up reply actions  

Dont forget...

That this was a new system for Kolb and that Skelton has been here for longer. Skelton played last year some and still made some of the same boneheaded mistakes that he made last year. Warner played much like Kolb did when he was first inserted in to the lineup. Once he got the system he took off. I am sure that this is what the coaching staff and FO are hoping for. Had the Defense played the first half of the season as they did the last half, we wouldnt even be having this discussion. Kolb would have had a better record. He was also the victim of some pretty poor play, Stucki fumble,Feely’s 3 missed FG’s in Seatle, poor D against Giants and Ravens with huge leads, and several dropped balls by the WRs not named Fitz. WR play was terrible by the others. Skelton for 3 qrts is aweful. They got by with it this year. Wont be able to next year.

by ccnellie on Jan 19, 2012 5:17 PM MST reply actions  

Hold up,

Did Warner ever really take off? Don’t get me wrong Warner is proof that when we have a talented QB that Whiz’s offense is nearly unstoppable, however the same complexities and intricacy that makes it unstoppable is also it’s achilles heel. Let’s not forget how many games Warner threw plenty of INT’s in total blowouts he had.

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by INSOMAN1ATIC on Jan 19, 2012 9:18 PM MST up reply actions  

I think he meant going from Green to Whiz

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by JoeCB1991 on Jan 19, 2012 11:18 PM MST up reply actions  

1 stat I would have liked to have seen is Fitz's #s with both Qbs

Im sure his #s are much better with Skelton than Kolb. I know that shouldnt matter, but when you are paying him so much money it does. Plus, Fitz won the Philly and SF game by making catches only he can make and whoever is the starter next year needs to understand that even if he is covered you still throw it to him

by Redbird Nation #1 on Jan 19, 2012 5:20 PM MST reply actions  

Kolb in all games he played minus the 1 from 1 against SF; Fitz had 38 grabs for 658 yards and 2 TD’s, across an 8 game stretch. Average of 4.75 catches, 82.25 yards and .125 TD’s.

Fitz with Skelton: 43 grabs for 753 yards and 6 TD’s across 8 games. 5.375 catches, 94.125 yards and .75 TD’s.

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by khodder on Jan 19, 2012 5:42 PM MST up reply actions  

One of those 6 TDs in the Skelton games came from Bartel though

Take that one out and it is 42 for 730 and 5 TDs

5.25 catches, 91.25 yards, .625 TDs

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by JoeCB1991 on Jan 19, 2012 5:58 PM MST up reply actions  

Huh

Seemed like Fitz had all of his good games with Skelton but it was more even than I thought

by Redbird Nation #1 on Jan 19, 2012 6:53 PM MST up reply actions  

I agree that Skelton threw to Fitz more but that was also his downfall.

Most of his picks were thrown in the Direction of Fitzgerald. The thing with Kolb is that he’s afraid to throw to Fitz in double coverage. That’s the same thing that we faced with Kurt Warner when he came in. He finally came out of the shell late 2007 all the way till the end. I’m definately not comparing the two, but it’s an interesting comparison.

by Alex Mann on Jan 19, 2012 6:59 PM MST up reply actions  

also to note

Beanie and Doucet had very good game with Kolb under center. It doesn’t matter who puts the points on the board, as long as they go up there

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by GreaZzy on Jan 19, 2012 8:20 PM MST up reply actions  

Agreed

Arizona Cardinals/Chicago Bears fan
Phoenix Suns, Arizona Diamondbacks, Phoenix Coyotes, Arizona Rattlers fan
[I have always lived in Arizona, dad is from Chicago].

Leading the NFL in swagtangibles

by JoeCB1991 on Jan 19, 2012 9:00 PM MST up reply actions  

Fitz did have a couple of 100 yard games with Kolb at least

Giants and Redskins off the top of my head

Arizona Cardinals/Chicago Bears fan
Phoenix Suns, Arizona Diamondbacks, Phoenix Coyotes, Arizona Rattlers fan
[I have always lived in Arizona, dad is from Chicago].

Leading the NFL in swagtangibles

by JoeCB1991 on Jan 19, 2012 11:19 PM MST up reply actions  

This is the best write up on this topic so far

Thank you for the civil tone and in depth analysis. I have really been getting tired of the vitriol!.
On the two guys, I like them both, am encouraged going forward that the Cards are going to be much better with a full camp and off season at this position and whoever wins the spot next year I will feel preety good going into game 1.

by Birdman from Mesa on Jan 19, 2012 6:24 PM MST reply actions  

So I guess it's easy to conclude that:

Bartel should start.

Joe Saunders: "They Giants played a really good game, so hats off to us"

by Skii on Jan 19, 2012 7:01 PM MST reply actions  

ARE YOU BLIND?!

NO WAY SHOULD BARTEL BE STARTING! THESE STATS CLEARLY SHOW THAT DOCKETT IS THE BEST OPTION AT QB! JEEZ LOUISE SOME PEOPLE ARE DENSE!

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by GreaZzy on Jan 19, 2012 8:22 PM MST up reply actions  

How could anyone stop it

It’s a freaking Gator!

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by Airwave on Jan 20, 2012 2:14 PM MST up reply actions  

He's his own O-line

And look at those gator-handling skills. No fumbles from him.

Joe Saunders: "They Giants played a really good game, so hats off to us"

by Skii on Jan 20, 2012 3:54 PM MST up reply actions  

Anyone have a PFF subscription mind adding any stats they have calculated/rated that aren’t already listed?

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by Pantology on Jan 19, 2012 7:07 PM MST reply actions  

I know some people don't give much credence to their ratings

but it is a way to show their impact play to play.

On season:

Kolb: -7.1 overall, Skelton: -26.9 overall

For individual games, Kolb had four net negative ratings and one net positive. Skelton had seven net negative games and not a single net positive.

Take that how you like.

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by Jess Root on Jan 19, 2012 8:51 PM MST up reply actions  

I'm heard so many differing views on their validity that I didn't know if I should include them

Although I guess if you’re comparing two people and they’re judged under the same parameters, that it doesn’t matter if the system is flawed, as long as the system is the same.

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by Steamin' Beamin' on Jan 20, 2012 8:16 AM MST up reply actions  

Not necessarily

but it is very likely that it wouldn’t matter. The system of marking could favour one style of play over another, and thus grade the former player higher, despite possibly having equal or worse play. Personally though, I like PFF, especially for Lineman, when it is difficult to judge how well they played unless you actually watch them all game

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by GreaZzy on Jan 20, 2012 10:26 AM MST up reply actions  

Correction

Kolb had three net positive grades

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by Jess Root on Jan 19, 2012 9:00 PM MST up reply actions  

Kolb apparently better under pressure than Skelton
http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/01/31/pressure-and-the-2011-quarterbacks/

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by Pantology on Jan 31, 2012 8:38 PM MST up reply actions  

Neither one really did that well though

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by JoeCB1991 on Jan 31, 2012 11:10 PM MST up reply actions  

Right. #17 nothing to brag about, but I love numbers and it is just some more numbers to add to the post. :)

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by Pantology on Feb 1, 2012 8:05 AM MST up reply actions  

Good thing,

Wins and Losses are all that matter at the end of 60.

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by INSOMAN1ATIC on Jan 19, 2012 9:20 PM MST reply actions  

Then we should desperately try to sign Vince Young

He’s got a heck of a winning percentage.

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by Steamin' Beamin' on Jan 20, 2012 8:17 AM MST up reply actions  

And Tebow has a great winning percentage

Would you be comfortable going out with him as the starter every week?

Joe Saunders: "They Giants played a really good game, so hats off to us"

by Skii on Jan 20, 2012 3:55 PM MST up reply actions  

Absolutely,

Tebow will get the Broncos back to the post season.

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by INSOMAN1ATIC on Jan 21, 2012 8:06 PM MST up reply actions  

So Kolb is slightly better...

and that’s my point. Its not whose the best QB since both were weak. Its where do you want to invest? Do we want to hope for the playoffs with Kolb? Can he stay healthy? Can he consistently be better than average? I don’t think so. If we got a good year or two from Kolb he won’t make the long haul. So, can we make the playoffs with Skelton? How much will he improve if he’s already not that far behind Kolb? I don’t think Skelton would lose much backing up Kolb. I’m a gambler, I say play Skelton with Kolb as backup. The reverse is just as good except Skelton does not develop as quickly.

by MooseTheDog on Jan 19, 2012 10:15 PM MST reply actions  

So you're assuming that Skelton is still developing and as a result will improve

But Kolb is a finished product and this is the best he’s going to be?

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by Steamin' Beamin' on Jan 20, 2012 8:19 AM MST up reply actions  

Entering his 6th season,

I highly doubt there is a whole lot more to his game than he has already shown.

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by INSOMAN1ATIC on Jan 21, 2012 8:07 PM MST up reply actions  

Two ways to look at that....

Entering his sixth season but only second as a starter and second in a new offense. I fully expect him to be a better QB in 2012.

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by Steamin' Beamin' on Jan 23, 2012 8:27 AM MST up reply actions  

Assuming,

he plays a whole season. BIG chance that may never happen.

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by INSOMAN1ATIC on Jan 29, 2012 9:59 AM MST up reply actions  

How do you know Kolb won't improve?

He showed a ton of improvement in the Dallas game.

And also, if we end up going with Skelton as the starter, Kolb will be cut within seconds.

Joe Saunders: "They Giants played a really good game, so hats off to us"

by Skii on Jan 20, 2012 3:56 PM MST up reply actions  

One thing I would also like to see to help the debate

Is the stats on the Running game for each QB and their starts. The offence really opens up when we can get the ground game successful, and changes how the D is playing the QB.

Also I curious about the numbers of their drives. Ex who had the most successful drives down filed, Who had the most long drives, Who scored more on big plays.

by Will Smith on Jan 20, 2012 10:12 AM MST reply actions  

I bet this would be hard to get,

but I would be interested in seeing the kind of Defense they played against.

For example, the percent of plays that Kolb or Skelton faced 8-9 in the box.

by GraydonS on Jan 20, 2012 11:02 AM MST up reply actions  

I would bet that when teams gameplanned for Skelton

that they focused on stopping the run, and forcing Skelton to beat them.

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by GreaZzy on Jan 20, 2012 11:46 AM MST up reply actions  

Here's a cheap, quick look at how Beanie faired with each QB

It’s not the total running game but I could crunch these numbers in just a couple minutes instead of the hour or so it would take to go game by game in total. Luckily Beanie started 7 Kolb games and 7 Skelton games.

Kolb games: totaled 512 yards on 133 carries for an avg of 3.85
Skelton games: totaled 474 yards on 112 carries for an avg of 4.23

The problem you run into with these numbers is that the Rams game (228 yards on 27 carries) skews the overall numbers so bad that it’s hard to use them at all. If you want to omit that game though and conclude that teams did load the box in an effort to force Skelton to throw then you could make that argument.

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by Steamin' Beamin' on Jan 20, 2012 12:42 PM MST up reply actions  

Drive stats would be exhausting to compile b/c you’d have to go game by game and break down the drive charts. I don’t have that much time. Rushing per game shouldn’t be terribly hard, you can get that number off the each game summary, but I don’t have time today.

On big plays, I remember off the top of my head that Skelton didn’t have a pass over 40 yards and Kolb only had one (although it resulted in a TD). I posts stats further up in the comment thread about stats on passes over 10 yards and basically neither QB was good but Kolb had a slight edge.

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by Steamin' Beamin' on Jan 20, 2012 12:29 PM MST up reply actions  

20 and 40 yard pass plays for Kolb and Skelton

23 and 8 for Kolb

31 and 7 for Skelton

Brady led the NFL in 20+ yard passes with 71, Eli led the NFL in 40+ yard passes with 18.

Also saw that Kolb averaged 28.1 passes per game (becomes 31.6 if you take out the 49ers game) and Skelton averaged 34.1 passes per game.

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by JoeCB1991 on Jan 20, 2012 2:27 PM MST up reply actions  

hmmm

Maybe ESPN is tracking how far the ball went in the air instead of the total length of the play. Here’s link where I got the stats from: LINK Hard to think ESPN could be that wrong

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by Steamin' Beamin' on Jan 20, 2012 2:44 PM MST up reply actions  

Yeah, I was just checking for the number of plays they each had that went that far

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by JoeCB1991 on Jan 20, 2012 3:07 PM MST up reply actions  

Great writeup

Just a minor quibble: a nearly 3% difference in completion % really isn’t “slight”. Since the range of QBs is basically between 70% and 50%, a 3% move in that range is actually pretty significant.

Otherwise, excellent stuff.

by CardsFan1976 on Jan 20, 2012 4:17 PM MST reply actions  

That's actually not true

More accurately would be to say “there is not much difference across the league in QB completion percentage”. You are forcing a stat to say something that it may not actually be saying.

Significance is not attributed based on what you think should separate groups of numbers. It is assigned based on 1)the difference between numbers (magnatude of effect) and 2)the number of data points to compare (power).

It is generally accpeted that significance is attributed to the probability of a hypothesis being correct with 95% certainty. Meaning, based on a set of obervations, there is a greater than 95% chance that your hypothesis is correct.

Here’s a practical example. Let’s say you think there are 2 kinds of quarterbacks- good ones and bad ones (both Kolb and Skelton are in the latter, BTW), and that you can measure “goodness” with “completion percentage”. Your pick out 5 QBs you think are “good”. If you plot a distribution of those QB’s completion percentages over the season, along with all other QB’s, you should see a clear difference in the distributions between the “good” group and the “not good” group. You can then test the probability that those two distributions are not actually the same. If you can show (with a student t-test, in this example, since you are assuming there are 2 normal ditributions) that these two groups are different with 95% certainty, then your assumption would be held to be correct, and it would be acceptable to say “I can predict who is a good QB and who is not based on completion percentage, biatches!”. Everything else is speculation and bad math.

I can tell you with great certainty there is no way in hell a 3% difference between 2 QBs with 8 games each is statistically significant. In fact, there is absolutely no difference between these numbers at all.

by tonyman121 on Jan 20, 2012 4:38 PM MST up reply actions  

I hate it too lol

"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!

by Airwave on Jan 24, 2012 12:06 AM MST up reply actions  

When we discuss things we have to drive them into the ground

Beat that horse until its remains turn into dust.

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by JoeCB1991 on Jan 24, 2012 2:44 PM MST up reply actions   1 recs

Just feels like running in circles

At this point at least

"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!

by Airwave on Jan 24, 2012 5:09 PM MST up reply actions  

Well,

to be honest, the argument was running in circles from the start

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by GreaZzy on Jan 25, 2012 3:39 PM MST up reply actions  

Yeah

But at least in the beginning it is new… Now it just feels like the Leinart crap all over again.

"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!

by Airwave on Jan 25, 2012 3:58 PM MST up reply actions  

Dude

Everyone knows Leinart is better than Kolb, Skelton and Bartell. DUH
:P

by Jesse Reynolds on Jan 25, 2012 4:35 PM MST up reply actions  

I don't know

Doucet seems like the underdog who might be able to win it all.

Joe Saunders: "They Giants played a really good game, so hats off to us"

by Skii on Jan 25, 2012 6:08 PM MST up reply actions  

He has yet to have an incomplete pass attempt as a Pro!

then again, he also hasn’t attempted a pass, but that doesn’t matter at this point

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by GreaZzy on Jan 25, 2012 7:15 PM MST up reply actions  

Honestly

He probably still is. We’ll never know.

by tonyman121 on Jan 26, 2012 8:28 AM MST up reply actions  

I was so upset when he got hurt in his first start with Houston

If he could have just finished the season, we could have seen if he was any good. But of course, the football god will never let us put the Leinart debate to rest.

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by GreaZzy on Jan 26, 2012 10:59 AM MST up reply actions  

Manning

If Arizona is really thinking about Getting Manning if he does get cut, then that tell me everything I need to know about how they feel about Kolb and his future with the team and makes this whole Kolb vs Skelton pointless.

by McCollum, Travis on Jan 26, 2012 1:31 PM MST reply actions  

Well

If Manning gets cut, so will Kolb. It sounds as if the Cardinals are willing to go ALL OUT to get Manning in Arizona. I am just hoping we land the guy.

"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!

by Airwave on Jan 26, 2012 4:38 PM MST up reply actions  

If that's true

Then the Colts should trade him, since another team may be willing to pay $28MIL for him. That way they get something in return. The conventional wisdom is that he’s not worth that much since his health is in question.

by tonyman121 on Jan 27, 2012 9:56 AM MST up reply actions  

The $28M bonus is due on March 8, trades can occur March 13

Indy would have to pay the bonus, have that bonus affect the 2012 cap, and the receiving team would get a screaming deal for Peyton without paying the $28M roster bonus.

by cardinalbrown on Jan 30, 2012 11:15 AM MST up reply actions  

They have continuously stated

They are not trading Manning. They say nothing of his future in Indy but they do say that he will not be traded.

"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!

by Airwave on Jan 30, 2012 3:48 PM MST up reply actions  

From what I'm hearing

If he gets cut, the Cardinals are going to try a lot to get him. But at the same time, so is every other team in the NFL that doesn’t need a QB.

Hopefully the fact that we have Fitz, a 1,000 yard rusher in Beanie Wells, a potential Top 10 defense, a heavily pass-oriented offense, and of course the knowledge that a veteran QB can come in here and do amazing, will attract him here. Who knows?

Joe Saunders: "They Giants played a really good game, so hats off to us"

by Skii on Jan 26, 2012 9:56 PM MST up reply actions  

so is every other team in the NFL that needs a QB*

Joe Saunders: "They Giants played a really good game, so hats off to us"

by Skii on Jan 26, 2012 9:56 PM MST up reply actions  

If I am Manning

I would be coming here, not trying to be biased. Of the 5 teams I have heard (Wash, Seattle, NYJ, Arizona, Miami) I would come here or go to Miami. But the Cardinals have an established coaching staff, a great young defense, and arguably the best WR in football. We have gone to the SB under the current HC so we know how to get there and we are the more complete team of the bunch.

"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!

by Airwave on Jan 27, 2012 1:29 AM MST up reply actions  

Only downside

Is our line is bad.

"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!

by Airwave on Jan 27, 2012 1:30 AM MST up reply actions  

And we shouldn't just gloss over that...

He’s a highly immobile QB with a bad neck. How well he can be protected will play into his decision.

Also I know that the Jets have a crazy head coach and locker room but I wouldn’t totally dimiss them from this conversation, if they in fact are interested. They certainly seem to have the “just a QB away” type of team.

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by Steamin' Beamin' on Jan 27, 2012 7:49 AM MST up reply actions  

With Manning back there...

we don’t even take 1/4 as many sacks. The guy reads the D like no one else, and gets rid of the ball fast.

by tonyman121 on Jan 27, 2012 10:01 AM MST up reply actions  

If we did get Manning

Getting a #2 WR would become a priority then. Imagine a duo of Fitz and Meachem, or something like that.

Joe Saunders: "They Giants played a really good game, so hats off to us"

by Skii on Jan 27, 2012 10:08 PM MST up reply actions  

Of course we don't take as many sacks

The QB is going to get hammered behind our line whether he gets the ball out or not.

by tw3kr on Jan 28, 2012 5:54 PM MST up reply actions  

The fact remains

That the Colts line was average at best and he did fine for himself.

"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!

by Airwave on Jan 29, 2012 1:46 AM MST up reply actions  

But now he is older and less durable

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by JoeCB1991 on Jan 30, 2012 12:17 PM MST up reply actions  

But the Colts

Had a bad O-line. In fact, they’ve had a bad team for the last 10 years. Manning was what Warner was to us, but now the difference is we actually have a team that can support Manning. We have a WR, RB, potentially elite defense, and amazing Special Teams.

But then there’s the O-line. We’d have to fix that this Off-season.

Joe Saunders: "They Giants played a really good game, so hats off to us"

by Skii on Jan 27, 2012 10:07 PM MST up reply actions  

Skelton > Kolb

Kolb looks slightly better on paper… But Skelton looks much better on the highlight reel IMO.

The slight edge that Kolb holds on paper could of easily turned out a bit different if

1) Early Doucet wouldn’t of tripped the game winning TD away against the Bengals giving Skelton; improved TD:INT ratio, and QB rating.

2) Andre Roberts wouldn’t of bounced a pass that hit him right on the numbers into Dashon Goldson’s hands; lowering his INT by one and increasing his QB rating.

The stats still would of been close, but those two mistakes did impact his stats negatively.

Speaking of stats… Fitz had his best games of the season with Skelton throwing his way, in 8 games with Skelton he had 753 yards, 5 TDs, 94 ypg; theoretically translates to 1506 yards and 10 TDs for the season (would be his highest season yards total). Under Kolb he had 658 yards, 3 TDs, 82 ypg ; theoretically translates to 1316 yards, 6 TDs for the season (tying a season low for TD totals). Fitz just plain looked better when Skelton was throwing his way.

I encourage people to watch highlights from both QBs and compare; Skelton had better pocket presence and awareness, much more fluid delivery, velocity and was better with touch. Skelton is still a project and has consistancy issues, but his ceiling his much higher than Kolbs. If the Cardinals RBs stay health next year, another receiver is aquired (Braylon Edwards or Robert Meachem anyone) and the o-line is shored up I could see Skelton tremendously improving. Kevin Kolb just looks like a backup to me… He also had quite a few mistakes to go along with his production in Philly too; biggest ripoff ever.

by snowflow on Feb 2, 2012 12:15 AM MST reply actions  

Drew Brees...

…had the most passing yards in the league last year. Last time I checked he was sitting at home watching the superbowl. You have to win games.

by theuglytruth on Apr 24, 2012 11:23 AM MDT reply actions  

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