2013 NFL picks against the spread, Week 6: Can the Broncos cover a record line?

Kevin C. Cox

A look at our best guesses at Week 6 games using Vegas' spreads.

Week 6 has already begun and while the Chicago Bears came away with a win on Thursday night, it was the bettors that placed their wages on Eli Manning and the Giants that came away with a win against the spread. That made the start of my week of picks against the Vegas spread go with a zero.

What about the rest of the games this week?

Here are my best guesses and where I would place wages if I actually were a gambler. As for last week, it was bad. I went 5-9. Yuck. Overall, I am 39-36-2, including Thursday night's game.

Bengals (-7) at Bills: With a guy named Thad Lewis starting for Buffalo, what other choice do you have? Pick: Bengals.

Lions (-2.5) at Browns: The trend is not good for Detroit, who are 3-15 against the spread as road favorites. However, with Brandon Weeden again at quarterback, I expect a Lions win, and since the line is less than a field goal, I feel confident to going with Detroit and give away the 2.5.

Raiders at Chiefs (-9): Oakland has some magical power over the Chiefs on the road. KC has lost six straight at home to the Raiders. More importantly, they have only covered one of their last 14 games against Oakland. This spread is too high. I'm taking the points -- Raiders +9.

Panthers at Vikings (-2.5): Can you bet against Adrian Peterson after what happened? Plus, Carolina is just not that good on the road. Vikings -2.5.

Steelers at Jets (-2.5): The Jets have only covered 38 percent of the last 135 times they have been favored at home. That's not a good trend. I'm taking the Steelers plus the points.

Eagles (-1) at Buccaneers: You get the thrilling matchup of Mike Glennon and Nick Foles. I wouldn't be confident in wagering on this game, but the trend shows which way I would go if I had to -- Tampa is 4-16 ATS as a home underdog. Pick; Eagles, -1.

Packers (-2.5) at Ravens: 11 of the last 12 games the Packers have played have been covered by the home team. That's where I'm putting my money -- Ravens +2.5.

Rams at Texans (-7.5): Houston was jackstomped by the 49ers. They will be looking to get the stink of that game off. Pick: Texans -7.5.

Jaguars at Broncos (-27): This record line is just too much for me. It will be a blowout, but the game will be slowed enough to keep it under four TDs. I'm taking the points in this one.

Titans at Seahawks (-13.5): Again, I am staying away from the big spread. I'm taking the Titans to cover.

Saints at Patriots (-2.5): Are the Saints unbeatable? Can they be stopped? I don't think the Pats can. Without Rob Gronkowski, the NE offense is toothless, and the Saints defense will harass Tom Brady. Pick: Saints +2.5.

Cardinals at 49ers (-10.5): Arizona is 4-1 ATS this season and have played four very close games. Their third ranked rush defense will keep San Fran's rushing attack in check. It will be a nail biter. I've got the Cards covering this one.

Redskins at Cowboys (-5.5): While 72 percent of Dallas' games over the last four seasons the underdog covers, after their heartbreaking loss to the Broncos, I expect the Cowboys to come out roaring. Pick: Cowboys -5.5.

Colts (-1.5) at Chargers: The line is small. I like the home team. Chargers +1.5.

You can join my Yahoo! picks group to go up against me and others. Group 49978, password Cardinals

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