NFL picks against the spread, Week 11: Chiefs, Saints a lock to cover

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Our Week 11 picks. Use them at your own risk

After the Indianapolis Colts rallied to a Vegas push (winning by three), we now take our shot at the Vegas spread for the rest of the games on the Week 11 schedule. Week 10 was a successful one, as we went 9-5 against the spread.

Here are my picks and how I would go with my wagers:

Jets at Bills (-1): I like the Jets defense. Plus, it is the first game Buffalo is favored. Trends say the Bills will not cover. Every team is 13-33 against the spread the week after playing the Steelers Take New York.

Ravens at Bears (-3): Even though some think that Josh McCown makes the Bears better, I just can't pick him to win or cover. after all, he was a quarterback for the Cardinals and couldn't find work after that until recently. Chicago doesn't do well when they have two straight home games. They have only covered one of their last 14 such games. I'm taking the points.

Browns at Bengals (-5.5): While it's hard to trust the Browns, they do have a stout defense. Plus, the Bengals without Geno Atkins is just not good. At the same time, in games between the two teams, the favorite has only covered one of the last 13 games. This is going to be a tight game. I'm taking the points and Cleveland.

Redskins at Eagles (-3.5): Philly has not won at home this season. what is more important is that they have not covered at home since 2011, and has not covered 20 of their last 23 home games. I expect a Redskins win outright, so clearly I would take the points and Washington here.

Lions (-2) at Steelers: This is the second time in 12 years that the Steelers are a home underdog. Josh McCown almost brought back the Bears to tie the Lions last week. Ben Roethlisberger is better. I am taking the Steelers outright.

Falcons (-1) at Buccaneers: Tampa lost a second running back for the season, although they did pick up a win. I don't think that they can win two straight, even against the Atlanta defense. I'm taking the Falcons.

Cardinals (-7) at Jaguars: This is a huge spread for Arizona. They haven't been favored that much since 2009...when they were good. They went 10-6 that season. However, with a very good defense and an offense that will face the JAX defense without Paul Posluszny, I don't see any scenario in which they don't cover. I'm giving up the points.

Raiders at Texans (-7): The Texans only lost by three to the Cardinals and their stout defense. They played the Raiders with a guy named Matt McGloin as their quarterback. I can't pick the Raiders if I have never heard of their QB. I have at least seen Case Keenum play.

Chargers (-1) at Dolphins: History says Miami will cover.  Any home team off a loss as a road favorite is 14-2 ATS the next game. But they are not good. I'm taking San Diego.

49ers at Saints (-3): The Saints are CRAZY good at home. They have covered 14 straight at home with Sean Payton coaching. The odds of that happening randomly is 16,383:1. I don't think it is random. Drew Brees is just amazing at home. Their offense is potent. I pick a New Orleans by two touchdowns.

Packers at Giants (-5): Scott Tolzien is going to start for Green Bay. That's all you need to say. Eli Manning has not been an interception machine. Their running backs are getting healthy. How do you not take the Giants, giving up the points?

Vikings at Seahawks (-12): Seattle is too good at home. Minnesota is not that good. Seattle by a lot.

Chiefs at Broncos (-8.5): So Kansas City is undefeated through nine games, but is more than a touchdown underdog? Crazy, especially with their defense and a Peyton Manning with a bad ankle. Undefeated teams after a bye are 13-1 against the spread. They held one of the league's best offenses to only 16 points. I don't expect a KC win, but it will be close. Take the points. It's a lock.

Patriots at Panthers (-2.5): Carolina has won six straight. They are physical defensively. New England is great on Monday night, though, and as an underdog (20-9 ATS). I'm still taking Cam Newton. I like how well they are playing.

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