Seahawks (-5.5) at Falcons: History says that the Falcons will do well, as they are 16-2 ATS when losing by more than a touchdown. However, while Seattle is struggling with its offensive line, Atlanta packs no punch in the pass rush department. They were burned by the Arizona running game a couple of weeks ago. Seattle runs even better. I'm going against history and trends. Pick: Seattle -5.5.
Lions at Bears (-1): This is basically a pick'em game. It is close because Jay Cutler returns. The Lions don't have history on their side. They have failed to cover the last 12 games they have played after scoring 30 points in the previous game. Hard to go against that. Pick: Bears -1. (My straight up pick earlier in the week was Lions straight up, but at that point Cutler had not been cleared to play).
Eagles at Packers (-1): Green Bay opened at -9.5, but it dropped to -1 when Rodgers was lost to a broken collarbone. In Eagles games, the road team has covered 13 of the last 15. With no Rodgers, I expect a straight up Philly win.
Jaguars at Titans (-12): This is too big a line. The Jags are bound to win a game at some point, and history says the every week you pick against Jacksonville means you are playing with fire. Teams losing by more than 30 and then having a bye have covered 14 of the last 18 instances. Winless teams coming off a bye are 28-11 ATS. This is the week to put money there. Take the points and go with the Jags keeping the game within single digits.
Rams at Colts (-9.5): St. Louis' pass rush will come into play. The Colts like playing with fire and really miss Reggie Wayne. I don't like the Rams to win, but their defense will keep it close. Take the Rams and the points.
Raiders at Giants (-7): Nick Foles threw for seven touchdowns against the Raiders. This is Eli Manning. He is better. The Giants will keep the winning streak going. Take the Giants, giving up a touchdown.
Bills at Steelers (-3): After an embarrassing loss to the Pats, this is the Steelers' bounceback game. Plus, the home team has covered 10 of the last 11 Bills games. I like Pittsburgh by at least a touchdown.
Panthers at 49ers (-6): Carolina has won four straight after getting beat up by the Cardinals. The Niners have won five straight and are rolling offensively. The trends say that San Fran wins. They are 18-5-1 ATS under Harbaugh at home. If a team can't beat the Cards on the road, I can't pick them to beat the Niners on the road. San Fran by 14.
Texans at Cardinals (-2.5): Arizona has covered six of their last nine games. They play well at home and they face Case Keenum. While the Texans are desperate, so is Arizona. I'm taking the home team.
Broncos (-7) at Chargers: A road team coming off a bye is 47-14 ATS, so history favors the Broncos. However, this is big game for the Chargers, who need a win to stay in the playoff hunt. San Diego's fantastic pass defense will allow Philip Rivers to keep things close. I'm taking the points.
Cowboys at Saints (-6.5): Dallas is a wacky team ATS. The cover when they are underdogs and don't when they are favored. They have covered 11 of their last 12 games they were more than a three-point underdog. However, the saints have covered 13 straight at home. this game is going to be back and forth, but I expect to come down to the final possession. Take the points.
Dolphins (-2.5) at Buccaneers: While I don't want to touch the Bucs with a 10-foot pole, the mess that Miami is dealing with is too much. They are out two offensive line starters now. I actually have the Bucs winning outright and getting their first win of the year.
More from Revenge of the Birds:
- Arizona Cardinals roster moves, midseason grades, 2014 NFL Draft talk on Revenge of the Bird Radio
- Patrick Peterson Top 12 CB in Yards Allowed
- Larry Fitzgerald talks Carson Palmer, Patrick Peterson, rookie hazing [video]
- Thursday Night Football open thread: Redskins/Vikings
- NFL odds, Week 10: Arizona Cardinals open as 3-point favorite