We enter Week 15 with a 116-80-6 against the Vegas spread on the season. The week kicked off with the Broncos getting beaten by the Chargers. The straight up winner was most surprising, although the 10.5-point spread may have been too much for many bettors to take Denver. We did, though.
So looking ahead at Sunday's and Monday's contests, here are our suggestions when trying to beat Vegas.
Redskins at Falcons (-7): Washington has become a dumpster fire, but Atlanta has been a mess of their own. With little pressure on the quarterback, they will be a good defense for Kirk Cousins to face. However, Atlanta will get the win. I do not believe that they will win handily. Underdogs that lose by over 30 points the previous week beat the spread over 61 percent of the time. That isn't an overwhelming trend, but I don't trust the Falcons enough. I'll take the points here.
Bears at Browns (pick'em): Chicago gets Jay Cutler back against a very stout Cleveland defense. However, with Chicago very much in the playoff and division mix, I see a solid return by Cutler. With no points to beat, I'm all for the Bears here.
Texans at Colts (-5.5): Houston continues to be a disaster, but the Colts continue to struggle. They have a playoff spot locked up, but being at home and against a team that just doesn't know how to win anymore, I expect to see Andrew Luck and company win by 10. Plus, they are 12-0 against the spread after a loss. I'll give up the 5.5.
Eagles (-4.5) at Vikings: Philly doesn't like this situation. Being favored the second week in a row, they are 3-17 against the spread. Plus, Minnesota has had a knack on being in super close games. I don't like the Vikes for the win, but I like another down-to-the-wire game.
49ers (-5.5) at Tampa Bay: even though they beat the Seahawks in Week 14, Seattle has a bad effect on teams the week after, as they go 5-18 ATS in those games. Tampa is playing at home and is a physical team. However, San Fran is getting back into its groove. I just can't bet on Tampa here. 5.5 isn't too much for San Fran to cover.
Bills (-2) at Jaguars: The Jags have won three straight and four of five. Plus, when the Bills play, the home team is 13-1 ATS. Sounds like another week I'm betting on the Jags. I actually like them straight up.
Chiefs (-4.5) at Raiders: KC is not going to ruin its playoff situation. It will take care of business. It would be against their trend of losing to the spread against division foes. They are 1-12 against the spread in AFC West games. I am going against that trend.
Jets at Panthers (-11): This is the second highest spread the Panthers have ever been given. As hot as they have been, the New York defense will make things tough. Carolina depends on their running game to be successful and the last time they faced a top five rush defense was against the Cardinals, who beat them up. I don't see the Jets winning, but they will certainly make things tough on the Panthers. Take the points. 11 is just too much to give up.
Cardinals (-2.5) at Titans: Arizona is playing in playoff-like circumstances. At 8-5, they almost have to win out to even make the playoffs. They are ready for this game. They need to show they can win on the road. They will win by at least three.
Saints (-6) at Rams: After two straight very impressive wins over the Colts and Bears, the Rams got drubbed by the Niners and Cardinals. Going home will help, but the Saints have too much offensive firepower. Give up the points and take the Saints, even though they are 6-14 ATS as road favorites under Sean Payton. Their defense will give Kellen Clemens fits.
Bengals (-2.5) at Steelers: The Bengals are favored in Pittsburgh for the first time sine 1989. In Cincy games, the road team is 2-15 against the spread. This is why I like the Steelers, who are scrapping to stay alive for the playoffs. They will bounce back from that tough loss to the Dolphins, when they almost won a game on a crazy play.
Ravens at Lions (-6): The Ravens have won three straight and won last week on an amazing last minute comeback. The Lions really have defensive issues and they are just hard to trust. So six points? I'm taking them. Baltimore will make this game close on Monday night.