NFL picks against the spread, Week 14: Broncos, Saints are sure bets.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Our best guess for the games in Week 14 against the Vegas spread.

The playoff race is in full force in the NFL and Week 14 brings some big matchups. Our against the Vegas spread picks in Week 13 were successful -- we went 11-3-1, which followed an 11-3 week as well.

Here is where I would put my money if I were to place a wager.

Colts at Bengals (-6.5): Indy has been in a tailspin and the road team in a Bengals game has only covered in 2 of 14 games. I still like the Colts here because they are due for a bounceback game. I'm taking the points.

Falcons at Packers (-3): With no Aaron Rodgers, despite the struggles of Matt Ryan and the Falcons, I can't pick Matt Flynn to lead the Packers to a win over Atlanta. I'm going with the Falcons.

Browns at Patriots (-10): New England is 33-13 against the spread against teams that have lost two straight. Cleveland doesn't have a chump defense under Ray Horton. Remember, it was the Cardinals that beat New England at home in 2012. Still, New England is going to roll.

Raiders at Jets (-2.5): Oakland's defense is playing very well and Matt McGloin has been some kind of surprise. Geno Smith returns as starter for the Jets. I like New York because of being at home.

Lions at Eagles (-2.5): Philly was favored last week against the Cardinals and are again for the second week in a row. They are 2-17 ATS in that second game favored in a row and have only covered four of their last 25 home games. They played to a push last week with some help from the refs late. With that passing attack of the Lions, it could get ugly. I'm taking the points, but think Detroit wins outright.

Dolphins at Steelers (-3): Interesting stat -- the week after playing the Jets, Miami has lost 13 straight against the spread. I expect that trend to continue as the Steeler are hanging on to dear life to faint playoff chances.

Bills at Bucs (-3): Tampa was on fire until getting walloped by Cam Newton and the Panthers. The Bills? Well, they are the Bills. Tampa recovers for the win against the spread.

Chiefs (-3) at Redskins: KC has lost two straight on the road. That does not bode well for the Skins. Road teams playing their third straight road game after having lost the first two do well -- 20-6-1 against the spread. KC gets that 10th win on Sunday.

Vikings at Ravens (-6.5): Minnesota keeps going into overtime. They like tight games. I like a close one, too. I'm taking the points.

Titans at Broncos (-12): Do you expect anything else but a Denver rout? Denver wins by a bunch. This is a sure things.

Rams at Cardinals (-6.5): Arizona is great at home and has not lost against the spread in many weeks. The Rams were plowing through teams until they hit the 49ers. That Arizona defense will keep St. Louis from doing much. I'm going with the favorite here to win by 10.

Chargers (-3) at Giants: The Giants are 18-3 on the road ATS after winning on the road. The Chargers are just inconsistent enough to not trust them. I'm taking the points.

Seahawks at 49ers (-2.5): This is one of the two biggest games of the week. It is the first time all season that Seattle is not favored. Under Pete Carroll, they are 15-3 against the spread when they are the underdog. They seem unstoppable. I'm going with the Seahawks.

Panthers at Saints (-3): New Orleans is unstoppable at home. They have not lost against the spread there under Sean Payton in their last 15 games and they are 16-4 under Sean Payton after a loss. Despite the eight straight wins by the Panthers, they meet their match and get put in their place. New Orleans by 14. This is my lock of the week.

Cowboys at Bears (-1): Dallas is clinging to an NFC East lead. Despite being on the road, I like how Tony Romo has been playing. I'm going with Dallas.

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