Which NFC West team will win the 2013 NFL draft?
The SF 49ers have 14 picks, how can anyone compete with that?
Easy, four of those picks are 7th round selections. Having two 2nd round, 3rd round and 4th round picks are very powerful, but lets think of this an another way. The 49ers get to chose 5 of the top 100 players in the NFL Draft. #31, 34, 61 74, and 93.
So do the Dolphins Vikings Rams and Bengals and these teams are selecting before the 49ers and therefore should draft players that are more likely to succeed in the NFL.
Lets look at some sample mock drafts to illustrate the point.
Here are the Mock Draft computer projections from Huddle Report.
49ers. # 31 DeAndre Hopkins, #34 John Jenkins, #61 Brandon Jenkins, #74 Jordan Reed, # 93 Shamarko Thomas, #128 Brian Schwenke, #131Dwayne Graz, #157 Earl Wolf, #164 Landry Jones
Dolphins #12 Keenan Allen, #42 Sylvester Williams, #54 Gavin Escobar #77 Darius Slay, #82 Montee Ball, #146 Denard Robinson, #166 Quanterus Smith
Vikings #23 Tavon Austin, #25 Johnathan Hankins, #52 Terron Armstead, #83 Alvin Bailey, #103 Blidi Wren-Wilson
Bengals # 21 Sam Montgomery, #37 D J Fluker, # 53 Eddie Lacy, #84 Treavardo Williams, #118 Khaled Holmes
Rams #16 Kenny Vacardo, #22 Tyler Effert #46 Terrance Williams #78 Sean Porter #113 Chris Faulk #149 Everett Dawkins
Cardinals #7 Ezekiel Ansah #38 Kevin Minter, #69 E J Manuel, #103 Marcus Lattimore, #140 Sanders Commings
The 49 draft yields four back ups and four projects. The Vikings, Rams, Bengals, Dolphins and Cards come away from the draft with five starters. Obviously the 49ers are have a stronger line-up before the draft. Not many of the seven 49er picks in the 5th, 6th and 7th round will make the team.
The Talent in the draft pool is divided in groups of 32 for the sake of drafting but picks lose value drastically within the same round. Nothing makes this quite as clear as a trade value chart. The top pick of round one is worth 3,000. The Cardinal pick at #7 is worth 1,500 pts. The 31st pick is worth 600, the 128th pick is worth 44.
The DRAFTMETIRCS site suggests the “real” grouping of the 7 rounds of the NFL Draft are best thought of in terms of the power of the draft to impact a team, i.e., how likely a player drafted will be an impact player. Their grouping is Round 1 picks 1-13; Round 2 picks14-40; Round 3 picks 41-66; Round 4 picks 67-86; Round 5 picks 87-149; Round 6 picks 150-189; Round 7 picks 190 and above. Undrafted players have a higher success rate of making an impact, if they make the club, than players from round 5, 6 and 7.
In the context of the DRAFTMETICS chart, the 49ers have two 2nd round picks, one 3rd round, one 4th round, three 5th round picks, two 6th round picks and four 7th round picks.
The 49ers will make every effort to trade up with less concern for “winning” the trade, or they might try to roll some of the picks to next years draft. Teams with multiple draft needs would have to consider the option. If the 49ers offered the 31st, 34th and 93rd picks, i.e., a first a second, third and a fourth round pick to Buffalo for their #8 pick, for example, that might work for both teams. Especially if Buffalo is planning to draft Geno Smith. If Buffalo doesn’t draft Smith there is a good chance they can get him at the 31st pick. The #8 pick 1,800 points; 31st 600pts, 34th 560pts 93rd 128pts 131st 42pts
The Rams will do very well in this draft because they have two first round picks and this is a draft that is strong in the areas that the Rams have needs.The mock draft listed above allows the Rams to get the top Safety and top Other Mock Drafts for the Rams offer similarly strong choices, Chance Warmack W R Tavon, Arthur Brown, Montee Ball, Bacari Rambo (NFL Draft Blitz) Kenny Vacarro, D J Fluker, Kwann Short, Joseph Randle (Walter Football) Kenny Vacarro, Jonathan Cooper and Khassem Greene, Marcus Lattimore (Drafttek) Kenny Vacarro, Tavon Austin, Khassen Greene, Justin Pugh (NFL Draft Ace)
The 49ers and Seahawks have easily won the free agent offseason. the Rams improved dramatically over the course of last season and had a strong in-division won loss record and will benefit most from the draft.
How can the Arizona Cardinals attempt to compete with the depth of talent that will be coming into the NFC West division in 2013?
Draft for this year. Focus on players who are likely to impact the team this years as starters rather than players with big upsides that will need a season to develop.
The top ten biggest risks in the 2013 draft as listed by the Pro Football Draft Network site offers many who have been projected to the Cardinals as draft picks.
Geno Smith, #1, Dion Jordan #2, Mike Glennon #3, Johnathan Hankins #4, Barkevious Mingo #5, Alec Ogletree #6, Margus Hunt #7, Ezedkiel Ansah #8 John Jenkins #9 and Dion Sims #10. We can’t afford to swing and miss.
Don’t waste picks on players with significant injury history.
NFL players can recover but the college players get better by playing football. Lattimore could be a steal in the draft. So what. Why risk when we have a #7 pick. Jarvis Jones was cleared to play. Good, let him play, just don’t draft him.
Fix the #$%& Offensive LIne. We need to run the ball, you need Guards to do that. Many teams have made it to the Super Bowl with average Tackles and All-Pro Guards because they can run the ball. Our RB’s get injured. Of course, they have to do all the work, no one can open a hole for them. Our Tackles get beaten on the pass rushing downs because we are passing all the time because we can’t run the ball.
We need a right Guard and a better Center to succeed running the ball.
I don’t know the answer to the Quarterback question. The draft is the best way to build a team, but we would be wasting the #7 pick in the draft if we spent it on the 40th or 50th best player. The Cardinals won 7 of 8 with Skelton in 2011 and went 4 and 0 with Kolb in 2012. Bruce Arians has said he is ok with Stanton. I am ok with that, but it might be smoke. I have to wonder if Arians brought a 74 year old quarterback coach, Tom Moore on board to teach Stanton or to wait till 2014?
Not taking a QB in the first four rounds is a good option for adding impact starters to the 2013 Arizona Cardinals. Trading down is pleasant option to consider, however, who could we trade with? I see the Cincinnati Bengals as one potential partner. We would trade the 7th pick for the 21st and 53rd. The Bengals are close enough to the playoffs that they might be willing to give up two picks to select one special player. With the 21st pick, the Cardinals get to chose before the Rams second 1st round pick. so if the Rams pick Vaccaro with number 16 we might get Cooper with the 21st.
The Minnesota Vikings might be willing to trade up as well they have extra picks but the 23rd pick is much less valuable because the Rams pick 16th and 22nd and the Rams are competing with us for similar players in this draft. If you can see another potential trading partner, good for you. Trades are possible, but 15 minutes plenty of time to pick, but it is a very short amount of time to negotiate.
Lets say we don’t draft a QB. Compare these drafts.
Quarterback in the first round.
#7 Geno Smith QB, #38 Damontre Moore DE, #69 Justin Pugh OG #103 Tony Jefferson S #140 Jawan Jamison RB
#7 Matt Barkley QB , #38 Alex Okafor OLB, #69 Kyle Long OT #103 Justin Pugh OG #140 Kiko Alonso ILB
Quarterback in the second round.
#7 Ezekiel Ansah OLB, #38 Mike Glennon QB, #69 David Bakhtiari, OG #103 Tony Jefferson S #140 Jawan Jamison RB
Quarterback in the third round.
Cardinals #7 Ezekiel Ansah OLB #38 Kevin Minter ILB, #69 E J Manuel, #103 Marcus Lattimore, #140 Sanders Commings
Quarterback in the sixth round. (Matt Scott QB )
#7 Chance Warmack OG, # 38 Kevin Minter ILB, #69 Travis Kelce TE #103 Phillip Thomas S #140 Zeke Motta S
#7 Kenny Vaccaro S, #38 Larry Warford, #69 Barrett Jones C, #103 Jon Bostic ILB #140 LeVon Bell RB
#7 Chance Warmack OG, # 38 Eric Reid S #69 Jamie Collins OLB #103 Joseph Randle RB #140 Khaled Holmes C
While we are dreaming, lets pretend we get to trade down.
#21 Jonathan Cooper OG, #38 Eddie Lacy RB, #53 Zack Ertz TE #69 Tryann Mathieu CB #103 Bacarro Rambo S #140 OLB Cornelius Washington