2013 NFL picks against the spread: Take good teams at home to cover

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Week 1 picks against the spread

After a poor showing of taking Baltimore in the first game of the year, here are my Week 1 picks against the spread.

Patriots (-9.5) at Bills: Buffalo is a disaster and I have learned that it is smart not to bet against Tom Brady...until he is in the Super Bowl. Pick: Pats, -9.5.

Bengalas at Bears (-3.0): Lots of people are on the Bengals bandwagon. I'm not yet. I like the home team in the season opener. Pick, Bears, -3.0.

Dolphins at Browns (pick'em): With no betting line, I'm taking the home team. Pick: Browns.

Vikings at Lions (-5.0): Remember how the Lions lost to the Cardinals? I do. That's why I don't trust them. Take the points, Vikings, +5.0.

Raiders at Colts (-9.5): The Raiders are a mess. Andrew Luck is running the offense he ran at Stanford. Big win for the Colts. You can give up the 9.5 points.

Falcons at Saints (-3.0): New Orleans has no defense for Matt Ryan and company, but a season opener in the Superdome? Can't take that bet. Pick: Saints, -3.0.

Buccaneers (-3.5) at Jets: The Jets are a mess. Geno Smith is going to be bad this year. Not saying Tampa is that great. They are just going to win by more than a field goal. Pick: Bucs, -3.5.

Titans at Steelers (-7.0): Jake Locker has been good in the preseason. Pittsburgh has questions. Tennessee doesn't win, but keeps it close. Pick: Titans, +7.0.

Seahawks (-3.5) at Panthers: Russell Wilson or Cam Newton? Take Russ. Pick: Seahawks, -3.5.

Chiefs (-4) at Jaguars: Can you ever wager on Jacksonville? I don't. Pick: Chiefs, -4.0.

Cardinals at Rams (-4.5): This is a tough one. Both teams seem pretty even. I'm going homer here. Take the points -- Cards, +4.5.

Packers at 49ers (-4.5): Both are good teams. One is at home to start the season. That's how you go -- Niners, -4.5.

Giants at Cowboys (-4.5): The Giants don't like to start the season strongly. Tony Romo is determined to be better. Two solid teams. Of course I go with the home team. Dallas, -4.5.

I'll give you my Monday night picks tomorrow morning. Join my ATS picks Yahoo! group to show me you are better than I am. Group 49978, Password: Cardinals

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