Considering the Arizona Cardinals put up 30 points on the Dallas Cowboys and rolled up almost 300 yards of total offense, it seems odd to talk about a bad performance, but that's exactly what the offense had yesterday. The offense, previously ranked 5th in the league, were held exactly 100 yards less than their previous average and were responsible for just 17 points. The offense was ultimately a tale of two halves considering that they had twice as many offensive penalties (4) as first downs (2) in the first two quarters and they committed two turnovers. The second half was a completely different unit though as they scored on each of their first three possessions and their fourth and final possession was more about running time off the clock. They were also much more successful on third down conversions in the second half (5 of 7) after being utterly inept (0 for 5) in the first half. The offense can't be prolific each and every week though and they picked the right week to struggle. The defense and special teams picked up the the slack and the offense did just enough to ensure a win.

Quarterback: Kurt Warner wasn't spectacular on Sunday but when the Cardinals needed him to take over the game, he did just that. During the first half, he completed just seven passes on eleven attempts for 59 yards and he added two turnovers. His fumble was an awkward play in which the shotgun snap was to his left but he knocked it down and actually gained control of the ball. While he was being tackled though, he tried to hand the ball to Edge and they both lost the ball. His pick was a deep ball into double coverage that Breaston couldn't bring down. Warner returned in the second half though and completed 15 of 19 passes for 177 yards, no turnover and two touchdowns. During one stretch that lasted most of the third and fourth quarter he completed 14 of 15 passes with his only incompletion coming on Fitz's touchdown catch that was overturned. Just for the record, this was Warner's third game of the season with a QB rating over 100 and fifth consecutive game with multiple touchdowns. It's also worth mentioning that Warner did all of this despite pretty tremendous pressure by the Cowboys. They ended the game with just one sack but Warner was knocked down on over half of his pass attempts. Grade: B+

I'm not sure where to squeeze this in, so I'll break out the shoe-horn and put it in here. I felt like the Cowboys' game plan to blitz up the middle was pretty flawed. I understand and partly agree with the 'blitz Warner and he'll turn the ball over,' mantra, but I think it's more complicated than that. It seems to me that Warner (and this offensive line for that matter) is susceptible to blitzes from the edges, but if Warner can see a blitz coming he's very capable of unloading the ball before he gets sacked. It's the edge rushers who swipe at the ball and cause fumbles that plague Warner. Agree or I have I just had too much Kool-Aid in the past 24 hours? 

Running Backs: Another week has gone by and another sub-par rushing performance from everyone. The running game totaled just 50 yards on 19 carries (2.6 avg), didn't have a rush over 9 yards and had two plays for negative yards (not counting Warner's kneel at the end of the 1st half). Edge finished with just 29 yards on nine carries (3.2 avg) and Tim Hightower wasn't much better on the ground (7 for 20 - 2.9 avg). It was somewhat interesting that Hightower got the majority of carries in the second half (7 vs. 3) but his yardage was limited considering that two of his carries came on 3rd-and-1 situations and another two carries came on the final drive when the Cowboys were loading the box. The running backs biggest contribution against the Cowboys came in the passing game though as they combined for six receptions for 53 yards. Tim Hightower's 17 yard reception on 3rd-and-17 was quite possibly the play that swung momentum in the Cardinals favor. He took a short pass (that was tipped at the line) and raced down the sidelines, evading a couple of tacklers and diving for the first down. JJ Arrington also took a short dump off pass and juked Zach Thomas en route to a 10 yard pass and a first down. Grade: B-

Wide Recievers: It's almost unbelievable to think that just a couple of months ago we had no idea who or what we had behind the dynamic duo of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. Breaston has made a name for himself in the past three weeks totaling 301 yards on 24 receptions and leading the team (or tying for the team lead) in yards each week. He had another great week (8 for 102 and a TD) and he is impressive every time he gets the ball in his hands as he fights for every single yard. Larry Fitzgerald also had a great game considering all of the attention that the Cowboys were giving him. He made a spectacular catch on a 39 yard bomb when he went up and over Anthony Henry to snag the ball and he showed why Warner has such faith in him when he made another good leaping grab over Pacman Jones for a touchdown. Since the Cardinals didn't air out the passing game as much as they had in previous weeks, Early Doucet (1 for 3 yds) and Jerheme Urban (1 for 1 yd) didn't have big roles this week. The tight ends were again a non-factor as Leonard Pope caught two balls for 12 yards. Grade: A+

Offensive Line: I went back and forth several times on how I thought the offensive line played. On one hand, the Cowboys didn't register a sack until the Cardinals last offensive play but they also didn't muster anything worthwhile in the running game and Warner was knocked down almost 20 times. The more I think about it, I think the offensive line was the reason the offense struggled and that Kurt Warner had a good game in spite of them. One of the offensive line's biggest problems were penalties as they combined for five penalties ranging from holding, false start (twice), illegal procedure and ineligble downfield. I'm not sure what, if anything, can be done to improve the play along the offensive line but the fate of this offense as a whole could rest at the feet of these front five guys. Grade: C

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

I may be getting on the offensive line too hard but it maddening to see the running game continue be virtually non-existant. As for the rest of the offense, it's promising to see the development of young guys like Tim Hightower and Steve Breaston, especially considering their contributions in such a big game. Thoughts? Agree/Disagree with grades?

The Arizona Cardinals has been one of the league's best units in 2008 and they're a big reason why this team is above .500 and aspiring for an NFC West crown. Overall the offense is ranked 5th in both yards per game (376.8) and points per game (29.4). The Cowboys defense was supposed to be dominant this year with them entering their second season under defensive-guru, Wade Phillips. A combination of injuries and ineffectiveness though has led to the defense being ranked just 14th in yards per game (305.2) and 16th in points per game (22.2).

Continue reading this post »

For the first time this season the Arizona Cardinals had JJ Arrington active against the Bills and while his snaps were limited, he did make a couple of decent plays. Tim Castille was the active-roster casualty and Coach Whisenhunt said that the move was made primarily to keep Steve Breaston from having to return kicks while he filled in for the injured Anquan Boldin. While it's possible that both Arrington and Castille could be active on game days, it would be unlikely because there's not much reason to have five runningbacks/fullbacks for a given game. So who is the better option?

The Case for Tim Castille: Castille's a versatile player who can play fullback or running back and the coaching staff even likes to split him out wide in spread formations. He's a tough runner who could be used in short yardage or goal line situations, if Hightower were to go down, and he's a capable reciever out of the backfield. Castille, a former college running back, isn't the pure fullback that Terrelle Smith is but his blocking has improved and there was some thought during training camp that Castille would win the starting job. Castille also contributes on coverage units where he's logged three tackles in four games. Overall, Castille is what you're looking for in a backup player because he can play multiple positions and has a diverse skill set.

The Case Against Castille: While Castille is capable of doing many things well, he's doesn't do any one thing particulary great. If the Cardinals are looking for a blocker, Terrelle Smith is a better option. If they're looking for a guy to convert around the goal line or in short yardage situations, Hightower is the better option. If they're looking for a reciever out of the backfield, Hightower and Edge are better options. Another thing working against Castille is that the Cardinals don't use a fullback very much outside of goal line situations. So while Castille is versatile, he doesn't really excel at any one thing.

The Case for JJ Arrington: Arrington's been a big disapointment since he was drafted four years ago, there's no denying that. But he still brings something to the table that no other running back on the roster has on their resume: speed. His ability to run through contact has always been questioned but he looked much better in the preseason when he broke multiple long runs and scored a couple of touchdowns. He's also a legit threat out of the backfield and he actually led the running backs in receptions last year with 29. Arrington's also the team's best kick returner, although you wouldn't have been able to tell by last week's performance, and having him back there also allows Steve Breaston to focus on punt returns and receiving.

The Case Against JJ Arrington: If you read the paragraph above, you might be able to guess what works against JJ, he's pretty much a one-trick-pony. He's got outstanding, game changing speed but that's about the only area that he's an upgrade over anyone on the roster. He's also weak runner and he's got the tendency to dance too much in the backfield instead of finding a hole cutting up field. I know there's also a certain segment of Cardinals fans that have already given up on Arrington ever being a legit NFL player, much less a legit running back, and they're just counting down the days until his contract expires at the end of the season.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

My Take: It's possible that I've played too much Madden over the years, but I'm a guy who's loves speed. Truly game breaking speed can change the outcome of a game in the blink of an eye and that's what JJ Arrington possesses. I really like Castille's versatility but he doesn't upgrade any area of the roster other than depth. Depth is very important on a roster, so I'm not discounting his value, but if we're talking about one game, I'd rather have JJ. He's the best kick returner and he adds something to the backfield that Edge and Hightower can't. 

Thoughts? Agree/Disagree? Who would you rather see active? Did Arrington look like an improved player on Sunday or were his third down conversions just fluke plays?

After a feeble attempt to break down the Arizona Cardinals running game a couple of weeks ago, it became pretty apparent that one week's worth of stats wouldn't tell much of a story. That naturally led to looking at the cummulative season stats on both Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower. The running game as a whole has has been a mixed bag of results so far, when compared to years past. The good news is that they've been surprisingly effective around the goal line with eight touchdowns on the ground through five games, which is only one short of last year's total. The not-so-good news is that even though they're averaging more yards per game (94.2 yards per game in '08 to 90.0 ypg in '07), they're averaging less yards per carry (3.3 ypc in '08 to 3.6 in '07). Granted the lower yards per carry could be some what contributal to more goal line carries or the number could also be hampered by seven quarterback kneel downs through five games. With all that being said, here's how Edge and Hightower have fared through five games.

Continue reading this post »

The Arizona Cardinals came back home and moved north of .500 with a big win over the previously undefeated Buffalo Bills on Sunday. The offense and defense both looked impressive as they jumped on the Bills early and didn't throttle back until the game was well out of hand. The Cardinals passed a big test and remained perfect at home in 2008.

Kurt Warner: Warner worked the short passing game to perfection in front of the home crowd and even though he didn't have a completion over 20 yards, he was amazingly efficient. He completed passes at a 78.6% clip and notched his second game of the season with a QB rating over 100. It was also his third game of the season in which he didn't turn the ball over (all three games resulted in Cardinals' 
wins). He survived a rough hit in the second quarter that left his chin bloodied and even scampered for 11 yards on a drive right before halftime to avoid the rush and pick up a first down. He also completed at least one pass to nine different receivers and overall, it's hard to ask too much more of your quarterback. Grade: A+

Running Backs: For the first time this season the Cardinals had three running backs active and they each got some work in, combining for 113 rushing yards and 54 receiving yards. Edgerrin James was the workhorse with 21 carries but all of his work only amounted to 57 yards (2.7 ypc), although he did add another touchdown. Tim Hightower continues to impress as a rookie with 37 yards on seven carries (5.3 ypc) and he added two touchdowns, giving him five through his first five games. His best run came on nice 17 yard burst through left side of the offensive line on a 3rd and one. I'll continue to say that he may lack some top end speed but he's got the quickness to hit a hole that Edge lacks at times. JJ Arrington got his first action of the season and for the most part played pretty well. He wasn't spectacular but he did have a good series in the third quarter where he converted a 3rd and 13 with a 13 yard reception and a 3rd and nine with a 14 yard draw play. I'm not really a JJ fan but I'm not sure that Hightower or Edge could have made those two plays. As for the fullbacks, Tim Castille was inactive but Terrelle Smith had several critical blocks, especailly around the goal line. Overall, the running game took quantity over quality with 123 yards on 34 carries (3.6 ypc) but we'll take what we can get. Grade: B-

Wide Receivers: We were wondering who would pick up Anquan Boldin's slack, but I don't think anyone expected the answer to be everyone. Nine different players caught passes and eight of them caught multiple passes. It was pretty clear that the Bills wanted to limit the big play and control Fitzgerald so Warner took exacty what he was given. He spread the ball all over the field and Breaston and Fitz ended up tieing for the team lead with seven receptions. Early Doucet, making his first appearance of the season, had six catches for 42 yards. Ben Patrick and Leonard Pope only combined for 15 yards on 3 receptions but they were better contributors in the running game. The receivers didn't break any big gainers but they were reliable and consistent throughout the entire game. Grade: A-

Offensive Line: The offensive line was fabulous in the passing game but they were just about average in the running game. The line didn't allow a sack for the first time this season and they didn't even allow very many hits on Warner. In the running game though they weren't as good, considering that the offense averaged just 3.6 yards per carry but the average was dragged down by the fourth quarter numbers when they ran 13 times for just 29 yards (2.2 ypc) You'd like the offense to be able to grind out yards to end a game but this offensive line isn't much of a mauling group. For the record though, they did average 4.5 yards per carry for the first three quarters and the Bills knew the Cardinals would be running in the fourth to milk the clock. Grade: B

-------------------------------------

Thoughts? Agree/Disagree on the grades? How much confidence do you have in the running game?

Since we're at the quarter pole of the NFL season, what better time to project the Arizona Cardinals stats over the course of a full season? Obviously some of the offensive numbers are inflated after Sunday's second half shootout, but there's no way to work around an entire game and who's the say we won't be involved in several shoot outs this season. You can check these against our community projections and see if we're on track or already looking pretty bad.

Check out all the stats, after the jump.....

Continue reading this post »

Last week we charted the Arizona Cardinals running game and I had planned to have cumulative totals for the running game this week, but since the running game was virtually non-existant we'll swith gears. I may still post the cumulative totals tomorrow, but for now I was more interested in when and where Warner was throwing the ball on Sunday. Warner's mistakes will (and should) overshadow the gaudy numbers that he was able to put up, but it's still pretty interesting to see where he went with the ball and the success of the receivers. Here is Warner's final line from Sunday's game:

Check out the complete breakdown after the jump.....

Continue reading this post »

Youth is hot commodity in today's NFL, especially at the quarterback position so it's not everyday you see two quarterbacks with as many years between them as Arizona Cardinals' Kurt Warner and the Jets' Brett Favre. With 75 years of age and 28 seasons in the NFL between them, it's fair to say that Warner and Favre have seen it all. Both quarterbacks have been to two Super Bowls, winning one of them and they're both with their third team. They've both been the league MVP multiple times (Favre with 3, Warner with 2) and have combined for 12 Pro Bowls. They've combined for over 87,000 yards and 606 touchdowns over the course of their careers and both are still putting up really good numbers.

While Warner and Favre took very different paths to NFL stardom, they ultimately become very similar 'gun-slinger' quarterbacks. One thing that makes Warner and Favre even more similar is how much their current day teams depend on them. The Cardinals and Jets aren't going to win many games running the football or playing "lights out" defense.

It will be interesting to see how each defense plans to attack their opposing quarterback considering that the game could very well come down to which quarterback has the better game.

With that in mind, here a breakdown of Warner vs. Favre:

Continue reading this post »

We haven't talked much about Football Outsiders and their stats here at ROTB yet, but they do great work and with three weeks of football in the books, I figured we'd take our first weekly look at their stats. My goal is to eventually present not only the Cardinals' stats but also their opponent for that week. It'll give us another way to, not only, evaluate our own team and key players but preview the upcoming game.

First, let me introduce Football Outsiders again. I gave a quick introduction when I interviewed their president Aaron Schatz, but their work isn't easily explained and frankly unless your a bit of a football nerd (like myself) you might not be interested at all. The simplest explanation of their mission is to provide an advanced statistical analysis to the game of football. If anyone is familiar with saber metrics and the other advanced statistics that baseball nerds compile, then you'll have some understanding what Aaron Schatz is trying to accomplish.

For a quick explanation of what we'll be looking at this season, here's a look at the methods to their madness (click on this link to read the full explanation):

DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: five yards on 3rd-and-4 are worth more than five yards on 1st-and-10 and much more than five yards on 3rd-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative.

Digging a bit deeper into DVOA:

The majority of the ratings featured on FootballOutsiders.com are based on DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. DVOA breaks down every single play of the NFL season to see how much success offensive players achieved in each specific situation compared to the league average in that situation, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.

The NFL determines the best players by adding up all their yards no matter what situations they came in or how many plays it took to get them. Now why would they do that? Football has one objective-to get to the end zone-and two ways to achieve that, by gaining yards and getting first downs. These two goals need to be balanced to determine a player's value or a team's performance. All the yards in the world aren't useful if they all come in eight-yard chunks on third-and-10.

DVOA does a better job of distributing credit for scoring points and winning games. It uses a value based on both total yards and yards towards a first down, based on work done by Pete Palmer, Bob Carroll, and John Thorn in their seminal book, The Hidden Game of Football. On first down, a play is considered a success if it gains 45 percent of needed yards; on second down, a play needs to gain 60 percent of needed yards; on third or fourth down, only gaining a new first down is considered success.

That's probably enough introduction for one week so let's take a look at the numbers. Check ahead after the jump....

Continue reading this post »

Sunday's loss to the Redskins was a day of missed or blown opportunities for the Arizona Cardinals. Granted it's easy to look back at any number of plays that could have changed the outcome of a one score game, but for the sake of argument, here's the plays that stood out in my mind:

Play 1: 1st Quarter (3:56) - 4th and 1 at WAS 41

This was the Cardinals first drive of the game after watching the Skins drive down and put seven on the board in their first drive. The Cards decide to go for it and Warner pulls off a play action pass hitting Ben Patrick for what would seem to be a 41 yard touchdown. There's a flag though and it's on the Cardinals. A delay of game nullifies the touchdown and pushes the offense back five yards. Facing a fourth-and-six, they decide to punt and don't end up putting points on the board until there's just under three minutes to go in the half and down ten points. Kurt Warner was animated on the sidelines for several minutes. He and Whisenhunt both clearly stated yesterday that they were closely watching the play clock and that there was a second on the clock when the ball was snapped. Both said that they knew they had timeouts and were more than willing to burn one to avoid the penalty.

Play 2: 2nd Quarter (13:16) - 3rd and 6 at ARI 30

I didn't think much of this play at the time but after watching some of the game for a second time, I was surprised at how close this was to a huge play. The Redskins have the ball after Edgerrin James' fumble and seem to be playing pretty conservatively considering that they're already in field goal range. They run a short slant route and Campbell throws to Santana Moss. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie reaches around though to knock the ball away and Adrian Wilson, who's streaking towards the play, actually has the ball bounce off his right hand. It would have been an amazing reaction for him to catch the deflection but if he could have pulled it off, there was nothing between him and paydirt. In the end though the ball fell harmlessly to the ground and the Redskins kicked a field goal to pull out to a ten to nothing lead.

Check out the second half "what ifs" after the jump....

Continue reading this post »