Time to make my selections for the Week 7 games in the NFL against the Vegas spread. Last week was a pedestrian 8-7. With the Seattle's cover on Thursday, I need to get back on the right track.
Here are my picks for Week 7.
Buccaneers at Falcons (-7): Despite being bad, the Falcons still should be able to handle the Bucs with no problem. The Cardinals got a win over them and it was on the road. The important trend? The Falcons are 21-5 against the spread after a straight up loss. Playing at home will be a huge lift. Falcons -7.
Bengals at Lions (-2.5): With Calvin Johnson at something less than 100 percent and the Bengals able to play some tough defense, I like Cincy in this one. There is a Vegas trend as well. After the Lions score 30 or more points, the next week they have lost 11 straight to the spread.
Bills at Dolphins (-8): I don't love the big spread, but if Matt Flynn is starting after being with the team a week, you can''t like the Bills' chances. Miami -8, even though history against the spread is bad -- 1-11 over their last 12 home games in which they are favored by at least a touchdown.
Patriots (-3.5) at Jets: It is hard to know what the Jets are. however, the pats have covered 12 of the last 14 games they visit the Jets. Tom Brady finds a way. Pats -3.5.
Cowboys at Eagles (-3): This standard spread is understandable. Both teams have looked sometimes great and sometime like a train wreck. Tony Romo showed he could hang with Peyton Manning. Nick Foles is no Peyton Manning. Plus, Philly has lost 10 straight home games against the spread. Cowboys +3.
Bears at Redskins (pick'em): Well, Chicago's defense has been quite the turnover maker. This one being a straight winner pick, I go with the Bears because I trust what they have done all tear more than I do the Skins.
Rams at Panthers (-6): This is a big line, but Carolina is very tough at home. While Sam Bradford is playing well, I don't trust the Rams to cover. Panthers -6.
Chargers (-7.5) at Jaguars: The Jags got an ATS win, but now there is a reasonable spread. The Chargers will win by two scores, give up the points and take Philip Rivers and company.
Titans at 49ers (-4): Honestly i don't get why the spread is so close here. The Niners should take this game going away. Give up the four and go San Fran.
Browns at Packers (-10): Big spread, but Green Bay has a couple of trends to follow. The home team has covered 12 of 13 Green Bay games. The Packers are also 16-0 against the spread after they lose ATS. Two trends like that means Packers roll, even with the injuries. Packers -10.
Texans at Chiefs (-6): With Case Keenum starting against the very good KC defense, I can't believe the spread isn't more. You are crazy to not go with the Chiefs.
Ravens at Steelers (-1.5): Pittsburgh seems to have come around. I like them at home.
Broncos (-6.5) at Colts: Indy has beaten the 49ers and the Seahawks straight up this season. At home against a Denver defense that gave up 48 to the Cowboys? Yes, Von Miller returns, but Denver has O-line issues. This is my big upset pick. Colts win straight up.
Vikings at Giants (-3.5): It's been over 25 years since an 0-6 team was favored by more than a field goal. The Giants have to win at some point, right? Only with offensive line issues, the Vikings will harass Eli Manning. Josh Freeman will be the wild card. If he is the Josh Freeman he was the last half of last season and the start of this one, New York could win. But until they do I won't pick them. I'm taking the points.
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