Week 12 is here and it opened with a surprising cover by the Atlanta Falcons. Week 11 was a tough one for me, as I finished 5-7-3 against the spread.
So what about this week? These are my picks.
Steelers at Browns (-1.5): Pittsburgh is not favored against the Browns for the first time since 2003 and the second time since 1994. That's nuts. The Steelers have come around and have been playing well. This is why I think they cover
Buccaneers at Lions (-9): Teams after playing the Steelers have a rough time, going 13-33 against the spread. Against the Bucs, though, this will not apply. Detroit is anxious to get back to winning their division. Pick: Lions -9.
Vikings at Packers (-4.5): As bad as the Vikings have been off and on this season, I just can't place a bet on Scott Tolzien. I'm taking the points here.
Chargers at Chiefs (-4.5): This is a conservative spread. KC traditionally is not great against the spread, as they have covered only one of 11 games in the division in which they are favored. However, after a loss to the Broncos, they will play better and keep on winning. Pick: Chiefs
Bears at Rams (-1): Ewww. Kellon Clemens and Josh McCown. I wouldn't touch this game, but if I have to pick a winner, I'm going Rams because of their defensive line and pressure on quarterbacks.
Panthers (-4.5) at Dolphins: Carolina has been rolling, but Miami has quietly gone 2-1 in their last three. They have Cameron Wake. On the road, this is the game where the Panthers get their stinker out of the way,
Jets at Ravens (-3.5): I still like Joe Flacco more than Geno Smith. Playing at home, I'll give up three and a half. Ravens to cover.
Jaguars at Texans (-10): I don't know how you can give Houston 10 points. Too high a line. Take the points.
Titans (-1) at Raiders: The Raiders surprised me in their game last week. Why not go with them this week?
Colts at Cardinals (-2.5): I said it on the preview podcast. I think this game is not going to be close. Cards in a landslide. I'm eagerly giving up those points.
Cowboys at Giants (-2.5): Over the last four seasons, the underdog has covered in over 70 percent of Cowboys games. Dallas is the underdog. I'm taking the points.
Broncos (-2.5) at Patriots: New England finds themselves as underdogs. While they have some defensive issues to solve facing Peyton Manning, they are 15-2 ATS after a loss. Pick: Pats
49ers (-5.5) at Redskins: The Skins are a mess, even more so than the 49ers. San Fran is 37-12 ATS on Monday nights. Why go against that? Niners.
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