Larry Fitzgerald Hall of Fame credentials

With the Football Hall of Fame balloting beginning I wanted to take a look at Larry Fitzgerald's career and see where he currently stands and estimate where his career will be in five years. At 29 right now Fitzgerald will be 34 and likely close to the end of his NFL career in five years. While it is likely Fitzgerald could play more years, for this article we will cap it at five as most WRs are not productive after 34.

Fitzgerald has been one of the best WRs in the NFL over these last ten seasons, while this year and last his numbers have been down he has still demanded the attention of every opposing defense even when he hasn't had a capable QB. With the reemergence of Carson Palmer and the expectation defying coaching of Bruce Arians it is possible that Fitzgerald finishes the season with a bang and begins to dominate opposing defenses once again for the next few seasons.

A Case for Yards

Right now Fitzgerald sits 29^th overall on the NFL Career Receiving Yards Leader board with 11,019 career receiving yards. Only four active players are above him and only Andre Johnson poses an immediate challenge (if you do not count Calvin Johnson at the young age of 27 sitting at 52 on the list and likely to be the next youngest to 11,000 yards).

Jerry Rice owns the record with 22,895 yards and it is unlikely to be passed by Fitzgerald. Next on the list is Terrell Owens with 15,934 yards and if Fitzgerald maintains close to his career average should pass before the five year mark.

NFL Career Receiving Yards Leaders

12 games into the season and Fitzgerald has a paltry 678 yards receiving (currently 32^nd in the NFL). If we extrapolate his stats, Fitzgerald is one pace for 904 yards. If he maintains that pace it will take him 5.6 years to pass Terrell Owens, so if we stay at the five year window Fitzgerald would retire 3^rd on the list with 15,424 yards.

Looking at Fitzgerald's career he has averaged 1157 yards a season over his last nine seasons (not counting this season). If he were to maintain that average, or close to it, Fitzgerald will finish with 16,804 yards and place him 2^nd overall all-time. As much as I'd like to believe it possible I do not think Fitzgerald will be able to maintain that pace. Over five years Fitzgerald needs to average 983 yards a season to overpass Owens for 2^nd on the list. That to me seems to be a very attainable number for Fitzgerald to average considering his style of play and supreme dedication to his fitness, health and craft.

Touching Down

Looking at touchdowns Fitzgerald is currently tied at 14^th on the list with 86 career TDs. The leaders in this case may not be catchable with the all-time great Rice leading the way again with 197 TDs, Randy Moss next with 156 and Owens with 153.

Currently Fitzgerald has nine TD receptions this year and is on pace for 12. For this career Fitzgerald averages 8.5 TDs a season (not counting this season's stats). If Fitzgerald maintains this pace for the next five years he will have 127 career TDs putting him sixth on the list behind Marvin Harrison and above future HOFer Tony Gonzalez.

In order to place behind Rice, Fitzgerald would need at least 71 touchdowns over the next five seasons. While we all wish that would happen, it is highly unlikely Fitzgerald averages 14 TDs a season for the next five years.

HOF Reception

Last stat to consider is receptions. Currently Fitzgerald is tied for 28^th on the list with 819 receptions. Not counting this season he is averaging 85 receptions a year over his 9 year career. Again extrapolating his stats we can predict that in five years Fitzgerald will have 1188 receptions. I think this number is very generous considering the drop in receptions Fitzgerald has had these last three years. So based on his last three years averages (counting on-pace-for prediction for this year of 77 receptions) Fitz will likely retire with around 1144 receptions.

As you can see from the list above 1144 receptions would put Fitzgerald third on the list of all time receptions. To surpass Tony Gonzalez, who is likely to finish his career with a few more receptions, Fitzgerald will need to average at least 97 receptions a season the next five season, again an unlikely thing to happen.

Playing it mildly conservative and combining all these guesstimations of where Fitzgerald's stats will be in five years, he could retire with the 2^nd most receiving yards, 6^th most TDs and 3^rd most receptions all time. Those numbers all scream guaranteed HOF on the first ballet.

Prediction for the future

Nothing is guaranteed in this league and with the ridiculous play of Calvin Johnson it is likely that Fitzgerald is remembered as the 3^rd or 4^th best WR of all time once Johnson is done with his career (depending if you rank Owens or Moss ahead of him). Based on my quick guesstimation math, Johnson is likely to retire (if he maintains his averages) with 19,504 yards, 142 touchdowns and 1187 receptions, firmly entrenching him as the second best WR to ever play the game.

It is a shame the Fitzgerald has not had consistent QB play his entire career because his numbers would be near as gaudy as Johnson's will likely end up being. When it comes time to vote Fitzgerald into the HOF I see him being voted in on his first ballet and as the third best WR to ever play the game.

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