Just \when you thought that everyone had a mock draft, now we have one that is mechanized. The Prediction Machine, which has been used to predict outcomes for big games and season projections, now has been used to mock all seven rounds of the NFL Draft.
The site explains the rationale behind how it made picks.
"NFL Draft Expert Matt Richner and PredictionMachine.com General Manager Paul Bessire took the reigns of all 32 teams in the 2013 NFL Draft to create this full, seven round "objective draft." With a complete evaluation of teams' strengths and weaknesses as well as an analysis of every player's talent, this "mock" draft represents what each organization SHOULD do in the 2013 NFL Draft. Focusing solely on verifiable, objective information about each player and ignoring what pundits think will actually happen with each pick, each draft selection below finds the ideal fit at each point based upon team needs with current roster, previous and future picks and ability to tolerate risk, players' strengths, weaknesses and variance (difference between ceiling and floor), offensive and defensive scheme assignments, and all players' relevant talent levels. Since we were running every draft, we followed the current draft order and did not allow for any trades.
"For example, due to an elite roster with few weaknesses and a large quantity of picks in the 2013 draft, San Francisco can assume risk and, thus, take chances on players with high ceilings that may have red flags elsewhere, whereas teams like Cleveland and Jacksonville are in the opposite position."
Here is how the Arizona Cardinals' draft turned out using the machine:
Round 1: Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
Round 2: Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas
Round 3: Kiko Alonso, ILB, Oregon
Round 4: Bennie Logan, DT, LSU
Round 5: Andre Ellington, RB, Clemson
Round 6: Dion Sims, TE, Michigan State
Round 7: Da'Rick Rogers, WR, Tennessee Tech
Obviously this is not how things will actually turn out, and there are some clear flaws. Barkevious Mingo does not get drafted until the fifth round in this model. Vaccaro lasts until the second round. But, as it is designed, this is how things "should" be.
Chances are that not a single mock draft will be 100 percent correct. There are too many moving parts. But if the Cardinals ended up with this group of young players, what would you think? Success?
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