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NFL picks against the spread: Roll with the home teams on championship weekend

A look at ATS picks and our staff picks.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

It is championship weekend -- the weekend that determines the Super Bowl matchup. The four teams that are left are the best four teams in football. This week is a very difficult to pick winners, even more so picking against the spread, because all four of the teams could win and the spreads are not too large.

However, here are my ATS picks for the two games on the docket this weekend.

Patriots at Broncos (-4): The trends are all over the place. Teams that score 40+ points in the playoffs are 4-22 ATS the next game. New England has covered only three of their last 12 playoff games. Also, in their last 13 games involving the Pats, the home team has covered 11 times. But Denver is only 26-40 ATS at home since 2006. Looking statistically, Peyton Manning improves his QBR on average by five points when he faces a team again. I am taking Denver. Four points isn't too much to give up and I don't think the Pats will run the ball as well as they did last week. I'll take Denver giving up the four. In my personal score prediction, I have this game as a push. For betting purposes, I think it is more likely that Denver covers than not.

49ers at Seahawks (-3): This is another tossup game. Both teams have been fantastic against the spread. I can't rely on those trends. Both teams are physical teams that stop the run and run the ball well. That basically neutralizes the other team. The difference is the secondaries. You can throw of San Francisco. And even with Russell Wilson's recent struggles, he will throwing against a weaker secondary than Colin Kaepernick will be. I have the Seahawks covering this game.

On a related note, here are the results of our staff picks and the updated leaderboard. As you can tell, with only three games left to pick, we have a winner at the top because he has a six-win lead.



Now for the picks for this weekend.


Seattle is the prohibitive favorite ad Denver is a bit more popular.

The question is now -- who are your Super Bowl picks? And who do you want to see in the big game?