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NFL picks against the spread and betting trends: Week 6

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Scott Halleran

It is time for my picks against the spread. Last week, I ended 7-8 and I started this week 0-1 after Andre Johnson and Ryan Fitzpatrick fumbled their way into at least a cover against the Colts on Monday Night. On the season I am 37-39-1, which is not bad considering my 4-12 start in Week 1.

I'll give you my picks for this week and follow with some good trends to consider if you want to beat Vegas this week.

Check out the SB Nation odds page for more!

Patriots (-3) at Bills: I know Tom Brady is questionable and the Bills have a tough pass rush. I still can't bet against him. Pats -3.

Panthers at Bengals (-6.5): Cincy was embarrassed on national TV. They will come out great. They have a good offense and a good defense. Carolina struggles to stop the run and doesn't have the weapons in the passing game. Cincy rolls. Bengals -6.5.

Steelers at Browns (-1.5): The Browns have been that close in so many games. They almost got Pittsburgh on the road. The home field will help and they will break through. I have them as straight up winners. Browns -1.5.

Jaguars at Titans (-6): As bad as the Jags have been, Tennessee with Charlie Whitehurst isn't something you can trust and the Titans don't run the ball enough. The game will be close. I have Tennessee with the win, but Jacksonville with the cover. Jags +6.

Packers (-3.5) at Dolphins: The weather is going to be an issue and the Miami coach knows Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay isn't good enough on defense. If Green Bay wins, it's within a field goal. I'm taking the points. Miami +3.5.

Lions (-1.5) at Vikings: Minnesota has been mostly bad, but they get Teddy Bridgewater back and the Lions are decimated. Vikings +1.5.

Broncos (9.5) at Jets: Peyton Manning against a young and not very good secondary. Blowout. Broncos -9.5.

Ravens (-3) at Bucs: Tampa looks so much better with Mike Glennon. Bucs +3.

Chargers (-7) at Raiders: San Diego is just so good this year on both sides of the ball and Oakland is abysmal. Chargers -7.

Bears at Falcons (-3): Chicago has the offensive weapons. Atlanta plays well at home, but their defense is bad. This will be a shootout, but a nailbiter. Bears +3.

Redskins at Cardinals (-3.5): Arizona will have Drew Stanton back, which makes this easy. Arizona plays well at home and Washington has lost 12 of 13. Kirk Cousins is bad against the blitz and the Cards love to blitz. Easy call: Cards -3.5.

Cowboys at Seahawks (-8): While the world champs are great, Dallas' offense is really good this year. Their defense is underrated. The question -- can Tony Romo avoid turnovers? I have a Hawks win, but it won't be a blowout. Eight points are too much to give up. Cowboys +8.

Giants at Eagles (-3): Philly is too banged up and too fluky. They can't keep scoring non-offensive points. The GIants are rolling right now. New York wins this outright. Giants +3.

49ers (-3.5) at Rams: Frisco hasn't lost since Arizona. St. Louis is tough, but they don't have enough. Another easy pick: Niners -3.5

Now for some trends. These Week 6 trends come from the Prediction Machine. They might provide some clarity for your bets.

Week 6 - Situational Trends

All-time, teams coming off a bye and as a home dog of 3 or more points are: 51-39-2 (57% ATS).

·         Games Matching this Criteria: Dolphins (+3.5) vs. Packers, Raiders (+7) vs. Chargers.


All-time, 0-4 teams that are home dogs are 16-12-1 (57% ATS).

·         Games Matching this Criteria: Raiders (+7) vs. Chargers.


All-time, teams favored against 0-5 teams are 25-38-1 (40% ATS).

·         Games Matching this Criteria: Titans (-6) vs. Jaguars.


NFL Trends - Week 6
Note: In our data "All-time" goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.

Team

Spread

Trend

AZ

-3.5 vs. WAS

Since 2004, the Cardinals as favorites of 3 or more points are 16-25-3 (39% ATS).

ATL

-3.5 vs. CHI

Since 2008, the Matt Ryan era, the Falcons following a loss and as a home favorite are 9-5-2 (64% ATS).

BAL

-3.5 @ TB

Since 2008, when Joe Flacco became the starter, the Ravens as road favorites are 13-10-1 (57% ATS).

BUF

+3 vs. NE

Since 2001, the Tom Brady era, the Bills against the Patriots are 9-16-1 (36% ATS).

CAR

+7 @ CIN

In the Cam Newton era, the Panthers have been dogs of 7 or more points six times and has lost every game.

CHI

+3.5 @ ATL

Since 2009, the Jay Cutler era, the Bears as road dogs are 11-17 (39% ATS).

CIN

-7 vs. CAR

Since 2011, the Andy Dalton era, the Bengals as home favorites of 3 or more points are 12-5-1 (71% ATS).

CLE

-2.5 vs. PIT

Since 2004, the Browns as favorites against the AFC North are 2-5 (29% ATS).

DAL

+8 @ SEA

Since 2005, the Tony Romo era, the Cowboys as road dogs of 3 or more points are 18-12-1 (60% ATS).

DEN

-8.5 @ NYJ

In the Peyton Manning era, the Broncos as road favorites of 7 or more points are 13-7-2 (65% ATS).

DET

-2 @ MIN

Since 2011, Matthew Stafford has started every game, the Lions as road favorites are 4-7-1 (36% ATS).

GB

-3.5 @ MIA

Since 2008, the Packers as road favorites are 18-15 (55% ATS).

HOU

+3 vs. IND

All-time, the Texans as home dogs of less than 3 points are 9-5-2 (64% ATS).

IND

-3 @ HOU

Andrew Luck as a road favorite is 5-1-1 (83% ATS).

JAX

+6 @ TEN

All-time, teams that start the season 0-5 and are road dogs are 22-14-1 (61% ATS).

MIA

+3.5 vs. GB

All-time, the Dolphins as home dogs of 3 or more points are 23-15-2 (61% ATS).

MIN

+2 vs. DET

All-time, the Vikings as home dogs of 3 or fewer points are 22-18 (55% ATS).

NE

-3 @ BUF

Since 2001, the Tom Brady era, the Patriots as road favorites against the AFC East are 17-12-1 (59% ATS).

NYG

+3 @ PHI

Since 2005, the Eli Manning era, the Giants as road dogs of fewer than 3 points are 12-8-1 (60% ATS).

NYJ

+8.5 vs. DEN

Since 2004, the Jets as underdogs of 8 or more points are 16-7-1 (68% ATS).

OAK

+7 vs. SD

Since 2004, all teams as home dogs of 7 or more points are 101-81-2 (56% ATS).

PHI

-3 vs. NYG

Since 2004, the Eagles as home favorites against the NFC East are 30-40-3 (43% ATS).

PIT

+2.5 @ CLE

Since 2004, the Ben Roethlisberger era, the Steelers vs. the AFC North are 37-25-3 (60% ATS).

SD

-7 @ OAK

Since 2006, the Philip Rivers era, the Chargers as road favorites are 16-21 (43% ATS).

SF

-3 @ STL

Since 2011, the Jim Harbaugh era, the 49ers as road favorites are 13-7-1 (65% ATS).

SEA

-8 vs. DAL

Since 2012, the Russell Wilson era, the Seahawks as home favorites are 11-4-1 (73% ATS).

STL

+3 vs. SF

All-time, the Rams as home dogs of 3 or more points are 30-51-1 (37% ATS).

TB

+3.5 vs. BAL

Since 2004, teams that start the season 1-4 and are home dogs are 10-6 (63% ATS).

TEN

-6 vs. JAX

Since 2004, the Titans as home favorites of 3 or more points are 18-26-1 (41% ATS).

WAS

+3.5 @ AZ

All-time, teams following a Monday Night loss and as road dogs of 3 or more points are 28-19-1 (60% ATS).