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2014 NFL Week 7 picks against the spread and betting trends

Here is how I would wager for these games.

Michael Thomas

It is time for my weekly picks against the spread. I was a respectable 9-6 last week, bringing me up above .500 finally. I am 46-45-1 on the year, but that is something considering I began 4-12 in Week 1.

With one game in the books from Thursday Night Football, when I correctly picked the Jets to cover (and lose), I added another win to start the week 1-0.

Here are my picks against the Vegas spread and then some pertinent trends heading into the week.

Vikings at Bills (-5.5): I like the Bills at home. They are doing a little more with Kyle Orton and their defense is strong enough to keep Teddy Bridgewater in check. Pick: Bills -5.5.

Dolphins at Bears (-3.5): I like the Chicago offense and Miami was strong last week, but traveling to Chicago will be a different atmosphere. Pick: Bears -3.5.

Saints at Lions (-3): The Lions keep proving me wrong, but I just can't believe the Saints will be kept down that long. It is on the road, but it is in a dome. Detroit is in for a letdown. Pick: Saints +3.

Panthers at Packers (-7): Well, Green Bay had all they could handle with Miami and needed a little Aaron Rodgers trickery. I like them more at home, but Carolina has turned the corner a bit. I see a Packers win, but it will be close. I'll take the points and go Panthers +7.

Bengals at Colts (-3): It's at the point I can't bet against Andrew Luck at home. We saw Cincinnati exposed against the Patriots. I think Indy is too much. Pick: Colts -3.

Seahawks (-7) at Rams: Seattle just unloaded their locker room cancer and is coming off an embarrassing loss at  home to the Cowboys. They will bounce back. This is a lock: Seahawks -7. It won't even be close.

Titans at Redskins (5.5): Washington just can't get out of their own way. They have turnover issues. Tennessee was lucky they got the win over the Jags. Nonetheless, I can't give up 5.5 with Kirk Cousins at QB. I'll take the points and go Titans +5.5.

Browns (-5.5) at Jags: Cleveland is coming off a huge win and the Jags are at home and coming off a disappointing loss. I want to pull the trigger on Jacksonville, but I can't. Pick: Browns -5.5.

Falcons at Ravens (-7): I just can't bet on Atlanta on the road. They are bad and the Ravens have been decent. Pick: Ravens -7.

Chiefs at Chargers (-4): The Chargers survived the Raiders and now have another division battle. This will be a tough one. AFC West games are always tough. I see a San Diego win, but I think it will go to the wire. I'll take the points and go KC +4.

Giants at Cowboys (-6.5): Oh, boy. Dallas is flying high after a win in Seattle and they look absolutely dominant.  This is where I expect a letdown. Eli Manning will come in and change the song a bit, especially after the G-Men are coming off an embarrassing loss. The is the perfect storm. Pick: Giants +6.5.

Cardinals (-3.5) at Raiders: Oakland isn't good and the Cardinals keep winning. With Carson Palmer back and facing his former team, I expect a blowout. Cards -3.5.

49ers at Broncos (-6.5): Denver at home against a Niners team that is depleted defensively. We saw what they did to the Cardinals. It will be a repeat. Broncos -6.5.

Texans at Steeler s(-3.5): The Steelers are at home on national TV and coming off an embarrassment. They will bounce back. Steelers -3.5.

Week 7 NFL Betting Trends (Via Oddsshark)

Highlights:

· Browns (since they came back into the NFL) have never been favored by this much on the road (as a closing number).

· Bears are horrible at home and money losers as home favorites too.

· Pats rarely cover as big favorites.

·         Seahawks are a reliable bet coming off a loss, but Rams are very tough as big home dogs.

·         Texans have lost 10 in a row SU as road underdogs (4-6 ATS) and failed to cover six straight MNF games.

Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears (-3, 49)

·         Dolphins are 4-0 SU & ATS last 4 road games vs. NFC North

·         Bears are 1-10-1 ATS last 12 home games

Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5, 49.5)

·         Falcons 1-7 ATS last 8 meetings with Ravens

·         Falcons 2-7 ATS last 9 games as road underdogs

·         UNDER 7-1 in last 8 meetings

·         Ravens are 28-3 SU past 31 games as home favorites

Tennessee Titans at Washington Redskins (-6, 46)

·         Titans 5-0 SU & ATS last 5 road games vs. NFC East

·         Redskins 5-1-1 ATS last 7 home games vs. AFC South

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams (+7.5, 43.5)

·         Seahawks is 9-3 ATS past 12 games after a loss

·         Rams are 8-1-1 ATS past 10 games as home dogs of 7 or more points

·         UNDER 7-1 in last 8 meetings

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5, 45)

·         Browns 7-1-1 ATS last 9 games as road favorites (8-1 SU)

·         Jaguars 1-7-1 ATS last 9 games as home underdogs

·         Browns have never closed as road favorites higher than 3.5 points

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 49)

·         Colts 7-2 SU & ATS last 9 home games vs. AFC North

·         Bengals 6-1-1 ATS last eight games as road underdogs

·         UNDER is 12-2 in Indy's last 14 home games vs. AFC North

Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills (-5, 43)

·         Vikings 1-8 ATS last 9 games vs. AFC East

·         UNDER 10-2 in Buffalo's last 12 games vs. NFC North

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions (-2.5, 48.5)

·         Saints 4-0 SU & ATS last 4 meetings with Lions

·         Saints 1-8 SU, 0-9 ATS past nine regular season road games

·         OVER 10-2 in New Orleans' last 12 road games vs. NFC North

·         Lions 3-6 ATS last 9 games as home favorites

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-7.5, 49)

·         Panthers 9-2 ATS last 11 games as road underdogs

·         OVER 8-1 in Green Bay's last 9 home games vs. NFC South

·         Past four meetings all played OVER the total

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-4, 44.5)

·         Chargers 3-7 ATS last 10 home games vs. AFC West

·         OVER 4-0 in last four meetings

Arizona Cardinals at Oakland Raiders (+3, 44)

·         Cardinals 0-7 SU last 7 road games vs. AFC West (1-6 ATS)

·         Raiders 3-8 ATS last 11 games as home underdog

·         UNDER 5-0 in Oakland's last 5 home games vs. NFC West

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 48)

·         Giants 4-1 SU & ATS last 5 road meetings with Cowboys

·         Cowboys 0-4 ATS last 4 games as home favorites

·         OVER in last 5 meetings at Dallas

San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos (-7, 50)

·         49ers 5-2 SU & ATS last 7 meetings with Broncos

·         Broncos 8-3 ATS in last 11 home games vs. NFC West

·         OVER 6-0 in Denver's last 6 home games vs. NFC West

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 45)

·         Texans 0-10 SU last 10 games as road underdogs (4-6 ATS)

·         Texans 0-6 ATS past six Monday Night Games, only 1-6 ATS career on MNF

·         UNDER is 8-3 past 11 Steelers MNF games