It is time for my weekly picks against the spread. I was a respectable 9-6 last week, bringing me up above .500 finally. I am 46-45-1 on the year, but that is something considering I began 4-12 in Week 1.
With one game in the books from Thursday Night Football, when I correctly picked the Jets to cover (and lose), I added another win to start the week 1-0.
Here are my picks against the Vegas spread and then some pertinent trends heading into the week.
Vikings at Bills (-5.5): I like the Bills at home. They are doing a little more with Kyle Orton and their defense is strong enough to keep Teddy Bridgewater in check. Pick: Bills -5.5.
Dolphins at Bears (-3.5): I like the Chicago offense and Miami was strong last week, but traveling to Chicago will be a different atmosphere. Pick: Bears -3.5.
Saints at Lions (-3): The Lions keep proving me wrong, but I just can't believe the Saints will be kept down that long. It is on the road, but it is in a dome. Detroit is in for a letdown. Pick: Saints +3.
Panthers at Packers (-7): Well, Green Bay had all they could handle with Miami and needed a little Aaron Rodgers trickery. I like them more at home, but Carolina has turned the corner a bit. I see a Packers win, but it will be close. I'll take the points and go Panthers +7.
Bengals at Colts (-3): It's at the point I can't bet against Andrew Luck at home. We saw Cincinnati exposed against the Patriots. I think Indy is too much. Pick: Colts -3.
Seahawks (-7) at Rams: Seattle just unloaded their locker room cancer and is coming off an embarrassing loss at home to the Cowboys. They will bounce back. This is a lock: Seahawks -7. It won't even be close.
Titans at Redskins (5.5): Washington just can't get out of their own way. They have turnover issues. Tennessee was lucky they got the win over the Jags. Nonetheless, I can't give up 5.5 with Kirk Cousins at QB. I'll take the points and go Titans +5.5.
Browns (-5.5) at Jags: Cleveland is coming off a huge win and the Jags are at home and coming off a disappointing loss. I want to pull the trigger on Jacksonville, but I can't. Pick: Browns -5.5.
Falcons at Ravens (-7): I just can't bet on Atlanta on the road. They are bad and the Ravens have been decent. Pick: Ravens -7.
Chiefs at Chargers (-4): The Chargers survived the Raiders and now have another division battle. This will be a tough one. AFC West games are always tough. I see a San Diego win, but I think it will go to the wire. I'll take the points and go KC +4.
Giants at Cowboys (-6.5): Oh, boy. Dallas is flying high after a win in Seattle and they look absolutely dominant. This is where I expect a letdown. Eli Manning will come in and change the song a bit, especially after the G-Men are coming off an embarrassing loss. The is the perfect storm. Pick: Giants +6.5.
Cardinals (-3.5) at Raiders: Oakland isn't good and the Cardinals keep winning. With Carson Palmer back and facing his former team, I expect a blowout. Cards -3.5.
49ers at Broncos (-6.5): Denver at home against a Niners team that is depleted defensively. We saw what they did to the Cardinals. It will be a repeat. Broncos -6.5.
Texans at Steeler s(-3.5): The Steelers are at home on national TV and coming off an embarrassment. They will bounce back. Steelers -3.5.
Week 7 NFL Betting Trends (Via Oddsshark)
· Browns (since they came back into the NFL) have never been favored by this much on the road (as a closing number).
· Bears are horrible at home and money losers as home favorites too.
· Pats rarely cover as big favorites.
· Seahawks are a reliable bet coming off a loss, but Rams are very tough as big home dogs.
· Texans have lost 10 in a row SU as road underdogs (4-6 ATS) and failed to cover six straight MNF games.
Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears (-3, 49)
· Dolphins are 4-0 SU & ATS last 4 road games vs. NFC North
· Bears are 1-10-1 ATS last 12 home games
Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5, 49.5)
· Falcons 1-7 ATS last 8 meetings with Ravens
· Falcons 2-7 ATS last 9 games as road underdogs
· UNDER 7-1 in last 8 meetings
· Ravens are 28-3 SU past 31 games as home favorites
Tennessee Titans at Washington Redskins (-6, 46)
· Titans 5-0 SU & ATS last 5 road games vs. NFC East
· Redskins 5-1-1 ATS last 7 home games vs. AFC South
Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams (+7.5, 43.5)
· Seahawks is 9-3 ATS past 12 games after a loss
· Rams are 8-1-1 ATS past 10 games as home dogs of 7 or more points
· UNDER 7-1 in last 8 meetings
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5, 45)
· Browns 7-1-1 ATS last 9 games as road favorites (8-1 SU)
· Jaguars 1-7-1 ATS last 9 games as home underdogs
· Browns have never closed as road favorites higher than 3.5 points
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 49)
· Colts 7-2 SU & ATS last 9 home games vs. AFC North
· Bengals 6-1-1 ATS last eight games as road underdogs
· UNDER is 12-2 in Indy's last 14 home games vs. AFC North
Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills (-5, 43)
· Vikings 1-8 ATS last 9 games vs. AFC East
· UNDER 10-2 in Buffalo's last 12 games vs. NFC North
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions (-2.5, 48.5)
· Saints 4-0 SU & ATS last 4 meetings with Lions
· Saints 1-8 SU, 0-9 ATS past nine regular season road games
· OVER 10-2 in New Orleans' last 12 road games vs. NFC North
· Lions 3-6 ATS last 9 games as home favorites
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-7.5, 49)
· Panthers 9-2 ATS last 11 games as road underdogs
· OVER 8-1 in Green Bay's last 9 home games vs. NFC South
· Past four meetings all played OVER the total
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-4, 44.5)
· Chargers 3-7 ATS last 10 home games vs. AFC West
· OVER 4-0 in last four meetings
Arizona Cardinals at Oakland Raiders (+3, 44)
· Cardinals 0-7 SU last 7 road games vs. AFC West (1-6 ATS)
· Raiders 3-8 ATS last 11 games as home underdog
· UNDER 5-0 in Oakland's last 5 home games vs. NFC West
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 48)
· Giants 4-1 SU & ATS last 5 road meetings with Cowboys
· Cowboys 0-4 ATS last 4 games as home favorites
· OVER in last 5 meetings at Dallas
San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos (-7, 50)
· 49ers 5-2 SU & ATS last 7 meetings with Broncos
· Broncos 8-3 ATS in last 11 home games vs. NFC West
· OVER 6-0 in Denver's last 6 home games vs. NFC West
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 45)
· Texans 0-10 SU last 10 games as road underdogs (4-6 ATS)
· Texans 0-6 ATS past six Monday Night Games, only 1-6 ATS career on MNF
· UNDER is 8-3 past 11 Steelers MNF games