2014 NFL picks against the spread: Week 8

Week 7 was a successful one against the Vegas spread. I finished 10-5 and entered Week 8 57-49-1. Then, this week started 1-0 after the Broncos beat not only the Chargers, but also the Vegas spread.

So here we go with this week's picks.

This week, the favorite is the way to go.

Lions (-3.5) at Falcons (in London): The Lions have the defense and the Falcons aren't in their dome. I have to pick the better team. Lions -3.5.

Ravens (-1) at Bengals: Until A.J. Green returns, I don't think I can pick the Bengals. Plus, Baltimore is on a roll. Ravens -1.

Texans (-3) at Titans: It is the debut of Zach Mettenberger. I think the Titans get a boost. I expect an upset cover and win. Titans +3.

Rams at Chiefs (-7): St. Louis is riding high after a sneaky win over the Super Bowl champs, but now they go to play in one of the hardest stadiums in which to win. Chiefs -7.

Bears at Patriots (-6): Chicago is reeling and the Pats are rolling. It's at home with Brady. It's hard to bet against that, even when he is not what he used to be. Pats -6.

Bills at Jets (-3): I like Geno Smith in this game. I just can't trust Kyle Orton, especially on the road. It's not a hge confidence pick, but I'll go Jets -3.

Vikings at Buccaneers (-2.5): The Bucs are favored? That's because they play the Vikings. Bucs -2.5.

Seahawks (-5) at Panthers: The champs rebound. This is my lock. Hawks -5.

Dolphins (-6) at Jags: The Jags got a win. Playing at home, I think they continue to play well. I don't know about a win, but I  like taking the points here. Jags +6.

Eagles at Cardinals (-2.4): At home with Andre Ellington this time, the Cardinals defense shuts down the running game. Cardinals -2.5.

Raiders at Browns (-7): Oh, the Raiders stink. And the Browns will rebound after a loss to the Jags. Browns -7.

Colts (-3) at Steelers: I like Luck! Colts -3.

Packers at Saints (-1.5): With the Saints at home, this is an easier pick. Saints -1.5.

Redskins at Cowboys (-9.5): While I expect a Dallas win, I think the Redskins are up for the game and keep it within about a touchdown.

Trends (via Oddsshark.com)

Notable:

·         Patriots have won 18 straight October home games (12-5-1 ATS) since 2005.

· Rams have only won twice in 28 games when getting seven points or more on the road (2-25-1 SU).

·         Bills are just 3-15 SU in divisional road games since 2008.

·         Titans are just 1-7 ATS last 8 divisional home games.

·         Browns just seventh time in franchise history favored by a TD or more.

·         Packers are terrible as road dogs, they face the Saints who are awesome as home chalk.

Crazy 8s - weird ‘trends' in Week 8

·         Dolphins 12-2-1 ATS

·         Jets 0-7 ATS

·         Saints 5-13 ATS

·         Raiders 7-1 ATS

· Seahawks 2-10 ATS

Thursday Night Football

·         Chargers 12-2-1 ATS since 2002 when getting seven points or more (happened three times last season, all vs Broncos, they were 2-1 ATS in those games). SD also covered six in a row as road dogs.

London game

·         Favorites are 5-1 ATS past 6 London games (would favor Detroit). Also ‘home' teams are have lost six of nine London games SU (which would also favor Detroit as Atlanta is ‘home')

Head to head stat edges:

·         Seattle currently #2 in road rushing (168 ypg), Carolina #28 in defending run at home (140 ypg)

·         Carolina ranks last in home rushing, Seattle #4 in stopping the run on the road.

·         Texans #3 in road rushing (161 ypg), Tennessee dead last in stopping run at home (159 ypg)

Monday Night Football

·         Washington has been a double-digit underdog just five times since 2007 - three have been against Dallas and they covered the spread each time.

1)     Nov 22, 2009	WAS	6	DAL	7	L	-10.5	W	41.5	U
2)     Sep 28, 2008	WAS	26	DAL	24	W	-11	W	46	O
3)     Nov 18, 2007	WAS	23	DAL	28	L	-11	W	47	O

Week 8 Head-to-head Trends

San Diego Chargers +8 at Denver Broncos

·         Chargers 6-0 ATS last 6 games as road underdogs

·         Chargers 7-2 ATS last 9 road games vs. AFC West

·         Broncos 6-19-1 ATS last 26 home games vs. AFC West

Detroit Lions -3 ½ vs. Atlanta Falcons in London

·         Lions 3-11 ATS last 14 road games before bye week

·         Lions 3-10 ATS last 13 meetings with Falcons

·         Lions 3-7 ATS last 10 games as a favorites

·         Falcons 6-3 ATS last 9 games as underdogs (0-3 last 3)

Minnesota Vikings +3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

·         Vikings 0-6 SU & ATS last 6 meetings with Buccaneers

·         Buccaneers 2-5 ATS last 7 games as home favorites

·         Bucs 6-2 ATS past eight seasons after a bye

Chicago Bears +7 at New England Patriots

·         Patriots have won 18 straight October home games (12-5-1 ATS) since 2005

·         Bears 3-1 ATS last 4 meetings with Patriots

·         Patriots 1-5 ATS last 6 home games vs. NFC North

St. Louis Rams +7 at Kansas City Chiefs

·         Rams 0-5 SU & ATS last 5 meetings with Chiefs since 1994

·         Chiefs 2-12 ATS last 14 games as home favorites (0-5 last 5)

·         Rams 2-25-1 SU as road dogs of 7 or more since 2008

·         Chiefs are 9-2 ATS vs NFC West teams since 2002

Seattle Seahawks -5 ½ at Carolina Panthers

·         Seahawks 3-0 SU & ATS last 3 meetings with Panthers

·         Seahawks 4-0 ATS last 4 road games vs. NFC South

·         Seahawks after consecutive ATS losses, 10-3 ATS past 13 games

·         Panthers 3-10 SU past 13 games as home underdogs (since Nov. 2010)

·         UNDER is 9-2 past 11 Carolina games vs NFC teams

Buffalo Bills +3 at New York Jets

·         Bills 3-9 ATS last 12 games as road underdogs

·         Jets 3-6 ATS last 9 games as home favorites (0-3 last 3)

·         Bills 1-13 SU past 14 seasons before a bye week

·         Bills 3-15 SU in divisional road games since 2008

·         Bill 3-9 SU past 12 games at Jets, who are 0-3 ATS when favored at home this season

Miami Dolphins -6 at Jacksonville Jaguars

·         Jaguars 2-7-1 ATS last 10 games as home underdogs

·         Past four meetings all played UNDER

·         Jaguars 2-8 ATS past 10 games vs AFC East teams since 2008

Houston Texans -2 at Tennessee Titans

·         Texans 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings with Titans

·         Titans 1-7 ATS last 8 home games vs. AFC South

Baltimore Ravens +1 at Cincinnati Bengals

·         Ravens 3-7-1 ATS last 11 meetings with Bengals

·         Ravens 1-4 SU & ATS last 5 divisional road games

·         Bengals 4-0 SU & ATS last 4 divisional home games

·         Bengals 9-2 ATS last 11 games as home favorites

Philadelphia Eagles +3 at Arizona Cardinals

·         Eagles 0-3-1 ATS last 4 meetings with Cardinals

·         Eagles 10-4 ATS last 14 games as road underdogs

·         Eagles 6-1 SU & ATS last 7 road games after bye week (12-2 SU, 9-4-1 ATS after bye since 2001 overall)

·         Cardinals 5-1 SU & ATS last 6 home games vs. NFC East

·         Eagles played UNDER 12-3 past 15 seasons after a bye

Indianapolis Colts -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

·         Colts 4-0 SU & ATS last 4 games as road favorites

·         Colts 3-1 ATS last 4 meetings with Steelers

·         Steelers 10-2-1 ATS last 13 games as home underdogs

Oakland Raiders +7 at Cleveland Browns

·         Raiders 0-6-1 ATS last 7 meetings with Browns

·         Raiders 8-3 ATS last 11 games as road underdogs

·         Browns 4-10-1 ATS last 15 games as home favorites

·         Browns just seventh time in franchise history favored by a TD or more

Green Bay Packers +1 at New Orleans Saints

·         Packers 1-9 ATS last 10 road games before bye week

·         Packers 1-7 SU & ATS last 8 games as road underdogs

·         Saints 23-5-1 ATS last 29 games as home favorites (8-1-1 L10)

·         OVER 9-1 in last 10 meetings (7-0 last 7)

·         OVER 8-0 in Green Bay's last 8 road games before bye week

·         Saints 7-1 SU, 6-1-1 ATS past eight regular season home games as small chalk of three points or less since Dec 2008.

Washington Redskins +9 ½ at Dallas Cowboys

·         Redskins 12-3 ATS last 15 meetings with Cowboys (7-1 L8)

·         Redskins 2-7 ATS last 9 games as road underdogs

·         Cowboys 4-0 ATS last 4 home games vs. NFC East (0-7 previous 7)

·         Cowboys 1-4 ATS last 5 games as home favorites