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Week 5 NFL picks against the spread: Take Bears, Pats, Cards as underdog picks

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My weekly picks against the spread

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Week 4 was another modest week. I ended up 7-5-1 (Philly/SF was a push), but it pulled me even on the season -- 30-30-1. If you include the Thursday Night Football throttling, I am now 31-30-1.

Now I am back to square one with my picks.

I will go in a little bit different direction with my picks this week. I will give my picks and then some pertinent trends after them.

This is what I have for this week:

Texans vs. Cowboys (-6.0): I have Dallas -7. I like how they are playing right now. I don't trust Houston.

Bills at Lions (-7): I'm growing on Detroit because of their defense. Kyle Orton still isn't the answer. I have the Lions -7.

Browns at Titans (-2): Ken Whsienhunt and Ray Horton know Brian Hoyer. Tennese will bounce back from their three losses. Take the Titans -2.

Ravens at Colts (-3.5): Baltimore is playing very well, but Andrew Luck is very good at home. I have the edge to the home team and am willing to give up three and a half.

Buccaneers at Saints (-10): Well, the Bucs won last week. But they have to play in the Superdome. That won't go well. They will get throttled like they did in Atlanta on Thursday Night Football. I like the Saints by a lot. I'll give up 10 points.

Falcons at Giants (-4): Well, what are the Falcons? They aren't good on the road. The Giants are playing good football right now. I'll take the favorite here.

Rams at Eagles (-7): Philly gave up the game to the Niners last week and now return home. While the Rams defense is tough, I don't see them keeping up with the Philly offense. I'll give up the seven and take the Eagles.

Bears at Panthers (-2.5): Carolina suddenly is not reliable. Jay Cutler will go back to being good Jay Cutler. I'll take the Bears and the points.

Steelers (-6) at Jaguars: Pittsburgh is reeling after losing to Tampa, but it wasn't but a couple of weeks since they crushed the Panthers on the ground. They'll do that in Jacksonville. I'll give up the six to take the Steelers.

Cardinals at Broncos (-7.5): Even with Drew Stanton, the Cardinals defense is good. It will be closer than the spread. That's why I like the Cards +7.5.

Jets at Chargers (-6.5): San Diego has probably the best offense in the league right now. The Jets have a great defense. The Chargers defense is good, too. I have no problem giving up the 6.5. I'll go Chargers here.

Chiefs at 49ers (-6): The Chiefs are rolling offensively, but the Niners will get their groove going. That said, I think this will be a close one. I'll take the Chiefs and the six points.

Bengals (-1) at Patriots: I don't care how they have looked so far. After an embarrassing loss, Tom Brady will turn it around at home. The Bengals won't go undefeated this year. This is where they get their first loss. I like the Pats.

Seahawks (-7) at Redskins: After the drubbing they took from the Giants, I don't see another blowout loss, even to the Super Bowl champs. It is important to remember the Seahawks look different on the road. I'll take the Skins and the seven points.

Trends:

Are you interested in some notable trends for the weekend? These come from the Prediction Machine.

Week 5 - Situational Trends

All-time, teams that lost by 21 or more points and are favored by double-digits are: 21-17 (55% ATS).

·         Games Matching this Criteria: Saints (-10) vs. Buccaneers.


All-time, 0-4 teams that are home dogs are 16-11-1 (59% ATS).

·         Games Matching this Criteria: Jaguars (+6.5) vs. Steelers.


All-time, teams that lost by 30 or more points and are home dogs of 7 or more points are: 34-21-1 (62% ATS)

·         Games Matching this Criteria: Redskins (+7) vs. Seahawks


NFL Trends - Week 5
Note: In our data "All-time" goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.

Team

Spread

Trend

AZ

+7 @ DEN

All-time, 3-0 teams that are dogs of 7 or more points are 5-2 (71% ATS).

ATL

+4 @ NYG

Since 2008, in the Matt Ryan era, the Falcons following a loss and as dogs of 7 or fewer points are 9-1-1 (90% ATS).

BAL

+3.5 @ IND

Since 2008, the Joe Flacco era, the Ravens as dogs of 3 or more points are 14-10-3 (58% ATS).

BUF

+7 @ DET

Since 2004, the Bills following two losses and as dogs of 7 or more points are 6-1 (86% ATS).

CAR

-2.5 vs. CHI

Cam Newton against the NFC North is 5-2 (71% ATS).

CHI

+2.5 @ CAR

Since 2009, when Jay Cutler became the starter, in games with an over/under of 46 or more points the Bears over is 8-16 (33%).

CIN

-1 @ NE

All-time, 3-0 teams that are road favorites of 3 or fewer points are 6-12-2 (33% ATS).

CLE

-2 @ TEN

In the last 10 years, the Browns as a road favorite are 5-1 (83% ATS).

DAL

-5.5 vs. HOU

Since 2006, the Tony Romo era, the Cowboys as home favorites of 7 or fewer points are 13-22 (37% ATS).

DEN

-7 vs. AZ

Since 2012, the Peyton Manning era, the Broncos as favorites of 7 or more points are 13-7-2 (65% ATS).

DET

-7 vs. BUF

Since 2011, the Lions as home favorites of 3 points or more are 7-11 (39% ATS).

GB

-9 vs. MIN

Since Aaron Rodgers became the starter, the Packers as favorites of 9 or more points are 16-10-1 (62% ATS).

HOU

+5.5 @ DAL

All-time, teams that start 3-1 and are road dogs of 7 or fewer points are 27-35-2 (44% ATS).

IND

-3.5 vs. BAL

Since 2012, the Andrew Luck era, the Colts as favorites of 3 or more points are 9-6-1 (60% ATS).

JAX

+6.5 vs. PIT

All-time, the Jaguars as home dogs of 3 or more points are 20-28-1 (42% ATS).

KC

+7 @ SF

In the last 10 years, the Chiefs as road dogs of 7 or more points are 17-14 (55% ATS).

MIN

+9 @ GB

All-time, teams that 2-2 and are dogs of 9 or more points are 9-7-1 (56% ATS).

NE

+1 vs. CIN

Since 2001, the Tom Brady era, the Patriots as home dogs are 6-2 (75% ATS).

NO

-10 vs. TB

All-time, teams that lost by 21 or more points and then are favored by double-digits are 21-17 (55% ATS).

NYG

-4 vs. ATL

Since 2005, the Giants following two wins and as a favorite are 12-1 (92%) straight-up.

NYJ

+7 @ SD

Since 2009, the Rex Ryan era, the Jets as road dogs of 7 or more points are 7-3-1 (70% ATS).

PHI

-7 vs. STL

All-time, the Eagles against the NFC West are 55-45-3 (55% ATS).

PIT

-6.5 @ JAX

Since 2004, the Ben Roethlisberger era, the Steelers as road favorites are 20-30-1 (40% ATS).

SD

-7 vs. NYJ

Since 2006, the Philip Rivers era, the Chargers as home favorites of 7 or more points are 22-15 (60% ATS).

SF

-7 vs. KC

Since 2011, the Jim Harbaugh era, the 49ers as home favorites of 7 or more points are 8-5-1 (62% ATS).

SEA

-7 @ WAS

Since 2012, the Russell Wilson era, the Seahawks as favorites are 17-10-2 (63% ATS).

STL

+7 @ PHI

In the last 10 years, the Rams as road dogs of 7 or more points are 15-27-1 (36% ATS).

TB

+10 @ NO

In the last 10 years, teams that are road dogs of 10 or more points are 164-134-3 (55% ATS).

TEN

+2 vs. CLE

In the last 10 years, the Titans as home dogs are 10-22 (31%) straight-up.

WAS

+7 vs. SEA

All-time, teams that lost by 30 or more points and are home dogs of 7 or more points are 34-21-1 (62% ATS).