NFL picks against the spread 2014: Week 9 with trends

It is time for my picks against the Vegas spread. Last week was not great. I was 7-8 on the week, which brings me for all games on the season through eight weeks to 63-58-1.

I started this week 0-1 when I thought the Panthers would cover and win on Thursday Night Football.

Here are my picks for the rest of the games on the docket.

Jaguars at Bengals (-11): Well, Cincy gets better against a bad Jaguars team at home. Bengals -11.

Buccaneers at Browns (-6.5): I like Cleveland at home. Browns -6.5.

Cardinals at Cowboys (-4): This line is actually pick'em if Romo doesn't play, but I wonder if Romo plays. Cards +4.

Jets at Chiefs (-9.5): This line is too big. New York's defense is good enough to keep this close. Jets +9.5.

Chargers at Dolphins (-2.5): San Diego recovers. Chargers +2.5.

Redskins at Vikings (-1): The return of RG3 is the difference. Redskins +1.

Eagles (-2) at Texans: This is the surprise of the week in a wacky game. Nick Foles will have issues with the Texans defense and turn the ball over. Texans +2.

Rams at 49ers (-10): Big spread, but I still think it's a big win for San Fran. Niners -10.

Broncos (-3) at Patriots: Even game. I wouldn't actually bet it. But I won't bet against Brady at home. Pats +3.

Raiders at Seahawks (-15): The spread is huge, but Seattle will be at home against a bad team. Seahawks -15.

Ravens (-1) at Steelers: I'm going with the home team. Steelers +1.

Colts (-3.5) at Giants: Andrew Luck will come up big in another big stage game. Colts -3.5.

Now for some trends:

These come from Oddsshark.com.

Notable:

• Cowboys 14-1 SU at home vs Arizona since 1990
• Texans 0-6 SU and ATS when dogs of 1-3 points; have never beaten Eagles (0-3)
• Chiefs have been double-digit chalk just five times since Dec. 1994, 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS
• Chargers and Dolphins have played 11 times since 1995, every game went UNDER the total
• Niners hosted Rams after their bye in 2010 and 2012 and failed to cover either time
• Just the fifth time since 2002 the Pats are home dogs - three of previous four times were vs Peyton Manning
• Home team9-1 SU past 10 meetings of Broncos and Patriots
• Tom Brady is 10-5 SU, 8-6-1 ATS vs Peyton Manning lifetime (see chart of every game below my signature)
• Raiders have lost 14 of last 15 road games SU
• Raiders are9-3 ATS past 12 as double-digit underdogs

Week 9 Head-to-Head Trends

New Orleans at Carolina, +1.5 8:25 PM

• Carolina 5-1 ATS past six at home to Saints
• Saints 7-19 ATS as road favorites since 2009
• Saints 0-7 ATS as road favorite past two seasons
• Panthers 3-11 SU past 14 games as home underdogs
• Panthers are 9-2-1 ATS past 12 home games
• Saints 2-10 SU, 3-9 ATS past 12 road games
• Panthers 9-3 ATS past 12 divisional games (6-1 ATS at home)
• Saints 2-8 ATS past 10 divisional road games

Jacksonville at Cincinnati, -12 1:00 PM

• Jaguars 2-8-1 ATS past 11 games
• Jaguars lost 25 of past 30 road games SU
• Bengals 12-2 ATS past 14 home games
• Bengals double-digit chalk just four times since 2007, 4-0 SU, 0-4 ATS

Arizona at Dallas, -4     1:00 PM

• Cardinals won and covered three straight vs Cowboys
• Cowboys 14-1 SU at home to Arizona since 1990
• Cardinals 1-7 ATS past eight visits to Dallas
• Cowboys 3-12 ATS past 15 games as home favorites

Philadelphia at Houston, +1     1:00 PM

• Texans 0-3 SU lifetime vs Eagles
• Texans 0-6 SU and ATS when dogs of 1-3 points
• Eagles 5-1 SU past six games vs AFC South teams
• Texans 9-2 ATS before a bye week (excludes 2008 when bye was moved to Week 2 because of Hurricane Ike)

NY Jets at Kansas City, -10.5    1:00 PM

• Jets are 3-7 ATS vs Chiefs since 1988
• Jets on 0-7 SU, 1-5-1 ATS streak
• Chiefs have been double-digit chalk just five times since 1994, 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS
• Jets 15-4-1 ATS in Week 9 since 1989

San Diego at Miami,  PK          1:00 PM

• Teams have played 11 times since 1995, every game went UNDER the total
• Dolphins 8-2 SU past 10 vs Chargers
• Chargers are 10-2-1 ATS past 13 as road underdogs
• Chargers 2-10 SU, 3-9 ATS in November since 2011
• OVER is 13-2 past 15 seasons before a bye week for SD

Washington at Minnesota, -2.5 1:00 PM

• Redskins 5-2 SU at Minnesota since 1980
• Redskins 1-9 SU, 3-7 ATS as road underdog
• Vikings 2-8-1 ATS past 11 games as home favorites
• Vikings 9-3 ATS vs NFC East teams since 2010

St. Louis at San Francisco, -10.5          4:05 PM

• Niners are 10-2-1 SU past 13 vs Rams
• OVER is 12-2 past 14 Niners post-bye week games
• OVER is 8-1 past nine games when SF is double-digit chalk
• Niners just 2-7-1 ATS past 10 games after a bye
• Niners hosted Rams after their bye in 2010 and 2012 and failed to cover either time
• Niners 15-0-1 SU in divisional home games since 2008
• Rams are 2-16-1 SU in divisional road games since 2007
• Rams 0-6 ATS past six times playing in Week 9

Denver at New England, +3      4:25 PM

• Just the fifth time since 2002 the Pats are home dogs - three of previous four times were vs Peyton Manning
• Home team 9-1 SU past 10 meetings
• Patriots 26-2 SU past 28 home games
• Patriots 14-4 SU past 18 seasons before a bye week
• Tom Brady is 10-5 SU, 8-6-1 ATS vs Peyton Manning lifetime

Oakland at Seattle, -16.5           4:25 PM

• Raiders are 8-3 ATS vs Seahawks since 1998
• Raiders have lost 14 of 15 road games SU
• Raiders are 9-3 ATS past 12 as double-digit underdogs
• Seahawks are 12-4-1 ATS as double-digit home favorites since 2003
• Raiders are 3-14 ATS past 17 games in Week 9

Baltimore at Pittsburgh, PK      8:30 PM

• Only two of past 14 meetings had more than 44 points scored (total is 44)
• Steelers won five straight divisional home games (4-1 ATS)
• Ravens are 1-5 ATS past six divisional road games
• Ravens 7-2-1 ATS past 10 games in November

Indianapolis at NY Giants, +3   8:30 PM

• Giants won seven in a row SU after a bye week
• Colts 8-3 ATS past 11 Monday Nighters
• OVER is 9-1 past 10 Indy road games

• Giants are 2-10 SU as home underdogs since 2004