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It is time for my picks against the Vegas spread. Last week was not great. I was 7-8 on the week, which brings me for all games on the season through eight weeks to 63-58-1.
I started this week 0-1 when I thought the Panthers would cover and win on Thursday Night Football.
Here are my picks for the rest of the games on the docket.
Jaguars at Bengals (-11): Well, Cincy gets better against a bad Jaguars team at home. Bengals -11.
Buccaneers at Browns (-6.5): I like Cleveland at home. Browns -6.5.
Cardinals at Cowboys (-4): This line is actually pick'em if Romo doesn't play, but I wonder if Romo plays. Cards +4.
Jets at Chiefs (-9.5): This line is too big. New York's defense is good enough to keep this close. Jets +9.5.
Chargers at Dolphins (-2.5): San Diego recovers. Chargers +2.5.
Redskins at Vikings (-1): The return of RG3 is the difference. Redskins +1.
Eagles (-2) at Texans: This is the surprise of the week in a wacky game. Nick Foles will have issues with the Texans defense and turn the ball over. Texans +2.
Rams at 49ers (-10): Big spread, but I still think it's a big win for San Fran. Niners -10.
Broncos (-3) at Patriots: Even game. I wouldn't actually bet it. But I won't bet against Brady at home. Pats +3.
Raiders at Seahawks (-15): The spread is huge, but Seattle will be at home against a bad team. Seahawks -15.
Ravens (-1) at Steelers: I'm going with the home team. Steelers +1.
Colts (-3.5) at Giants: Andrew Luck will come up big in another big stage game. Colts -3.5.
Now for some trends:
These come from Oddsshark.com.
Notable:
- Cowboys 14-1 SU at home vs Arizona since 1990
- Texans 0-6 SU and ATS when dogs of 1-3 points; have never beaten Eagles (0-3)
- Chiefs have been double-digit chalk just five times since Dec. 1994, 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS
- Chargers and Dolphins have played 11 times since 1995, every game went UNDER the total
- Niners hosted Rams after their bye in 2010 and 2012 and failed to cover either time
- Just the fifth time since 2002 the Pats are home dogs - three of previous four times were vs Peyton Manning
- Home team9-1 SU past 10 meetings of Broncos and Patriots
- Tom Brady is 10-5 SU, 8-6-1 ATS vs Peyton Manning lifetime (see chart of every game below my signature)
- Raiders have lost 14 of last 15 road games SU
- Raiders are9-3 ATS past 12 as double-digit underdogs
Week 9 Head-to-Head Trends
New Orleans at Carolina, +1.5 8:25 PM
- Carolina 5-1 ATS past six at home to Saints
- Saints 7-19 ATS as road favorites since 2009
- Saints 0-7 ATS as road favorite past two seasons
- Panthers 3-11 SU past 14 games as home underdogs
- Panthers are 9-2-1 ATS past 12 home games
- Saints 2-10 SU, 3-9 ATS past 12 road games
- Panthers 9-3 ATS past 12 divisional games (6-1 ATS at home)
- Saints 2-8 ATS past 10 divisional road games
Jacksonville at Cincinnati, -12 1:00 PM
- Jaguars 2-8-1 ATS past 11 games
- Jaguars lost 25 of past 30 road games SU
- Bengals 12-2 ATS past 14 home games
- Bengals double-digit chalk just four times since 2007, 4-0 SU, 0-4 ATS
Arizona at Dallas, -4 1:00 PM
- Cardinals won and covered three straight vs Cowboys
- Cowboys 14-1 SU at home to Arizona since 1990
- Cardinals 1-7 ATS past eight visits to Dallas
- Cowboys 3-12 ATS past 15 games as home favorites
Philadelphia at Houston, +1 1:00 PM
- Texans 0-3 SU lifetime vs Eagles
- Texans 0-6 SU and ATS when dogs of 1-3 points
- Eagles 5-1 SU past six games vs AFC South teams
- Texans 9-2 ATS before a bye week (excludes 2008 when bye was moved to Week 2 because of Hurricane Ike)
NY Jets at Kansas City, -10.5 1:00 PM
- Jets are 3-7 ATS vs Chiefs since 1988
- Jets on 0-7 SU, 1-5-1 ATS streak
- Chiefs have been double-digit chalk just five times since 1994, 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS
- Jets 15-4-1 ATS in Week 9 since 1989
San Diego at Miami, PK 1:00 PM
- Teams have played 11 times since 1995, every game went UNDER the total
- Dolphins 8-2 SU past 10 vs Chargers
- Chargers are 10-2-1 ATS past 13 as road underdogs
- Chargers 2-10 SU, 3-9 ATS in November since 2011
- OVER is 13-2 past 15 seasons before a bye week for SD
Washington at Minnesota, -2.5 1:00 PM
- Redskins 5-2 SU at Minnesota since 1980
- Redskins 1-9 SU, 3-7 ATS as road underdog
- Vikings 2-8-1 ATS past 11 games as home favorites
- Vikings 9-3 ATS vs NFC East teams since 2010
St. Louis at San Francisco, -10.5 4:05 PM
- Niners are 10-2-1 SU past 13 vs Rams
- OVER is 12-2 past 14 Niners post-bye week games
- OVER is 8-1 past nine games when SF is double-digit chalk
- Niners just 2-7-1 ATS past 10 games after a bye
- Niners hosted Rams after their bye in 2010 and 2012 and failed to cover either time
- Niners 15-0-1 SU in divisional home games since 2008
- Rams are 2-16-1 SU in divisional road games since 2007
- Rams 0-6 ATS past six times playing in Week 9
Denver at New England, +3 4:25 PM
- Just the fifth time since 2002 the Pats are home dogs - three of previous four times were vs Peyton Manning
- Home team 9-1 SU past 10 meetings
- Patriots 26-2 SU past 28 home games
- Patriots 14-4 SU past 18 seasons before a bye week
- Tom Brady is 10-5 SU, 8-6-1 ATS vs Peyton Manning lifetime
Oakland at Seattle, -16.5 4:25 PM
- Raiders are 8-3 ATS vs Seahawks since 1998
- Raiders have lost 14 of 15 road games SU
- Raiders are 9-3 ATS past 12 as double-digit underdogs
- Seahawks are 12-4-1 ATS as double-digit home favorites since 2003
- Raiders are 3-14 ATS past 17 games in Week 9
Baltimore at Pittsburgh, PK 8:30 PM
- Only two of past 14 meetings had more than 44 points scored (total is 44)
- Steelers won five straight divisional home games (4-1 ATS)
- Ravens are 1-5 ATS past six divisional road games
- Ravens 7-2-1 ATS past 10 games in November
Indianapolis at NY Giants, +3 8:30 PM
- Giants won seven in a row SU after a bye week
- Colts 8-3 ATS past 11 Monday Nighters
- OVER is 9-1 past 10 Indy road games
- Giants are 2-10 SU as home underdogs since 2004