2014 NFL picks against the spread and trends in Vegas: Week 11

Last week was a mediocre 7-6, but it gets me back to .500 -- 72-72-1.

Thursday Night Football was a win for me.

Here is how I would go picking against the Vegas spread in Week 11:

Vikings at Bears (-3): The Bears have the offense if Jay Cutler can keep from turning the ball over. I think they do more than enough to beat the Vikings, though and three points isn't anything to give up. Bears -3

Texans at Browns (-3): Should I stop believing in Brian Hoyer? I guess not. Plus the Cleveland defense is legit. I like the home team, Browns -3.

Seahawks at Chiefs (-2): Seattle lost a key player on their defense after Brandon Mebane is gone for the rest of the season, and the defense has not been the same unit. The Chiefs can score points. I like the home team, too. Chiefs -2.

Broncos (-9.5) at Rams: Here is where the line is too big. The Rams are physical and play well at home. I think they will keep this in single digits. Rams +9.5

Bengals at Saints (-7): Drew Brees lost at home for the first time in forever. The Saints won't lose two in a row. I think they will probably win by two touchdowns in a bounce back game. Saints -7

49ers (-4) at Giants: I know the Giants are not playing well and the Niners get Aldon Smith back, but without Patrick Willis and still with offensive line problems, I like the G-men. Giants +4.

Buccaneers at Redskins (-7.5): The Bucs are terrible and, call me crazy, I like Robert Griffin. The Washington pass rush will get to Josh McCown. Redskins -7.5.

Falcons at Panthers (pick'em): Two teams that aren't very good. Hmm...Here I just go home team, although Atlanta has been playing well within the division.

Raiders at Chargers (-10): The Raiders are awful. You can't bet on them. Sorry. 10 points seems reasonable. Chargers -10.

Eagles at Packers (-6): Well, Green Bay is great offensively, but they won't challenge the Philly offense much. However, I think Mark Sanchez does not play as well. Packers -6.

Lions at Cardinals (-1.5): This is a HUGE game. Even without Carson Palmer, the defense of the Cardinals is great and they have a knack of just beating the Lions. Detroit plays into deficits, so that will be hard to overcome against Arizona. They are a much better team than New Orleans and Miami.

Patriots at Colts (-3): Yuck. I wouldn't bet this game. I don't like betting against Andrew Luck at home and I don't like betting against Tom Brady at all. Here I think the home team prevails. Luck has wins against very good teams. This will be another. Colts -3.

Steelers (-5.5) at Titans: Well, I thought the Steelers were my lock last week and then the Jets happened.  They are my lock again. If I'm wrong again, I'm a fool. Tennessee is bad.

Now for some Week 11 trends, from Oddsshark.com.

Week 11 Trends (include regular season and playoffs)

Notable Trends

·         Bears 1-11-1 ATS last 13 home games

·         Texans 0-11 SU last 11 games as road underdogs (4-7 ATS)

·         Falcons 0-10 SU last 10 games as road underdogs (2-8 ATS)

·         Rams covered five in a row as double-digit home dogs

·         Giants 2-11 SU last 13 games as home underdogs (0-4 last 4)

·         Raiders 9-1 ATS last 10 games as double-digit road underdogs since Dec. 2009 (six straight)

·         UNDER 9-1 in last 10 meetings (6-0 last 6) between Packers and Eagles

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears, -3

·         Vikings 3-0 ATS last 3 meetings with Bears (0-6 previous 6)

·         Vikings 2-11-1 SU last 14 games as road underdogs

·         Vikings 0-6-1 SU last 7 road games vs. NFC North

·         Bears 0-5 ATS last 5 home games vs. NFC North

·         Bears 1-11-1 ATS last 13 home games

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns, -3

·         Texans 0-11 SU last 11 games as road underdogs (4-7 ATS)

·         Texans 4-1 SU & ATS last 5 meetings with Browns

·         Browns 3-6 ATS last 9 games as home favorites (2-1 last 3)

·         UNDER 6-0 in last 6 meetings

Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs, -1.5

·         Seahawks 1-6 ATS last 7 meetings with Chiefs

·         Seahawks 5-1 ATS last 6 games as road underdogs

·         Chiefs 2-5 ATS last 7 games as home favorites (2-0 L2)

·         UNDER 11-2-1 in Kansas City's last 14 games as home favorite

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers, -1.5

·         Falcons 0-10 SU last 10 games as road underdogs (2-8 ATS)

·         Falcons 1-6-1 ATS last 8 road games vs. NFC South (2-6 SU)

·         Panthers are 2-7 ATS past nine seasons before bye week

·         UNDER is 10-2 past 12 Carolina pre-bye-week games

·         Panthers 8-1-1 ATS last 10 games as home favorites

Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints, -7

·         Bengals 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings with Saints (3-1 SU)

·         Bengals 6-3-1 ATS last 10 games as road underdogs (6-4 SU)

·         Saints 24-6-1 ATS last 31 games as home favorites

·         Saints have lost consecutive home games just twice since start of 2008 season (their next two games are home):

Lost Dec 19-27 2009 to Dallas and TB
Lost Sept 9-23 2012 to Wash/KC (in all four games, they were favored by at least a TD).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins, -7

·         Buccaneers 3-0 ATS last 3 games as road underdogs (0-4 previous 4)

·         Redskins 1-3 SU & ATS last 4 home games after bye week

·         Redskins 1-3 ATS last 4 games as home favorites

·         UNDER 3-0 in last 3 meetings at Washington

Denver Broncos at St. Louis Rams, +10

·         Rams covered five in a row as double-digit home dogs

·         Broncos 5-1 SU & ATS last 6 games as road favorites

·         Broncos 8-4 ATS past 12 as double-digit favorites

·         Rams 5-1 ATS past 6 as double-digit underdogs (beat SF in this role in Week 9)

·         OVER 5-2 in last 7 meetings

San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants, +4

·         49ers 11-2-1 ATS last 14 games as road favorites (12-2 SU)

·         49ers 1-6 ATS last 7 meetings with Giants

·         Giants 2-11 SU last 13 games as home underdogs (0-4 last 4)

·         UNDER 7-3 in last 10 meetings

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers, -10.5

·         Raiders 9-1 ATS last 10 games as double-digit road underdogs since Dec. 2009 (six straight)

·         Raiders 8-3 ATS last 11 meetings with Chargers

·         Raiders 19-5 ATS last 24 road games vs. AFC West

·         Chargers 2-8 ATS last 10 home games vs. AFC West

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers, -6

·         Eagles 1-3 SU & ATS last 4 meetings with Packers

·         Eagles 3-1 ATS last 4 games as road underdogs

·         Eagles 7-3 SU & ATS last 10 road games

·         UNDER 9-1 in last 10 meetings (6-0 last 6)

·         OVER 4-0 in Green Bay's last 4 games as home favorite

·         OVER 5-2 in Philadelphia's last 7 games as road underdog

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals, -2

·         Lions 0-5 SU last 5 meetings with Cardinals

·         Lions 1-4 ATS last 5 meetings with Cardinals

·         Lions 3-9 SU last 12 games as road underdogs

·         Lions 3-8-1 ATS last 12 games as road underdogs

·         OVER 9-2 in last 11 meetings

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts, -3

·         Patriots 3-0 SU & ATS last 3 games as underdogs, 10-3 since 2010

·         Patriots 19-9-2 ATS last 30 meetings with Colts (4-6 L10)

·         Patriots 0-4-1 ATS last 5 games after bye week

·         Colts 6-1 SU & ATS last 7 games as home favorites

·         Colts 7-2 ATS last 9 games after bye week (8-1 SU)

·         OVER 5-0 in last 5 meetings

·         OVER 12-3 in Indy's last 15 games after bye week

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans, +6.5

·         Steelers 2-8 SU last 10 meetings at Tennessee

·         Steelers 3-9 ATS last 12 games as road favorites (2-1 last 3)

·         Titans 0-5-1 ATS last 6 games as home underdogs

·         OVER 5-1 in last 6 meetings at Tennessee

·         OVER 6-0  in Tennessee's last six games as home underdog

·         Steelers were road favorites the past two seasons before their bye week and lost both SU (at Min, at Oak)

·         UNDER is 8-2 in Steelers MNF road games since 2005

·         Tennessee has won and covered four straight MNF games since 2008