NFL picks against the spread and trends: Week 12

The Oakland Raiders shocked the football world on Thursday when they defeated the Kansas City Chiefs. But that didn't shock this guy here, who had them not only covering the spread, but also winning the game outright.

So this week, I begin 1-0 against the Vegas spread. Last week was very average. I finished 6-7. On the year, I am 81-80-1. I guess you're as likely to win against the spread by guessing as you are using my picks. Oh well.

But here are the matchups in Week 12 and how I would place my bets this week.

Browns at Falcons (-3): Don't let anyone fool you. The only four wins the Falcons have this season are against the terrible NFC South. You can't trust that. Browns +3.

Buccaneers at Bears (-6): Chicago doesn't look very good this year and Tampa is playing better, coming off a convincing win over a terrible Washington team. However, this is in Chicago and in terrible Chicago weather. I don't like the points I have to give up, but with a warm weather team, these games get out of hand. Bears -6.

Jaguars at Colts (-14): Ugh. I hate this spread, but I do like Andrew Luck in a bounce back game. The Indy offense will roll. I'll roll the dice and eat the two touchdowns. Colts -14.

Packers (-9.5) at Vikings: A road game in the division. Aaron Rodgers has not been nearly as magical away from Lambeau. I don't like giving up that many points on the road in a game where the underdog will be ready to play because of the rivalry. Vikes +9.5.

Lions at Patriots (-7): I knew I shouldn't have picked against Tom Brady. That almost always burns me. Detroit lost by eight to the Cardinals, who don't do much offensively. New England is better. I can give up a touchdown here. Pats -7.

Titans at Eagles (-11): I really don't like this spread. It's Mark Sanchez, but he's at home. Tennessee had the lead and fell apart late. However, it is later in the season and Ray Horton defenses take time to jell. I will take the points in this matchup, even though I would prefer not to bet on this game at all. Titans +11.

Bengals at Texans (-1.5): A healthy Arian Foster and Ryan Mallett showing promise, as well as playing at home against a Bengals team that has not been great. I'll take the home team here. Texans -1.5.

Rams at Chargers (-4.5): The Ram are the biggest mystery. But the Chargers aren't doing as well as they were doing to start the season. The St. Louis defense is physical. While I don't know if a win is in the cards, I like the Rams for the cover. Rams +4.5.

Cardinals at Seahawks (-7): This line I don't understand. Seattle has struggled recently and Arizona is rolling. Arizona's defense is top notch and knows how to get big plays. I don't see any way where this game's margin is more than a touchdown. It'll be an ugly nail biter. Cardinals +7.

Dolphins at Broncos (-7): Poor Dolphins. They have to be the team that Peyton Manning faces after he lost the previous week. Manning is going to destroy Miami. Broncos -7.

Redskins at 49ers (-9): I would normally run away from this line, but Washington has no life. San Fran has a little life left, but there is a pulse. Life beats death. Niners -9.5.

Cowboys (-3.5) at Giants: This is a classic matchup. Everyone is talking about how not great Eli Manning has been. The Cowboys are coming off their bye. All signs point to a Dallas win, except that's why I don't like them. It's on the road in a division game. Late in the year, even when postseason hopes fade, rivalries stay. I like the Giants for the cover and the win. Giants +3.5.

Jets at Bills (in Detroit) (pick'em): Some places still have a line on this game. It is as high as Buffalo -2.5. But it won't be a home game anymore because it's being played in Detroit on Monday night. I'll flip a coin and take the Jets.

Ravens at Saints (-3.5): This should be a lock, but the Saints just don't look right. However, it is Monday Night Football in the Superdome. I can't see Drew Brees playing badly again. Saints -3.5

...

Now for some Week 12 trends, courtesy of Oddsshark.com

Week 12 Trends (include regular season and playoffs)

Notable:

·         Biggest road spread for KC since 1998

·         Bears 2-11-1 ATS past 14 home games

·         Browns have lost 22 of past 24 games as road dogs

·         Minnesota has been double-digit home dogs just three times since 1980, the last time was Oct. 23 2011 vs Green Bay, they covered in a 33-27 loss. Other two times were 1984 and 1985.

·         Cowboys 8-0 ATS last 8 road games after bye week (6-2 SU)

·         Broncos 7-1 SU and ATS after a SU loss during the Peyton Manning regime

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears -5.5

·         Buccaneers 4-0 ATS last 4 road games

·         Bears 2-11-1 ATS last 14 home games

Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons -3

·         Browns 2-22 SU last 24 games as road underdogs

·         Falcons 3-6 ATS last 9 games as home favorites

·         UNDER 3-0 in last 3 meetings

·         OVER 7-1 in Atlanta's last 8 games as home favorite

Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles -12.5

·         Titans 4-0 SU last 4 meetings with Eagles (3-1 ATS)

·         Titans 2-5 ATS last 7 games as road underdogs

·         Eagles 7-2-1 ATS last 10 games as home favorites

·         OVER 3-0 in last 3 meetings

Detroit Lions at New England Patriots -7.5

·         Lions 2-5 SU & ATS last 7 meetings with Patriots

·         Lions 3-8-1 ATS last 12 games as road underdogs

·         Patriots 7-3 ATS last 10 games as home favorites

·         UNDER 6-1 in Detroit's last 7 games as road underdog

·         OVER 6-1 in New England's last 7 games as home favorite

·         Pats lost just one November home game since 2009 (9-1 SU)

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings +10

·         Packers are 1-5 ATS as double-digit road chalk since 1997

·         Minnesota double-digit home dogs just three times since 1980, last time Oct. 23 2011 vs Green Bay, they covered in a 33-27 loss. Other two times were 1984 and 1985.

·         Packers 7-2 ATS last 9 games as road favorites (4-0 last 4)

·         Packers 7-3 ATS last 10 meetings with Vikings

·         Vikings 8-2 SU & ATS last 10 games as home underdogs

·         OVER 6-0 in Green Bay's last 6 games as road favorite

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts -15

·         Jaguars 4-0 ATS last 4 games after bye week

·         Jaguars 0-4 ATS last 4 meetings with Colts

·         Jaguars 7-2 ATS last 9 road games vs. AFC South

·         Colts 6-0 ATS last 6 home games vs. AFC South

·         Colts 6-2 ATS last 8 games as home favorites

·         UNDER 6-1 in last 7 meetings

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans -1

·         Bengals 0-6 ATS last 6 meetings with Texans

·         Bengals 7-3-1 ATS last 11 games as road underdogs

·         UNDER 8-2 in Cincinnati's last 10 games as road underdog (4-0 last 4)

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills -4.5

·         Jets 1-4 SU & ATS last 5 games after bye week

·         Jets 7-3 SU last 10 meetings with Bills (1-3 last 4)

·         Jets 5-2 ATS last 7 road games vs. AFC East

·         Bills 0-4 ATS last 4 games as home favorites (1-3 SU)

·         Bills 6-1 ATS last 7 home games vs. AFC East

·         OVER 7-2 in last 9 meetings

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks -7

·         Cardinals 8-1 ATS past nine games overall

·         Cardinals 7-1-1 ATS past nine road games

·         Cardinals 2-9 SU past 11 divisional road games

·         Seahawks 12-2 ATS last 14 home games vs. NFC West

·         UNDER 5-1 in last 6 meetings at Seattle

St. Louis Rams at San Diego Chargers -4.5

·         Rams 2-6 ATS last 8 games as road underdogs

·         Chargers 3-0 SU & ATS last 3 home games vs. NFC West

·         OVER 6-1 in last 7 meetings

Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos -8

·         Dolphins 8-2 ATS last 10 meetings with Broncos (7-3 SU)

·         Dolphins 2-5 ATS last 7 games as road underdogs

·         Broncos 7-1 SU and ATS after a SU loss during the Peyton Manning regime

Washington Redskins at San Francisco 49ers -10.5

·         Redskins 3-8 ATS last 11 games as road underdogs

·         Redskins 5-10-2 ATS last 17 meetings with 49ers

·         49ers 1-5 ATS last 6 games as home favorites

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants +3

·         Cowboys 3-0 SU & ATS last 3 meetings with Giants

·         Cowboys 8-0 ATS last 8 road games after bye week (6-2 SU)

·         Giants 0-5 SU last 5 games as home underdog

·         Giants 3-7 ATS last 10 home games vs. NFC East

·         OVER 9-2 in last 11 meetings (4-0 last 4)

·         Cowboys 5-12-1 ATS as road chalk since Oct 2009

·         Cowboys 8-1 ATS past nine games after a bye

Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints -3

·         Ravens 5-1 SU & ATS last 6 meetings with Saints

·         Ravens 9-2 ATS last 11 games after bye week

·         Saints 1-3 ATS last 4 games as home favorites (8-0-1 previous 9)

·         Ravens 7-2 ATS past 9 Monday Nighters

·         Saints 6-1 ATS past 7 Monday Nighters at home