NFL picks against the spread and trends: Week 13

Week 13 is here and three games are in the books. I personally went 8-7 in Week 12, but started hot. The first sixgames went my way, but after that, things sputtered. Now, after the three Thanksgiving games, in which my picks were 1-2, I am back at .500 -- 89-89-1. So maybe my picks aren't the greatest. Your cat might pick games as well as I do.

But looking at the Vegas spread, how would I go with my wagers the rest of the week?

Browns at Bills (-2.5): I have consistently doubted the Bills and keep getting burned by it. That defense will be trouble for the inaccurate Brian Hoyer. Kyle Orton is playing well. Bills -2.5.

Redskins at Colts (-9.5): The DC dumpster fire sends Colt McCoy to start in Indy. Washington is a joke and Andrew Luck is great at home. This will be a laugher. Colts -9.5.

Raiders at Rams (-7): The Raiders are coming of their first win and had a long week to prepare for the Rams. St. Louis continues to get impressive wins in a not so impressive season. But an impressive trend is that teams starting 0-6 or worse and get their first win are 12-3 ATS the following week. I don't expect an outright win in St. Louis, but I expect a tight one. Raiders +7.

Panthers at Vikings (-2.5): The Vikes lost to Aaron Rodgers, but almost got the upset at home. Playing at home again will be big for Minny, although the chance of a letdown after a big divisional rivalry is real. But the Panthers are a mess. Vikings -2.5.

Saints at Steelers (-4): The Saints on the road? Enough said. They can't even cover at home these days. Steelers -4.

Bengals (-4) at Buccaneers: Cincy is playing a little better recently and the Bucs are terrible. They are especially terrible as underdogs at home -- 5-22 ATS. Bengals -4.

Giants (-2.5) at Jaguars: New York couldn't get pressure on Tony Romo and he picked them apart. Now on the road against the Jags, they should win, right? At 3-8, are they really a road favorite? I like the Jags here. Jaguars +2.5.

Chargers at Ravens (-5.5): Home teams dominate the Ravens games against the spread. So, just go with the home team here. Ravens -5.5.

Titans at Texans (-6.5.): Ryan Fitzpatrick returns! But the Titans are still bad. I don't like this game at all. I'll take te home team, though. Texans -6.5.

Cardinals (-2.5) at Falcons: Atlanta is 4-0 against its own division and 0-7 against everyone else. Arizona falls into the latter category. Arizona has offensive weapons and a dominant defense. Plus, Matt Ryan has thrown nine career INTs against the Cards. East pick: Cards -2.5.

Patriots at Packers (-3): Some trends say New England is bad ATS on grass. I still prefer to go with the rule of not picking against Tom Brady. You might get a few wrong, but I like the odds. Plus, the Pats are playing such fantastic football right now. Aaron Rodgers is magical in Lambeau, but can his defense stop Brady? Pats +3.

Broncos (-1) at Chiefs: Arrowhead is a tough venue and the Chiefs are reeling after losing to the Raiders. I'mnot betting against Peyton Manning with Alex Smith on the other side. Broncos -1.

Dolphins (-6) at Jets: Ewww. This is a junk game. But the Jets did give me one very good underdog cover on Monday Night Football against the Pats. I'm going with that again. Jets +6.

NFL Week 13 Trends:

These come from RJ Bell of Pregame.com.

• Bears in division: 3-12 ATS
• Broncos: 41st time favored in last 42 games
• Bucs as home underdog: 5-22 ATS
• Cardinals have lost only 4 of last 20 games against the spread
• [Cardinals; Bengals] NFL away favorite off game as away underdog: 25-5-1 ATS
• Colts against team with losing record: 16-3 ATS
• Cowboys (vs. Eagles): the underdog is 23-8 ATS in series
• Cowboys: the underdog in Dallas games has covered 71% of the time since 2010 (53-22 ATS)
• Cowboys favored off a win: 3-16 ATS
• Giants only 6th team with 3-8 record to be a road favorite (in last 25 NFL seasons)
• Jags at home: 16-36-1 ATS
• Lions last 10 Thanksgiving games: only ONE straight-up win and only ONE spread cover
• Patriots on grass: lost 7 STRAIGHT against the spread
• Patriots as underdogs: 41-21-1 ATS (during Belichick era)
• [Raiders] NFL team off first win (after 0-6 or worse start): 12-3 ATS
• Ravens: road team has covered only 8 of last 28 Baltimore games
• Saints: road team has covered only 10 of last 48 New Orleans games (with Sean Payton coaching)
• Seahawks as underdog: last 18 games, lost only 3 against the spread
• Seahawks have covered 5 straight vs. 49ers
• Steelers when favored the week before playing Cincinnati: 1-14 ATS
• Titans: 3-13 ATS last 16 games