2014 NFL picks against the spread: Week 10 with trends

It is Saturday, which means making selections against the Vegas spread. Week 9 wasn't my best week. I went 4-9. Yuck. That took me to 67-66-1 on the year -- very meh.

I correctly picked the Browns to cover on Thursday night, although I was incorrect in my straight up selection.

Here are my picks for this week.

Chiefs (-2) at Bills: What to make of the Bills? It doesn't matter. Alex Smith is playing great football. I like the Chiefs for the cover here. KC -2.

Dolphins at Lions (-2.5): These are very hot teams and the Lions get  Calvin Johnson back. Too bad they are without Nick Fairley. I've got the home team here. The Lions' defense is very good. Lions -2.5

49ers at Saints (-5): The Niners could drop under .500 with a loss. New Orleans plays so well at home. San Fran doesn't know what it is anymore. They aren't good offensively and they are missing too many of their defensive stars. The woes continue for Jim Harbaugh. Saints -5.

Steelers (-5) at Jets: Ben Roethlisberger has 12 TDs in two games. The Jets have young corners. This will be fun. This is a lock for me. Steelers -5.

Falcons (-2.5) at Buccaneers: Well, the Falcons are awful  on the road. The Bucs were embarrassed on Thursday Night Football in Atlanta early this year. Josh McCown returns to the starting lineup. Revenge is on Tampa's side (and the fact Atlanta is no good outside of Georgia). Bucs +2.5.

Cowboys (-7.5) at Jaguars (in London): Tony Romo comes back, but it is about DeMarco Murray. He will want to start a new 100-yard streak. I've got the Romos here. Cowboys -7.5.

Titans at Ravens (-9.5): I don't think the Titans will win, but I don't like the spread. I;m not eating almost 10 points. Titans +9.5.

Broncos (-11.5) at Raiders: I thought Oakland would get killed by the Seahawks in Seattle. They didn't. Now they come home to play a division foe. They are normally tough games. But Peyton Manning was embarrassed in Foxboro. Poor Oakland. It will be ugly. Broncos -11.5.

Rams at Cardinals (-7.0): The Rams are so hard to get a read on, but Arizona is all business. They play well defensively, so St. Louis won't be able to do much. This will be Arizona's first blowout of the year. Cards -7.

Giants at Seahawks (-9): This is a big spread -- way too big. Seattle barely beat Oakland at home. Giants are better. I fully expect the Seahawks to win the game, but I would put my money on the Giants and take the points because Seattle's defense just isn't what it was a year ago. Giants +9.

Bears at Packers (-7): Sorry, Bears fans. Your defense isn't good enough to stop Aaron Rodgers at in Lambeau. Packers -7.

Panthers at Eagles (-6.5): It will be Mark Sanchez at QB for Philly. Cam Newton is coming off not so great a start. Carolina is still very physical so I expect a tight matchup. Panthers +6.5.

Here are some trends to help you out with your wagers, from Oddsshark.

Week 10 Trends (include regular season and playoffs)

Notable:

·         Browns 0-17 SU last 17 divisional road games

·         Saints 24-5-1 ATS last 30 games as home favorites

·         Broncos 8-1 ATS last 9 divisional road games

·         Packers 7-0-1 ATS last 8 games after bye week

·         Packers 9-2 ATS last 11 home games vs. NFC North

·         Carolina has been an underdog the past two times on MNF, won outright both times (last year at home to Pats, in 2012 at Philly)

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals, -7

·         Browns 0-17 SU last 17 road games vs. AFC North

·         Bengals 12-2-1 ATS last 15 home games

·         OVER 5-1 in last 6 meetings

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills, +1

·         Chiefs 3-11 ATS last 14 meetings with Bills (1-6 ATS last 7)

·         Chiefs 6-1 ATS last 7 games as road favorites

·         Bills 8-3 ATS last 11 games as home underdogs

·         Bills 8-3 ATS last 11 home games after bye week

Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions, -2.5

·         Dolphins 5-1 SU last 6 meetings with Lions

·         Lions 7-3 ATS last 10 games after bye week

·         Lions 3-7 ATS last 10 games as home favorites

Dallas Cowboys vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, OFF (Tony Romo status)

·         Cowboys 1-5 ATS last 6 games before bye week

·         Cowboys 1-3 SU & ATS last 4 meetings with Jaguars

·         Jaguars 1-4 ATS last 5 games before bye week

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints, -5

·         49ers 3-0-1 ATS last 4 meetings with Saints

·         49ers 1-4-1 ATS last 6 games as road underdogs

·         Saints 6-1-1 ATS last 8 home games vs. NFC West

·         Saints 24-5-1 ATS last 30 games as home favorites

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens, -10.5

·         Titans 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings with Ravens

·         Ravens 3-6 ATS last 9 games before bye week

·         UNDER 7-1-1 in last 9 meetings

·         Ravens 1-8 ATS past nine as double-digit chalk

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets, +4.5

·         Steelers 3-0 SU & ATS last 3 meetings with Jets

·         Steelers 3-8 ATS last 11 games as road favorites

·         Jets 6-2 ATS last 8 games before bye week

·         UNDER 11-3 in last 14 meetings

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, EVEN

·         Falcons 0-6-1 ATS last 7 road games vs. NFC South

·         Falcons 5-0 SU last 5 games after bye week

·         Buccaneers 3-8 ATS last 11 games

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders, +12.5

·         Broncos 8-1 ATS last 9 road games vs. AFC West

·         Broncos 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings with Raiders

·         Broncos 3-8 ATS last 11 games as double-digit road favorites (2-0 ATS last 2, both at Raiders)

·         Raiders 1-5 ATS last 6 games as home underdogs

·         Raiders 3-7 ATS last 10 home games vs. AFC West

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals, -8

·         Rams 4-9 ATS last 13 meetings with Cardinals

·         Cardinals 6-1 ATS last 7 games

·         UNDER 9-3 in last 12 meetings

·         UNDER 6-1 in St. Louis' last 7 games as road underdog

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks, -10.5

·         Giants 6-1 ATS last 7 road games vs. NFC West

·         Seahawks 0-4 ATS last 4 games

·         Seahawks 5-10-1 ATS last 16 home games vs. NFC East

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers, -8

·         Bears 3-11 ATS last 14 meetings with Packers (1-7 ATS last 8)

·         Bears 5-12 ATS last 17 road games vs. NFC North (1-5 ATS last 6)

·         Bears 8-3-1 ATS last 11 road games after bye week

·         Packers 7-0-1 ATS last 8 games after bye week

·         Packers 9-2 ATS last 11 home games vs. NFC North

·         Packers 10-3-1 ATS last 14 games as home favorites

·         UNDER 5-1 in last 6 meetings at Green Bay

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles, -7

·         Panthers 9-3 ATS last 12 games as road underdogs

·         Panthers 1-3 SU & ATS last 4 meetings with Eagles

·         Eagles 0-3 SU & ATS last 3 home games vs. NFC South

·         Eagles 6-2-1 ATS last 9 games as home favorites

·         Carolina has been underdog past two times on MNF, won outright both times (last year at home to Pats, in 2012 at Philly)