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NFL picks against the spread: Week 15 and trends

It's time for my picks.

Brad Barr-USA TODAY Sports

Mediocrity is the name of the game for me and my weekly picks against the Vegas spread. Last week I was 7-8-1. On the season, I am right at .500 -- 103-103-2. Just flip a coin.

I missed the fist pick of the week, as I thought the Rams would beat an cover against the Cardinals. Yes, I believe that does make me a bad fan.

Here are my picks for the rest of the week.

Steelers (-2.5) at Falcons: Pittsburgh has been great offensively, but their defense is suspect. Atlanta is a crapshoot, but facing a questionable defense at home,  I like Atlanta to cover.

Packers (-4.5) at Bills: Aaron Rodgers has been sick this year, but Buffalo's defense has been very good lately. I like the home team to cover, but not win. Their pass rush will affect Rodgers.

Bengals at Browns (-1): Johnny Manziel. That's all. Browns will get this game with a lot of fun.

Texans at Colts (-6.5): Andrew Luck at home? Yep. I'll take that bet.

Raiders at Chiefs (-10): Big spread. You would think the Chiefs will have revenge on their mind. However, Oakland is playing better. Plus, AFC West divisional games tend to be close. I'll take the points here.

Dolphins at Patriots (-7.5): Tom Brady at home against a warm weather team? Easy pick -- Pats to cover.

Redskins at Giants (-6.5): Just don't bet this game. Both teams are bad. But I will pick the Giants.

Bucs at Panthers (-3): Derek Anderson? No problem. It's the Bucs. I'll take the Panthers.

Jaguars at Ravens (-14): This spread is too much. I can't eat that many points.

Jets (-2.5) at Titans: Ewww. Yuck. I only pick the Jets because the Titans have been lifeless.

Broncos (-4) at Chargers: It's Peyton time. I have the Broncos.

Vikings at Lions (-7.5): I just can't bet on the Vikes. I'll go Lions here.

49ers at Seahawks (-10): Normally I run from these spreads, but the Niners are a mess. Seattle will steamroll them.

Cowboys at Eagles (-3.5): Everything says Philly should get the win, but I have a feeling the Cowboys will get them back after the Thanksgiving loss.

Saints (-3) at Bears: The Saints look bad. Drew Brees looks bad. But they will bounce back.

26 Top Vegas Trends
(ATS = against the spread; covered means covered the spread)

49ers (+10 at Seattle): First time San Francisco a double digit underdog in Coach Harbaugh era

49ers on the road: lost against the spread only 4 of their last 17

49ers following a loss as a favorite: lost against the spread their next game only 3 of last 20

Bears at home: covered only 3 of last 16

Bills after losing on road: 23-6 ATS their next game

Broncos (-4 at Chargers): 42nd game out of last 44 that Denver has been favored

Browns (-1 hosting Bengals): Favorite has covered only 2 of last 15 games in this series

Bucs in December: 10-26-1 ATS

Chiefs (-10 hosting Raiders): KC as favorites against division opponents: 2-14 ATS

Chiefs have covered only 2 of last 15 vs. Raiders

Colts vs. division opponents: 11-0 ATS

Cowboys (+3.5 at Philly): Underdog has covered 24 of 32 in this series

Cowboys as underdogs by more than a field goal: 14-3 ATS

Eagles at home: covered only 11 of last 35

Falcons off loss by 6 or more points: 21-7 ATS

Jets (-2.5 at Tennessee): Only 2nd team with 2-11 record to be a road favorite (data goes back 25 seasons)

Lions after scoring 30+ points last week: 1-13 ATS

[Lions] NFL team playing 3rd straight home game, after winning first two: 33-57-1 ATS (37% since 1990)

Packers in December: 23-12 ATS

Panthers in December: 23-11 ATS

Patriots at home (not laying double digits): 15-3 ATS

Patriots seeking revenge against division opponents: 15-3 ATS

Raiders as road underdogs against division opponents: 19-6 ATS

Seahawks have covered 6 straight vs. 49ers

Steelers as road favorites: 3-11 ATS

Titans: 3-15 ATS last 18 games

>>> Comprehensive report of over 200 NFL Vegas trends, stats, and tips will be tweeted on Wednesdayafternoon from: @RJinVegas