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NFC playoff picture: Despite underdog status, Arizona Cardinals still favorites for No.1 seed

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A look at some numbers and the playoffs.

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

So far this week with the big Sunday Night Football matchup between the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks, much of the talk is about the underdog status the 11-3 Cardinals have at home.

The game opened up at Seattle -7 and has grown to -8. No 11-3 dating back to 1983 has ever been so much of an underdog at home. It is the first time since 1999 that an 11-3 team hasn't been favored at home.

However, even with the underdog status, the Cardinals are still favored to be the top seed and NFC West champs.

According to, the Cardinals have a 55.38 percent chance of winning the division and clinching the top seed in the postseason, which is the highest chance of anyone. Seattle is given a 34.62 percent chance.

Arizona can clinch the top spot and the division title with a win over Seattle this weekend. If the Seahawks win, Arizona would need to win in San Francisco in Week 17 and Seattle would have to lose their regular season finale to the St. Louis Rams.

If Arizona does not win the division, they will be the five seed -- the top wild card team in the conference, which would go play on the road at the stadium of the NFC South champs.

NumbreFire's NFC playoff projections:

  1. Arizona Cardinals (55.38% to win NFC West)
  2. Detroit Lions (51.12% to win NFC North)
  3. Dallas Cowboys (68.10% to win NFC East)
  4. New Orleans Saints (54.06% to win NFC South)
  5. Seattle Seahawks (51.56% for 1st WC)
  6. Green Bay Packers (44.32% for 2nd WC)

Also, there is a 14% chance that a team with 11 wins will miss the playoffs (most likely the Eagles).