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NFL picks against the spread: Week 16 and betting trends

I make my weekly picks against the Vegas spread.

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

It is Saturday afternoon, which means it's time for my weekly picks against the spread. My mediocrity continued in Week 15. I was 8-6-1. I am now 111-109-3. So you can still flip a coin and do about as well. I am 1-0 to start the week with a correct pick of the Jaguars to cover on Thursday night, so there's that.

What doe we have this week in terms of point spreads from Vegas? Let's see.

Eagles (-7.5) at Redskins: I don't know what to think anymore about Robert Griffin. But Philly is good and wants to bounce back from a loss to Dallas. Washington has been atrocious. Eagles -7.5.

Chargers at 49ers (-1): The Niners are out of the playoff hunt and their head coach reportedly has one foot out the door. The Chargers are fighting for their playoff lives. I'd like to say SF has some pride left, but I can't. Chargers +1.

Lions (-9) at Bears: With how much the Lions have struggled offensively most of the year and add in the Chicago weather, the spread is too big. Bears +9.

Vikings at Dolphins (-6.5): Minnesota has been very resilient and has not given up on the season. Miami is...I don't know. I think it will be closer than a touchdown, so I like the Vikes to cover +6.5.

Falcons at Saints (-6): Atlanta only beats the NFC South and the Saints have lost four straight at home. But with the playoffs on the line, do you trust Drew Brees at home more or do you like Matt Ryan and a terrible defense on the road? I thought so. I want the Falcons to win, but I'm picking Saints -6.

Patriots (-10) at Jets: New England is steamrolling people. I don't like betting against Tom Brady. So it is a big spread, but I'm giving up those 10 this weekend. Pats -10.

Chiefs at Steelers (-3): Both teams fighting for the postseason, the Steelers have been amazing on offense. The Chiefs struggle against the run. Could be a big game for Le'veon Bell. Steelers -3.

Packers (-10.5) at Buccaneers: Too bad, Bucs. You get to be the team the Packer face after they lose. It will be ugly. Packers -10.5.

Browns at Panthers (-3): It looks like Cam Newton will play. They also are fighting for the NFC South title. Johnny Manziel won't get a win this week either. Panthers -3

Ravens (-5) at Texans: Houston lost Ryan Mallett and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Tom Savage? Nope, he's not beating Baltimore. Ravens -5.

Giants at Rams (-5.5): They are out of the playoffs, but they are physical. The Rams dominate. Rams -5.5.

Colts at Cowboys (-3): Tony Romo against a not so good Colts defense? I'll take it. Cowboys -3.

Bills (-5.5) at Raiders: There is no logical reason for this, but I picked weeks ago that Oakland would beat the Bills at home. So I'm going that way. Raiders +5.5.

Seahawks (-8) at Cardinals: I understand the line here considering it is Ryan Lindley starting. However, with the way both defenses are playing, I think this goes down to the wire. I'll take the points. Cardinals +8.

Broncos (-3) at Bengals: Here's a rule to follow -- don't bet on Andy Dalton on big stages. It won't work out for you. Broncos -3.

Now for betting trends from OddsShark.com.

Week 16 NFLTrends

Notable:

  • Cardinals are the biggest 11-3 underdog ever (at least since data goes back to 1983...only second 11-3 home team to be a dog, other was Tennessee +3 at home vs. Jacksonville in 1999)

·         Redskins home underdogs of 9 or more points just five times since 1980 (1-4 ATS) - past two times also vs. Eagles, lost 27-17 (+9) Oct. 26 2009 and 31-7 (+9.5) Dec. 27, 2003

·         Lions 4-26 SU last 30 divisional road games (11-16-3 ATS)

·         Falcons 0-11 SU last 11 games as road underdogs (3-8 ATS)

·         Titans are 2-16-1 ATS past 19 games within division

·         Buccaneers 5-24 SU last 29 games as home underdogs (7-21-1 ATS)

·         Jets have never been double-digit home underdogs (closed +9.5 twice in past three seasons)

·         Patriots double-digit road favorites 11 times since 1980, 10-1 SU, 3-8 ATS

·         Seattle road chalk of 9 or more points just three times since 1980, twice last season

·         Broncos 1-5 ATS past six Monday Night games since 2009

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins, +9

·         Eagles 4-0 SU last 4 road games vs. NFC East (3-1 ATS)

·         Eagles 8-4 SU & ATS last 12 road games

·         Redskins 0-4 SU last 4 home games vs. NFC East (1-3 ATS)

·         Redskins 2-8 SU & ATS last 10 home games (0-5 ATS L5)

·         If game closes -10 or higher, Eagles are 2-0 ATS as double-digit chalk in 2014

·         Redskins home underdogs of 9 or more points just five times since 1980 (1-4 ATS) - past two times also vs Eagles, lost 27-17 Oct. 26 2009 and 31-7 Dec. 27, 2003

San Diego Chargers at San Francisco 49ers, -2.5

·         Chargers 3-0 SU & ATS last 3 meetings with 49ers (4-1 ATS last 5 since Super Bowl XXIX)

·         Chargers 1-8 ATS last 9 games

·         49ers 1-7 ATS last 8 home games (1-5 ATS this season)

·         49ers 0-4 ATS last 4 games

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears, +7

·         Lions 7-1-1 ATS last 9 meetings with Bears

·         Lions 4-26 SU last 30 road games vs. NFC North (11-16-3 ATS)

·         Lions 5-17-1 ATS last 23 games as road favorites (0-3 SU & ATS L3)

·         Bears 3-13-1 ATS last 17 home games

·         Bears 1-5 ATS last 6 home games vs. NFC North (2-4 SU)

Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins, -7

·         Vikings 3-1 ATS last 4 road games

·         Dolphins 0-3 ATS last 3 games

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans, +6

·         Ravens 7-1 SU last 8 meetings with Texans (5-3 ATS)

·         Texans 1-9 SU last 10 games as home underdogs (3-7 ATS)

Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers, -3

·         Browns 0-4 ATS last 4 meetings with Panthers (1-3 SU)

·         Browns 3-9 SU last 12 road games (3-2 SU L5)

·         Panthers 10-4-1 ATS last 15 home games

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints, -6.5

·         Falcons 0-11 SU last 11 games as road underdogs (3-8 ATS)

·         Falcons 3-1 ATS last 4 meetings with Saints (0-4 ATS previous 4)

·         Saints 0-4 SU & ATS last 4 home games (11-0 SU & 9-1-1 ATS previous 11)

·         Falcons are 1-7-1 ATS past nine divisional road games

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, +11.

·         Packers 1-5 ATS as double-digit road chalk since 1997

·         Packers 1-3 SU & ATS last 4 meetings with Buccaneers

·         Buccaneers 5-24 SU last 29 games as home underdogs (7-21-1 ATS)

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers, -3

·         Chiefs 3-0 ATS last 3 meetings with Steelers (1-2 SU)

·         Chiefs 11-5 ATS last 16 road games

·         OVER 9-1 in Pittsburgh's last 10 home games (6-0 L6)

New England Patriots at New York Jets, +11

·         Jets have never been double-digit home underdogs (closed +9.5 twice in past three seasons)

·         Patriots double-digit road favorites 11 times since 1980, 10-1 SU, 3-8 ATS

·         Patriots 0-3 ATS last 3 meetings with Jets (3-1 ATS previous 4)

·         Patriots 1-4 ATS last 5 road games vs. AFC East (1-3 SU L4)

·         Patriots 3-7 ATS last 10 games as road favorites (3-2 ATS L5)

·         Jets 5-2 ATS last 7 games as home underdogs (4-3 SU)

·         OVER 9-1 in last 10 meetings

New York Giants at St. Louis Rams, -5

·         Giants 6-0 ATS last 6 meetings with Rams (5-1 SU)

·         Giants 0-3 ATS last 3 games as road underdogs

Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders, +6

·         Bills 6-1 SU & ATS last 7 games as road favorites

·         Bills 2-8 ATS last 10 meetings with Raiders

·         Raiders 3-6 ATS last 9 games as home underdogs (2-0 SU & ATS L2)

Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys, -2.5

·         Colts 2-6 SU last 8 games as road underdogs (3-5 ATS)

·         Cowboys 1-7 ATS last 8 games as home favorites (4-4 SU)

·         Cowboys 3-7 ATS last 10 home games vs. AFC (6-4 SU)

·         OVER 9-1 in Indy's last 10 road games vs. NFC

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals, +9

·         Cardinals are the biggest 11-3 underdog ever (at least since data goes back to 1983...only second 11-3 home team to be a dog, other was Tennessee +3 at home vs. Jacksonville in 1999)

·         Seahawks 10-3 SU last 13 games as road favorites (8-5 ATS)

·         Seattle road chalk of 9 or more points just three times since 1980, twice last season

·         Seahawks 6-3 SU & ATS last 9 meetings with Cardinals (3-1 SU & ATS L4)

·         Cardinals 10-3 SU last 13 games as home underdogs

·         Cardinals biggest home dog since 2006

·         OVER is 13-2 so far in 2014 SNF games

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals, +3.5

·         Broncos 1-5 ATS past six MNF games since 2009

·         Broncos 13-2 SU last 15 meetings with Bengals (3-5 ATS L8)

·         Broncos 6-2 SU & ATS last 8 games as road favorites (2-2 SU & ATS L4)

·         Bengals 4-0 SU last 4 games as home underdogs (0-4 ATS previous 4)

·         Bengals 1-3-1 ATS last 5 home games (11-1 ATS previous 12)

·         Just the 8th Bengals MNF game in past decade (3-4 ATS)