Week 16 was an okay week for me. I finished 9-7 for the week against the spread and now sit at 120-116-3. That's not great, but it's not terrible at least.
There is one more week in the NFL before the playoffs, which seem to be trickier to pick. So here are my Week 17 picks against the Vegas spread and some betting trends thereafter.
Bills at Patriots (-4.5): The line went from -10.5 to the current -4.5. That doesn't matter. Yes, the Bills are physical and can slow any offense. Yes, the Pats have things locked up, but I'm not straying from my "don't bet against Brady" philosophy. Pats -4.5.
Lions at Packers (-7.5): Detroit beat them once this season. Green Bay was slowed by Buffalo, albeit on the road. I think this is a physical game with a late score. I like the Pack to win, but I have Lions to cover.
Cardinals at 49ers (-6): Even with Ryan Lindley, the 49ers are done, hurt and probably have their next tee time ready. Arizona still is playing for playoff seeding and perhaps an NFC West title. Cardinals +6.
18 Top Vegas Trends
(ATS = against the spread; covered means covered the spread)
49ers after loss as favorite: Lost next game ATS only 4 of 22 times
Bengals in primetime: 3-13 ATS
Bills after road loss: 24-6 ATS
Broncos favored for 44th time their last 46 games
Bucs as home underdog: 6-23 ATS
Chiefs as division favorites: 3-14 ATS
Colts in division: undefeated ATS last 12 games
Colts vs. team with losing record: 17-3 ATS
Cowboys favored after a win: 4-17 ATS
Eagles vs. Giants: Underdog 13-4 ATS in series
Lions following a win: covered the next game only 7 of 27 times
Lions at Packers: Detroit 4-18-1 ATS (0-23 SU)
Pats at home not laying double digits: 16-3 ATS
Pats last week of regular season: 12-2 ATS (spanning entire Belichick era)
Redskins: 15-4 ATS vs. Cowboys
Saints: Road team in New Orleans games has covered 8 straight (in prior 44 games, road team had covered only 6 times)
Titans at home: covered only one of last 13 games
Vikings in December: 11-1 ATS
>>> Comprehensive report of my NFL Vegas trends, stats, and tips will be tweeted on Friday afternoon from: @RJinVegas