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2014 NFL picks against the spread and trends for Week 17

One more week of picks in the regular season.

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Week 16 was an okay week for me. I finished 9-7 for the week against the spread and now sit at 120-116-3. That's not great, but it's not terrible at least.

There is one more week in the NFL before the playoffs, which seem to be trickier to pick. So here are my Week 17 picks against the Vegas spread and some betting trends thereafter.

Colts (-7) vs Titans: The Titans are awful and the Colts kill their division. Easy pick -- Colts to cover.

Chargers at Chiefs (-2.5): No Alex Smith means no way will I pick KC. Philip Rivers is gutsy and Chase Daniels is...Alex Smith's backup. I like the Chargers to cover and win outright.

Jets at Dolphins (-5.5): Rivalry game,  but the Jets are done. They will have their bags packed ready to go home. Dolphins-5.5.

Bears at Vikings (-6.5): The Bears stink and will probably be without their head coach after the the next week. Home team here -- Vikes -6.5.

Bills at Patriots (-4.5): The line went from -10.5 to the current -4.5. That doesn't matter. Yes, the Bills are physical and can slow any offense. Yes, the Pats have things locked up, but I'm not straying from my "don't bet against Brady" philosophy. Pats -4.5.

Eagles at Giants (-3.5): Philly is out of the postseason. Eli Manning will end the season on a high note. Giants -3.5.

Saints (-4) at Buccaneers: They've been bad, but I can't pick the Bucs over the Saints.

Cowboys (-6) at Redskins: Dallas has a reason to show up with an outside shot at a first round bye and home field advantage. I'll take that over a team that has been awful. Dallas -6.

Browns at Ravens (-10): The Browns are starting a practice squad QB in Connor Shaw. Nope, not putting money on Cleveland, even with the big spread. Ravens -10.

Jaguars at Texans (-9.5): I like the Texans to win, but by that much? I'm not sure. I'm taking the points here.

Panthers at Falcons (-4): This decides the NFC South. Carolina is playing well defensively, but Atlanta is 5-0 in the South and at home. Falcons -4.

Raiders at Broncos (-14): Whoa! Way to big a spread. That's all. Raiders +14.

Lions at Packers (-7.5): Detroit beat them once this season. Green Bay was slowed by Buffalo, albeit on the road. I think this is a physical game with a late score. I like the Pack to win, but I have Lions to cover.

Cardinals at 49ers (-6): Even with Ryan Lindley, the 49ers are done, hurt and probably have their next tee time ready. Arizona still is playing for playoff seeding and perhaps an NFC West title. Cardinals +6.

Rams at Seahawks (-12.5): Seattle is on a roll. They want to avenge an earlier loss to the Rams and are at home. Even with the big spread, I expect Seattle to dominate. Hawks -12.5.

Bengals at Steelers (-3.5): Do you really think Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton can win two straight prime time games? I don't and the Steelers have been cruising offensively. Steelers -3.5.

18 Top Vegas Trends
(ATS = against the spread; covered means covered the spread)

49ers after loss as favorite: Lost next game ATS only 4 of 22 times

Bengals in primetime: 3-13 ATS

Bills after road loss: 24-6 ATS

Broncos favored for 44th time their last 46 games

Bucs as home underdog: 6-23 ATS

Chiefs as division favorites: 3-14 ATS

Colts in division: undefeated ATS last 12 games

Colts vs. team with losing record: 17-3 ATS

Cowboys favored after a win: 4-17 ATS

Eagles vs. Giants: Underdog 13-4 ATS in series

Lions following a win: covered the next game only 7 of 27 times

Lions at Packers: Detroit 4-18-1 ATS (0-23 SU)

Pats at home not laying double digits: 16-3 ATS

Pats last week of regular season: 12-2 ATS (spanning entire Belichick era)

Redskins: 15-4 ATS vs. Cowboys

Saints: Road team in New Orleans games has covered 8 straight (in prior 44 games, road team had covered only 6 times)

Titans at home: covered only one of last 13 games

Vikings in December: 11-1 ATS

>>> Comprehensive report of my NFL Vegas trends, stats, and tips will be tweeted on Friday afternoon from: @RJinVegas