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NFL picks against the spread 2014: Week 14 with matchup trends

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A look at my picks of the week against the Vegas spread.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

I am the epitome of mediocre. My picks against the Vegas spread in Week 13 were a very boring 8-8. My record on the season is 96-95-1. Boring. You might as well flip a coin. I am about as reliable as that.

But I still continue with my weekly picks, because they must be done. I started the week 0-1 in picking the Bears to cover and win. That was dumb.

Here are the rest my picks for Week 14:

Steelers at Bengals (-3): Cincinnati is playing so well against the pass. Pittsburgh has been wildly inconsistent. Bengals -3.

Colts (-3.5) at Browns: Brian Hoyer returns at quarterback, but hasn't been very good. He has been turning the ball over. Andrew Luck is playing at an extremely high level. Colts -3.5

Buccaneers at Lions (-10): This spread is too big. The Lions don't score that many points. The Bucs are terrible, but the Lions will drive you mad with close games. I'll take the points. Bucs +10.

Giants at Titans (pick'em): Yucky game. I'll take the home team. I don't like either.

Ravens at Dolphins (-2.5): I still don't believe in the Dolphins. The Ravens have talent and Justin Forsett is playing so well. Ravens +2.5.

Jets at Vikings (-6): Another stinker of a game. I'm going with the Vikings because their at home. You can't really ever trust Geno Smith. Vikes -6.

Panthers at Saints (-10): I hate this spread, but I think the Saints will begin to hit their stride down the stretch. This is the start. Saints roll. Saints -10.

Rams (-3) at Redskins: You never really know with the Rams, but they are playing very well and the Skins are...bad. Rams -3.

Texans (-5.5) at Jaguars: Ryan Fitzpatrick means greatness! OK, not really, but do you think the rookie Blake Bortles will do much against J.J. Watt? Texans -5.5.

Bills at Broncos (-10): Manning at home against a not so great team. Easy. Broncos -10.

Chiefs at Cardinals (-1): This truly is a tough game. Drew Stanton plays so much better at home and the Cardinals haven't lost yet this season at University of Phoenix Stadium. However, I do like the matchup for the Cards, so I will go with them. Cards -1.

49ers (-8) at Raiders: Oakland is hapless and got killed by the Rams. I expect them to be competitive in this game and this will keep the Harbaugh drama going. Raiders +8.

Seahawks at Eagles (-1): This is a tough. Philly has the weapons to beat Seattle, but the Seahawks look like they have hit their stride. I'll go with the home team since Russell Wilson is unimpressive away from home.

Patriots (-3.5) at Chargers: For some reason, the Chargers give the Pats trouble. But they won't lose two straight games. But I think it will be within a touchdown. Chargers +3.5.

Falcons at Packers (-12.5): The Falcons are suddenly looking like a good team. They have offensive weapons to keep up with the Packers at home. This is why the spread is too big for me. I will take those points. Falcons +12.5.

Week 14 NFL trends (from Oddsshark.com)

Notable:

·         Lions favored by double digits just once since 1996, beat Vikings 34-28 as 10.5-point chalk in 2011

·         Falcons on 4-0 ATS run as double-digit dogs; just third time since 2002 have gotten this many points (13)

·         OVER is 11-2 in 13 Sunday Night games so far in 2014

·         Patriots 24-5 SU in December road games since 2002

·         This is 41st consecutive game Jaguars are underdogs, last favored Sept. 30, 2012 vs Cincinnati (favored just three times past 61 games)

·         Panthers 11-2 ATS last 13 meetings at Saints (two losses in past three games however)

·         Bills lost 16 in a row SU when double-digit dogs since 2005

·         Raiders have won 5 of 11 games outright when getting 7 or more points at home since Dec. 21, 2008

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins, -3

·         Ravens 4-0 SU & ATS last 4 meetings with Dolphins

·         Ravens 1-3 SU & ATS last 4 games as road underdogs

·         UNDER 4-1 in Miami's last 5 games as home favorite

·         OVER 6-1 in Baltimore's last 7 road games (4-0 L4)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals, -3.5

·         Steelers 11-4 SU & ATS last 15 meetings with Bengals (6-2 L8)

·         Steelers 1-4 SU last 5 divisional road games

·         Steelers outscored 57-16 in divisional road games so far in 2014

·         Bengals 9-3-1 ATS last 13 games as home favorites

Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns, +4

·         Colts 24-6 SU last 30 games as road favorites

·         Colts 9-2 ATS last 11 games as road favorites

·         Colts 6-1 SU last 7 meetings with Browns

·         Browns 6-3 SU & ATS last 9 games as home underdogs

·         OVER 6-0 in Indy's last 6 games as road favorite

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars, +6

· Jaguars underdogs for 41st straight game

·         Texans 0-3 ATS last 3 meetings with Jaguars (4-0 previous 4)

·         Texans 14-4 SU as road favorites since December 2009

·         Jaguars 5-13-1 ATS last 19 games as home underdogs

·         UNDER 7-2 in Houston's last 9 road games vs. AFC South

·         UNDER 8-2 in Jacksonville's last 10 home games vs. AFC South

New York Giants at Tennessee Titans, PK

·         Giants 0-7 SU last 7 games (1-6 ATS)

·         Giants 0-5 SU & ATS last 5 meetings with Titans

·         Giants 0-4 SU & ATS last 4 road games

·         Titans 1-10 SU last 11 games (2-8-1 ATS)

·         Titans 1-9-1 ATS last 11 home games (2-9 SU)

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints, -10

·         Panthers 11-2 ATS last 13 meetings at Saints

·         Panthers 0-3 ATS last 3 games as road underdogs

·         Panthers 4-1 SU last 5 divisional road games

·         Saints 8-2 ATS last 10 home games vs. NFC South (9-1 SU)

·         Saints 0-3 SU & ATS last 3 games as home favorites

·         Saints played six straight OVERs when double-digit home chalk since 2010

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions, -10

·         Buccaneers 2-8 ATS last 10 meetings with Lions (6-4 SU)

·         Buccaneers 6-1 ATS last 7 road games vs. NFC North (5-2 SU)

·         Buccaneers 6-1 ATS last 7 games as double-digit underdogs

·         Buccaneers 4-1 ATS last 5 games as road underdogs

·         Lions 1-6 ATS last 7 home games vs. NFC South (2-5 SU)

·         Lions favored by double digits just once since 1996, beat Vikings 34-28 as 10.5-point chalk in 2011

St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins, +2.5

·         Rams 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings with Redskins (4-2 SU)

·         Rams 4-1 SU & ATS last 5 games as road favorites (last time 2011 at Seahawks in playoffs, last time in regular season 2010 at Cardinals)

·         Redskins 2-5 ATS last 7 games as home underdogs (1-6 SU)

New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings, -6

·         Jets 6-0 SU last 6 meetings with Vikings

·         Jets 2-5-2 ATS last 9 road games (1-8 SU)

·         Vikings 8-2 ATS last 10 home games (7-3 SU)

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos, -11.5

·         Bills lost 16 in a row SU when double-digit dogs since 2005

·         Bills 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings with Broncos (2-4 SU)

·         Bills 4-10 ATS last 14 games as road underdogs

Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals, PK

·         Chiefs 5-1 SU last 6 meetings with Cardinals (4-2 ATS)

·         Chiefs 7-3 ATS last 10 road games

·         Cardinals 5-0 ATS last 5 home games

·         Cardinals 10-1 SU last 11 home games (8-3 ATS)

San Francisco 49ers at Oakland Raiders, +8.5

·         49ers 3-0 SU & ATS last 3 meetings with Raiders

·         49ers 12-2-1 ATS last 15 games as road favorites

·         Raiders 2-6 ATS last 8 games as home underdogs

·         Raiders have won 5 of 11 games outright when getting 7 or more points at home since Dec. 21, 2008

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles, -1

·         Seahawks 3-1 SU & ATS last 4 meetings with Eagles

·         Seahawks 10-3-1 ATS last 14 games as road underdogs

·         Eagles 6-0 SU last 6 games as home favorites (5-1 ATS)

·         Eagles 5-1-1 ATS past seven as small chalk of 1-3 points

·         Seahawks 11-3 ATS past 14 as small dogs of 1-3 points

New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers, +4

·         Patriots 24-5 SU in December road games since 2002

·         Patriots 10-3 SU last 13 meetings with Chargers (8-4 ATS last 12 lined games)

·         Patriots 9-3 ATS vs AFC West since 2010

·         Patriots 2-7 ATS last 9 games as road favorites (5-4 SU)

·         Chargers 10-4 ATS last 14 games as home underdogs (9-5 SU)

·         OVER is 11-2 in 13 Sunday Night games so far in 2014

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers, -13

·         Falcons on 4-0 ATS run as double-digit dogs; just third time since 2002 have gotten this many points (13)

·         Packers lost three of past four Monday Nighters

·         Falcons 2-8 ATS last 10 games as road underdogs (0-10 SU)

·         Falcons 6-3 ATS last 9 meetings with Packers (4-5 SU)

·         Packers 5-0 ATS last 5 games as home favorites (average margin of victory 26.4 points)