Well, Week 2 began with a 1-0 start against the spread, as Baltimore dominated the Steelers on Thursday night. That is how I started Week 1, too, and that became a disaster. I ended up 4-12 ATS. I'll try and give better advice, but it was a weird Week 1.
What is on the table for Week 2?
Dolphins (-1) at Bills: Both teams were a surprise in Week 1. Miami, though, looked quite impressive. The trends favor Miami. Buffalo is 10-34 straight up at home as an underdog to an AFC East team, as they are this week. A one-point spread is basically going straight up. Additionally, Miami has historically covered 57 percent of their games following a win plus cover. Pick: Dolphins -1.
Falcons at Bengals (-5): Fun fact -- Cincinnati was 8-0 against the spread at home last season. That seems rather anomalous, but in the last 20 games the Bengals have been in, the home team has covered 16 times. Atlanta was impressive at home, but they aren't at home this time. Plus, since Andy Dalton game into the league, when favored at home by at least three, they have covered 10 of 16 games. Pick: Bengals -5.
Saints (-6.5) at Browns: This seems like a no-brainer, right? But then you think about the way the Browns ran the ball against the Steelers and you have to stop and think. The thing is, though, that because of the Saints' offense, they will get out to a lead and Cleveland will have to pass, not run. In terms of trends, the Saints are 20-3 ATS after a loss on the road. That's all I need to know. Pick: Saints -6.5.
Cowboys at Titans (-3): Despite a 1-0 start for the Ken Whisenhunt era and Tony Romo doing Tony Romo things in Week 1, you know what happens with a team like Dallas that has been unbelievably mediocre. They bounce back from losses. The last 17 games the Titans have played in, the home team has covered only four times. Dallas has covered the last nine games in which they were road dogs against the AFC. And Tennessee is historically bad after winning and covering -- they have covered only eight of 30 games the next week. Pick: Cowboys +3.
Patriots (-3) at Vikings: Well, Adrian Peterson is not playing, which means Matt Asiata and Jerrick McKinnon. Plus, New England always bounces back after a loss. They have covered 28 of 38 games since 2003, and they are 13-1 ATS against winning teams following a loss. And for my money, I just don't like betting against Tom Brady. Pick: Pats -3.
Cardinals (-2.5) at Giants: This is the first time in 20 years that the Cardinals are favored on the road against the Giants. Eli Manning does well as an underdog, covering 57 percent of the time. But Arizona, when favored on the road by less than three points is good -- they cover 66 percent of the time historically. Arizona has offensive weapons and a stifling rush defense. New York has a "work in progress" offense. This is a game the Cards should win. Pick: Cardinals -3.
Jaguars at Redskins (-6): Jacksonville looked good starting off their Week 1 game against the Eagles, but then realized they are the Jaguars. They do not bode well as road underdogs. I expect the Redskins to be able to move the ball well. Even if the Jags start well, they won't have the staying power on the road. Pick: Washington -6.
Lions at Panthers (-2.5): Cam Newton is back and he wants to avoid "Donkey Kong" Suh. Detroit actually is a terrible pick historically. After scoring at least 30 points the week before, the Lions have lost against the spread 13 straight games. Why go against that? Pick: Panthers -2.5.
Ram at Bucs (-5.5): The Rams will start their third string QB. The Bucs hope to rebound after looking awful a week ago. That's all you need to know. Pick: Bucs -5.5).
Chiefs at Broncos (-12.5): Peyton Manning is at home this week in a divisional game. Those games tend to be close. The Chiefs do well as big underdogs. They have covered their last 10 games in which they were more than 10-point underdogs and coming off a loss. For me, I hate big spreads early in the year. I think the Broncos win, but the Chiefs make it a game. Pick: Chiefs +12.5.
Jets at Packers (-8.5): The Packers will hope to recover from an embarrassing loss to open the season. When the Packers are favored by eight or more points at home, they cover 65 percent of the time. Plus, they will be home and won't be playing the Seattle defense. Pick: Packers -8.5.