It's time for Week 3 picks against the spread. After an abysmal Week 1 at 4-12, Week 2 looked much better for a while, but cooled off withe later games. I ended up 9-7.
After an easy pick of the Falcons on Thursday night, I stand at 14-19 on the season.
How is Week 3 shaping up?
Chargers at Bills (-2): San Diego is coming off a fantastic win over the Super Bowl champs. They have to travel across the country, though and play in an early game. The Chargers are historically inconsistent, especially early in the season. The trends favor neither team. San Diego is 3-11 ATS on the road against the AFC East. Buffalo is 2-20 ATS a week after beating the Dolphins. I will take the home team here. Pick: Bills -1.
Ravens (-1.5) at Browns: Cleveland shocked the world. Baltimore dominated the Steelers. There are no real trends to look at, except that the Browns have only beaten Baltimore once in their last 12 meetings. But I like the Browns at home to win straight up this week. So obviously, going ATS, my pick is Browns +1.5.
Packers at Lions (-2.5): The Packers are 5-1 ATS and straight up against the Lions. They are 34-14 ATS in the division. But the Packers defense is suspect and Detroit shredded a suspect defense once already this season. That's why I like the home team. PIck: Lions -2.5.
Cowboys (-1) at Rams: Dallas is terrible when favored after a win -- 1-13 ATS. But this week they are facing the Rams and likely Austin Davis. While the Cowboys are a bad money pick, it''s even worse to go with the third string QB. Pick: Cowboys -1.
Raiders at Patriots (-14): I HATE big lines like this, especially early in the season. And the Pats are 6-20 ATS with a double digit spread. But the Raiders are 4-9 ATS on the East Coast. How do you make a decision here? Oakland's defense is dreadful this year. Put the money on Brady, which is typically one of my calls in general. Money on Brady is the smart thing. Pick: Pats -14.
Vikings at Saints (-10): Honestly, does anyone think that the Vikings stand a chance? New Orleans is coming off a last-second loss. They are 20-4 ATS after a loss and 17-1 ATS at home when Sean Payton is coaching. This is a lock.: Saints -10.
Texans (-2.5) at Giants: Do we really think the 2-0 Texans are good? After all, they were 2-0 last season and ended 2-14. Are the Giants going to lose every game? Nope. Here your money is better placed on the Giants. Houston is 1-3-1 ATS on the road against the NFC East and 2-5 ATS on the road as favorites. Pick: Giants +2.5.
Redskins at Eagles (-6.5): Philly went 2-0 straight up and ATS last season against Washington. Washington starts Kirk Cousins. Fans in Washington think he is great. I don't. Philly is the best team in that division and can score, even though Washington's defense is playing well. Pick: Eagles -6.5.
Colts (-7) at Jaguars: Indy is 13-1 ATS following up a loss. Their only loss was last week and they were playing a team that will make the postseason. They are playing the Jags this week, who give up points in bunches. This is a lock: Colts -7.
49ers (-3) at Cardinals: Arizona will have their backup QB starting in Drew Stanton. Arizona has won only once in 10 games against the Niners. The Niners are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games and are 15-1 ATS when favored after a loss. I am a Cardinals fan, so I always pick the Cards and since I am a fan, I don't touch this game at all. But in terms of betting advice, the smart money is on San Fran. Still, being a homer, I will predict a Cards win. Pick: Cards +3.
Chiefs at Dolphins (-4): Can you trust Miami? They are 10-35 ATS as home favorites. KC is trying to avoid an 0-3 start after making the playoffs a season ago. I don't trust Miami. Take the points. Pick: Chiefs +4.
Broncos at Seahawks (-5): This is Peyton Manning's revenge game. I don't care that Seattle lost last week and will play angry. I don't care that the trends say Seattle is the better play at home. I like Manning in revenge games. Pick: Broncos +5.
Steelers at Panthers (-3): The Panthers are a good bet. They are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight home games in which they are favored. Go with that. Pick: Panthers -3.
Bears at Jets (-2.5): Chicago is sky-high after a comeback win over the 49ers. The Jets are 53-87 ATS as home favorites (that's a lot of games). The Bears, meanwhile are 3-0 in their last three games (straight up) on the road against the AFC East. That's smart money. Pick: Bears +2.5.
And here are SB Nation's picks: