Week 3 picks went decently. 10-6 was the result picking all the games. I have almost recovered from a dreadful Week 1. Overall, after three weeks, I am 23-25.
Thursday night's game set me back a pick as well, as I should have looked at he QB matchup more than the trends -- go with Eli Manning on prime time over Kirk Cousins. It just makes sense.
Well, here we go for Week 4. Any trends I give as information come from Pregame.com or Predictionmachine.com
Packers (-1.5) at Bears: Green Bay is embarrassed after getting beaten 19-7 in Detroit. But they still are 34-15 ATS playing in their division. Chicago doesn't have the defense that Detroit has. Another trend -- when the Bears are in a game with the over/under set above 44, they are 15-40 ATS. This game's over/under is at 50. Chicago has covered only one of their last 11 home games. Pick: Packers -1.5.
Titans at Colts (-7.5): The football decision is easy -- Tennessee isn't good and Indy can score points. Indy is 13-3 ATS against losing team during the Andrew Luck era and are 10-2 ATS in the division. But they are 5-7 ATS as a home favorite. I like Luck at home for a blowout. Pick: Indy, -7.5.
Dolphins (-4) at Raiders (in London): This game is always hard to pick because of the distance traveled. Oakland will have traveled almost 16,000 miles in 21 days. History is on the Raiders' side for betting. Teams losing three straight games and underdogs the next week cover 54 percent of the time (dating back to 1978). Miami is 15-8-1 after a loss when they are favored on the road or a neutral field. Miami's defense bad, as is Oakland's, but the Raiders held the Patriots to 16 points, while Miami was lit up for 34 and Alex Smith didn't even attempt one pass greater than 10 yards down the field. I think this will be a sloppy, close game. I like the underdog for the cover -- Raiders +4.
Lions (-1.5) at Jets: This game I like the trends. Detroit is very unreliable. The Jets have been resilient in some close losses. That will come together this weekend. The Jets are 17-2 ATS at home after a home loss. Check. Detroit is 4-16 ATS as road favorites and 4-14 ATS after a win. Pick: Jets +1.5 and straight up.
Buccaneers at Steelers (-7.5): Pittsburgh lit up a very talented Carolina defense on the road. Now they come home to a team that can't even beat backups. I;m surprised the spread isn't larger. 7.5 points doesn't scare me at all. Pick: Steelers -7.5.
Panthers at Ravens (-3.5): This is a tough one because you aren't quite sure what you have in both teams. What we do know is that Cam Newton is not completely healthy. Joe Flacco is great as a home favorite, but Newton is 11-4-1 ATS as a road underdog. Since it is not a healthy Newton and his receiving corps is still not great. Plus they have injuries in the backfield, I will take the home team. Pick: Ravens -3.5.
Bills at Texans (-3): The trends are clear here. Taking Canada out of the mix, the home game is 16-4 ATS in the last 20 Bills games. Also, Buffalo is 3-9 ATS as a road dog after a loss. Buffalo is a young team and I don't trust them. I don't trust Houston, but they are at home and have skill on defense. Pick: Texans -3.
Jaguars at Chargers (-13.5): The dreaded big spread...but the Jags are terrible. The Jags have lost eight straight September games against the spread. San Diego has not lost ATS in their last eight September games. But Philip Rivers is 1-8 ATS when favored by more than 13. But San Diego's offense is very good. Jacksonville's defense is terrible. Pick: Chargers -13.5.
Eagles at 49ers (-5): San Fran is an unhappy group right now. They have lost two straight and will host a 3-0 team. I expect a big bounceback game. Trends go both ways, but Philly gives up big numbers in the passing game. San Fran tried to spread out Arizona and was successful early. The Niners at home after two losses is not a team I want to face. I won't bet against them. Pick: Niners -5.
Saints (-3) at Cowboys: The Saints have been Super Bowl champion good at home and not so good on the road. They will face a terrible Dallas defense, but New Orleans has issues of its own in the defensive backfield. It is ugly on the road for the Saints. With Sean Payton coaching, the road team has covered only five times in the last 40 games. I wouldn't bet against that. Pick: Cowboys +3.
Patriots (-3.5) at Chiefs: New England is coming off a nail-biter, while the Chiefs put up 34 on Miami. The home team in New England games is 16-5 ATS. I like the Chiefs here, maybe not to win, but to keep it close for the Pats. Pick: Chiefs +3.5.