clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

2015 Super Bowl odds: Underdogs are good bet recently, recent trends for public bettors

New, comments

A look at some trends and odds for the big game.

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

With this year's Super Bowl set for this weekend, it is definitely time to start looking at the odds for the game. According to Oddsshark, the New England Patriots are one-point favorites. After an initial surge of roughly 70 percent of bets going for the Pats, that has fallen to 57 percent -- still a significant gap over bets for  Seattle.

If the Seahawks remain slight underdogs, it's not good news for bettors, historically speaking. The last five times a team returned to the Super Bowl for a second straight year and got points from oddsmakers, they lost all five and failed to cover the spread once. Minnesota in Super Bowl IX, Dallas in Super Bowl XIII and Buffalo in Super Bowl XXVI, XXVII and XXVIII were underdogs and went 0-5 SU and ATS.

Super Bowl Trends

  • Favorites have lost three straight SBs and 5 of 7 overall
  • If line stays under 3 points, it's just the fourth time since 1980 the SB spread was this small (last year -2 for Denver, three years ago Pats -2.5 vs Giants, PK in Super Bowl 19 Bengals vs Niners).
  • NFC is 15-2 in coin tosses over past 17 games (although AFC has won two of past three)
  • Quarterbacks are 6-2 past eight in winning Super Bowl MVPs - interestingly, given Seattle defensive prowess, 5 of the top 12 betting odds for this year's MVP are defensive players, which happened just five times since Super Bowl XII
  • Only two of the past eight national anthems went OVER 2 minutes
  • Orange has been the color of Gatorade poured on the winning coach's ahead in three of the past five Super Bowls

Super Bowl Odds Records/Notes

Favorites are 25-21-2 ATS (Against-the-Spread)

Favorites by decade:

  • 60's: 2-1 ATS
  • 70's: 8-2 ATS
  • 80's: 5-5 ATS
  • 90's: 6-3-1 ATS
  • 00's: 3-6-1 ATS
  • 10's: 1-4 ATS

Underdogs have won outright 15 times

NFC is 25-20-2 ATS

  • The highest spread was -18.5 by the San Francisco vs. San Diego 49ers in Super Bowl XXIX. They won 49-26
  • The lowest spreads were Miami -1 vs Washington in Super Bowl VII. They won 14-7. Also, San Francisco -1 vs Cincinnati in Super Bowl XVI. They won 26-21.
  • Aside from the two pushes, the team that has won has only failed to cover six times
  • The totals (Over/Under) are 24-23...Note, there was no total for Super Bowl I

Over/Under by decade

  • 60's: 1-1
  • 70's: 3-7
  • 80's: 6-4
  • 90's: 7-3
  • 00's: 4-6
  • 10's: 3-2

The highest total was 57 in Super Bowl XLIV featuring New Orleans vs. Indianapolis. The game went under with New Orleans winning 31-17. The lowest total was 33 four times.

  • Super Bowl VII, Miami vs. Washington...Total went under with Miami winning 14-7
  • Super Bowl VIII, Miami vs. Minnesota...Total went under with Miami winning 24-7.
  • Super Bowl IX, Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota...Total went under with Pittsburgh winning 16-6.
  • Super Bowl XXXV, Baltimore vs. New York Giants...Total went over with Baltimore winning 34-7.

When the favorite covers, the over/under is 15-11

When the dog covers, the over/under is 9-10

Patriots and Seahawks Trends

  • Patriots were underdogs five times in 2014, won outright four times
  • UNDER is 5-1 in Patriot playoff games where they are underdogs (since Super Bowl 36)
  • Seahawks 25-5 SU last 30 games as favorites
  • Seahawks 9-0 SU (5-3-1 ATS) last 9 games as playoff favorites
  • Seahawks 6-1 ATS last 7 games vs. AFC East
  • Seahawks 6-1 SU last 7 playoff games
  • Seahawks 4-2-1 ATS last 7 playoff games
  • Seahawks 6-2 SU & ATS last 8 meetings with Patriots
  • Seahawks 10-4 SU last 14 games vs. AFC (1-8 SU previous 9)
  • Seahawks 2-5 ATS last 7 games vs. AFC
  • Patriots 1-5-1 ATS in 7 previous Super Bowl appearances (3-4 SU)
  • Patriots 6-2 SU & ATS last 8 games vs. NFC
  • Patriots 1-3 SU last 4 games vs. NFC West (11-0 SU previous 11)
  • Patriots 2-5 ATS last 7 games vs. NFC West (11-0 ATS previous 11)
  • Patriots 5-10 ATS last 15 playoff games (8-7 SU)
  • OVER 3-0 in last 3 meetings (UNDER 3-0 previous 3)
  • OVER 13-3 in Seattle's last 16 games vs. AFC East
  • OVER 12-3 in Seattle's last 15 games vs. AFC
  • OVER 5-1 in New England's last 6 games vs. NFC West
  • UNDER 4-1 in New England's last 5 games vs. NFC
  • UNDER 5-1 in New England's last 6 playoff games as underdogs