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2015 NFL picks against the spread: Week 5

Here is betting advice if you want it.

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It is time for picks against the Vegas spread. Week 5 started out with a loss, as Matt Hasselbeck did a pretty good impression of his 2006 self to beat the Houston Texans, who are a mess. Last week was pretty mediocre. I finished 8-7 overall, bringing my record against the spread for the year to 37-25-1.

What would I do with my money if I were to wager on the NFL's Week 5 games? Any trends come from the Trend Machine.edskins at Falcons (-7.5): OK. I am buying the stock of the Atlanta Falcons. They are playing really well and put up a ton of points to a supposed good defense. Back at home against an inconsistent Washington team, I see this a 10-14 point win for the Birds. Falcons -7.5.

Seahawks at Bengals (-2.5): No Marshawn Lynch again for Seattle and they face perhaps the most complete team in the league on a short week. Their defense is still stifling, but the offense is just not there. They will not be so fortunate on the road. Bengals -2.5.

Rams at Packers (-9.0): You would think this will be a lock for the Packers, but you have to see how the Rams play. They beat a very hot Arizona team on the road. They were very good defensively in the red zone. I'm buying Todd Gurley here. They have the perfect team to keep a game close. I will not pick against the Packers at home, but the Rams will do enough to keep this a one-score game. Rams +9.0.

Bills (-2.5) at Titans: The Bills are a little bit of a mess and they are without their two top running backs. I like the discipline of Marcus Mariota and like the Titans at home even to win outright. Titans +2.5.

Bears at Chiefs (-9): Oof. I don't like the line. The Bears seemed to pull things together a bit and the Chiefs are a field goal machine right now. I think KC wins, but I will take the points. Bears +9.

Saints at Eagles (-4.5): I hate this game. Philly can't be trusted, but the Saints can't either, especially on the road. Drew Brees being back is a help, but I wouldn't touch this game. I think the Saints' front matches up favorably against the Philly O-line, as well as their receivers against the corners, so I will lean towards the cover for the Saints. Saints +4.5.

Jaguars at Buccaneers (-2.5): The Bucs are 7-12 ATS as home favorites. Blake Bortles is winless on the road as a starter, but  is 5-3 against the spread. Jags +2.5.

Browns at Ravens (-6.5): Over the last two years, the Browns have 14 losses on the road and lose by an average of nine points. Baltimore is 6-2 ATS after extra rest playing on Thursday Night Football. Ravens -6.5.

Cardinals (-2.5) at Lions: This is a no-brainer. Arizona put up 22 points against the Rams, who did a very good job defensively. The Lions are a mess offensively. If the Cardinals don't win by at least a touchdown, they need to reevaluate things. Cardinals -2.5.

Patriots (-8.5) at Cowboys: Well, I don't like betting against Tom Brady and that would most certainly count against Brandon Weeden. However, the trends tell us don't. 4-0 teams favored by at least a TD only cover 37 percent of the time and the Pats are only 1-4-1 ATS with extra rest. I'll take the points. Cowboys +8.5.

Broncos (-5) at Raiders: After a 4-0 start, Peyton Manning is 4-2 ATS. The Raiders are 5-10 ATS at home against Denver as underdogs. Broncos -5.

49ers at Giants (-7): I just can't put money on the Niners with how bad they are offensively. They have scored 10 points combined the last two weeks. Giants -7.

Steelers at Chargers (-3): No Big Ben. Philip Rivers is 5-2 ATS on Monday Night Football. Chargers -3.