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2015 NFL picks against the spread: Week 7

Some betting advice if you want.

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

It is time for my weekly picks against the Vegas spread.  Week 7 started poorly in my picks. I thought the 49ers would put up more of a fight and keep the game close on Thursday. As for Week 6 picks, I was rather mediocre. I ended up 7-6-1. Next time just flip a coin or pick the favorite or something.

On the season, I am now 49-40-2 entering the week. Not great, not good, but not bad, either.

But here are my thoughts on the games coming up this weekend, beginning with the London game.

Bills (-5.5) at Jaguars (in London): Defense travels, but I don't like how Tyrod Taylor and Sammy Watkins will not play. I'm going for the upset pick. Jaguars +5.5

Vikings (-2.5) at Lions: After getting off the schneid, Detroit now hosts the Vikings. The money is going with the Lions this week. I will, too. Lions +2.5.

Falcons (-3.5) at Titans: Tennessee will be starting Zach Mettenberger at quarterback. The Falcons will be ready after losing to the Saints on Thursday Night Football. No problem here. Falcons -3.5.

Saints at Colts (-4.5): Taking the Saints on the road? No way. The Colts get to play another week team. How lucky. Colts -4.5.

Steelers (-2) at Chiefs: I don't know about this game. The Chiefs are bad, but the Steelers are sending Landry Jones out to start on the road. He might have surprised the Cardinals. I don't think he will fare nearly as well against KC. Chiefs +2.

Browns at Rams (-5.5): Cleveland has drama surrounding them with Johnny Manziel. The Rams have a very good offensive attack now with Todd Gurley rolling. They also play very well at home. Rams -5.5.

Texans at Dolphins (-4.5): The Dan Campbell effect will carry over at least one more week. Plus, the Texans are a borderline disaster. Dolphins -4.5.

Jets at Patriots (-9): I like the Pats here, but I also really like the Jets defense. This is one of those times I am going to break my number one rule -- don't bet against Tom Brady, especially at home. I just think it will be a one-possession game. Jets +9.

Buccaneers at Redskins (-3.5): Can this game just not exist? I have zero confidence in either team. If I have to pick one, Redskins -3.5.

Raiders at Chargers (-4): Division battles are tough to predict, but a four-point gap isn't too big. I'll go with the home team. Chargers -4.

Cowboys at Giants (-3.5): They were embarrassed by the Eagles, but they now face Matt Cassel. The Giants are so lucky they play in the NFC East. I have no confidence in Cassel in his first start, especially on the road.

Eagles at Panthers (-3.5): Yes, the Eagles got a win over the Giants, but it was ugly. Carolina is playing so well, albeit against weaker teams. Philly is still a weak team. Panthers -3.5.

Ravens at Cardinals (-7.5): The last time the Cardinals lost because of red zone struggles and turnover, they rolled over the  Lions on the road. Now they face a 1-5 Ravens team who lost to the Niners. I expect the Cardinals to roll. Cardinals -7.5.