clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

2015 NFL picks against the spread: Making predictions for Week 4 matchups

New, comments

Time for some betting advice, if you care for it.

With Sunday's Week 4 games just around the corner, it is time again for some predictions. We have staff winner picks in one post. But if you're looking for picks against the Vegas spread, here is the place. I did not do as well against the spread in Week 3 as I did straight up (10-6 ATS and 13-3 straight up), but my overall record is solid. 29-18-1 after three weeks is solid.

I'm not saying you should take my advice, but it is here for you, should you decide to use it. Just note, even I don't make any wagers on these games.

Thanks to Josh Scobee, I got Thursday's Ravens win correct as well. Here are my picks for the rest of the Week 4 slate.

Jets (-1) at Dolphins: With the Dolphins struggling mightily on offense and the Jets having such a strong defense, I expect a bounceback game for Todd Bowles' group. Plus, Miami is 7-15-1 in their last 23 games against the Jets. Plying in London, defense travels better, too. Jets -1.

Texans at Falcons (-6.5): Atlanta is having a nice start to the season. I expect a win. But nearly a touchdown to give away? I'm not so sure. Houston's defense and ability to run the ball tells me this will be a one-possession game. Texans +6.5.

Giants at Bills (-6): Well, the Bills are a popular pick these days. However, despite it all, the Giants are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven meetings with Buffalo. The Giants have offensive firepower, but Buffalo is very good defensively. What matter is that the Giants can slow the running attack of the Bills, like they did against Washington. If they do, this game will be close. I do expect a Bills win, but I'm taking the points. Giants +6.

Raiders (-2.5) at Bears: OK, Oakland is good and the Bears are awful. Jimmy Clausen is likely to start again. The Bears are awful defensively. I can't pick Clausen. I just can't. Raiders -2.5.

Chiefs at Bengals (-4): Cincinnati continues to roll and faces a Chiefs team that really needs a win. However, the Bengals are a very good bet at home. They are 14-4 in their last 18 home games against the spread. I'll keep with that trend. Bengals -4.

Jaguars at Colts (-9): This game scares me because of the uncertainty surrounding Andrew Luck and whether he will start. If Luck starts, you feel much more confident giving up the points, even if the Titans managed to put up 33 on Indy. That's where I am leaning. Even with Luck, the defense for Indy isn't great. WIth no Luck, the Jags might even win. I'm taking the points here. Jags +9.

Panthers (-3) at Buccaneers: Until I see a line worth risking it, I'm still not taking the Bucs. Jameis Winston is too inconsistent and the Panthers keep winning. Panthers -3.

Eagles (-3) at Redskins: The Eagles appear to have fixed things. Now they play a bad Washington team. That Philly defense loves turnovers. Kirk Cousins is just the guy to face. Eagles -3.

Browns at Chargers (-7.5): Is it still Josh McCown? Yes. That means I don't trust Cleveland. Johnny Manziel makes the game more interesting, but I see a 10-14 point win for the Chargers.

Vikings at Broncos (-6.5): That Denver defense is good. They will have a tough rushing attack to face in Adrian Peterson. But with Peyton Manning at home and a fierce Denver pass rush, even with a good showing by Peterson, I still like the Broncos. Broncos -6.5.

Rams at Cardinals (-6.5): Everyone seems to think this is going to be the toughest test for the 3-0 Cardinals, who have been absolutely rolling offensively. However, how will the Rams score? Larry Fitzgerald alone has more touchdowns than St. Louis. Cardinals in a big win. Cardinals -6.5.

Packers (-8.5) at 49ers: The Niners look bad. The Packers look good. Two very talented offensive teams have completely dismantled the Niners in Pittsburgh and Arizona. Green Bay poses the same problems. This is going to be another blowout loss for San Fran. Packers -8.5.

Cowboys at Saints (-3): Well, Brandon Weeden gets the start. The Saints are still not good. However, Drew Brees should be back. If you had to pick -- Weeden or Brees -- who would you bet on? Easy answer, right? Saints -3.

Lions at Seahawks (-9.5): Well, expect a Seattle roll. They are about to go on a roll. The Lions are a mess right now. Seahawks -9.5.