With the next round of NFL games on the docket, why not take a look at how we thing things might go against the Vegas spread. Week 7 was a very modest week for me. I finished 8-6. That was on the heels of an even more mediocre 7-6-1 in Week 6. So far on the season, picking all games, I am 57-46-2. That's nothing special, but it could be worse.
Starting off the week, I followed my rule of never betting against Tom Brady at home and he rewarded me. So 1-0 we begin.
Here are my thoughts on the games coming up on Sunday and Monday. Any trends I cite are courtesy of the Trend Machine.
Lions at Chiefs (-5): Well, this isn't playing at Arrowhead Stadium, though I wonder how in the world the Chiefs lost a home game to London when they have one of the best home-field advantages. Well, this is good for Detroit. The Chiefs have struggled all season. So have the Lions. This would be a game to avoid, honestly. But the NFC is 7-3 ATS in London, while home teams in London are 6-4 ATS. I'll lean towards the better trend. Lions +5.
Buccaneers at Falcons (-7): While the matchup heavily favors the Falcons, when Matt Ryan is facing an NFC South foe and is favored by at least a touchdown, he is only 4-3 ATS. He is, though, 7-0 straight up. In the NFC South, division games tend to be close. I'll go with the points and take Bucs +7.
Cardinals (-4.5) at Browns: Carson Palmer is a bettor's friend. Arizona is 10-3 ATS when he starts over the last two seasons. The Browns, while getting healthy, are still the Browns and the Cards are supposed to be one of the best in the league. Cardinals -4.5.
49ers at Rams (-9): The Rams haven't been favored by this much over a division opponent since 2005. With Todd Gurley playing at a very high level, it makes sense. They might be the scariest team to face right now. Rams -9.
Giants at Saints (-3.5): I don't like the Saints this week for some reason. They are way too inconsistent for my liking. Plus, trends show Eli Manning is the better bet. When at least a three-point road dog, he is 32-23 ATS. Giants +3.5.
Bengals (-1.5) vs. Steelers: This is the game I think the Bengals falter. The Steelers get Big Ben back. They are at home. The Bengals are awful at Heinz Field (2-8 ATS in their last 10 games there). They are due a loss. Steelers +1.5.
Titans at Texans (-4): First off, don't bet on this game. It is a horrible idea. Never bet on two bad teams playing one another. Too unpredictable. That said, since Zack Mettenberger still hasn't won and he is on the road and J.J. Watt appears to be set to play, the home team is the better play here. Texans -4.
Jets (-1.5) at Raiders: This is actually a legitimately good game. The Raiders are playing better and have a very talented WR in Amari Cooper against a banged up secondary for the Jets. I still like the Jets and how they are playing.. Jets -1.5.
Packers (-2.5) at Broncos: I actually have no idea who I like more. The Broncos defense is so, so good and they are at home. But can we trust Peyton Manning to lead the Broncos to enough points? With a week off, I tend to think so and that his arm will be okay. I'm betting on the defense here. Broncos +2.5.
Colts at Panthers (-7): Two trends make the Panthers a good play. Andrew Luck is 1-3 both straight up and ATS on Monday Night Football. Plus, undefeated teams with at least four wins on Monday Night Football are 14-8-1 ATS. Plus, the Colts are bad and the Panthers seem to be good. Panthers -7.