Well, if you followed my picks last week, you had a disaster week. It was a tough one for people making picks. I was an embarrassing 3-11 with my picks last week against the spread. But no refunds. I'm not giving back any of the money you all didn't give me for my advice.
The poor showing almost drops me to .500. I am now 73-70-3. Yuck.
But I got a good start to the week with a correct pick of the Jags winning and covering on Thursday night.
The rest of Week 11 games? Here are my picks, with any trends coming from the Trend Machine.
Colts at Falcons (-6): No Andrew Luck means no hope, right? I though that last time and was burned. Plus, the underdogs are winning at about 57 percent this season. This line is too big for me. Atlanta is 2-9-1 as home favorites since they last went to the playoffs. Colts +6.
Broncos at Bears (-1): In what is essentially an even line, you have Brock Osweiler. I'm not convinced he's better than this year's Peyton Manning, so I wouldn't trust him yet, especially on the road against a Bears team that seems to have kind of figured things out. Bears -1.
Raiders (-2) at Lions: Yes, Detroit beat the Packers at home. This is why I see a letdown. Detroit is inconsistent. They are 1-6-1 at home ATS when they are the underdog. Raiders -2.
Cowboys at Dolphins (even): Tony Romo is back. Cowboys for the win,
Buccaneers at Eagles (-6): How about this trend? The Bucs have covered seven of their last 10 road games. And the Eagles will have Mark Sanchez. I like Tampa for the win. Bucs +6.
Redskins at Panthers (-7): Here I am tempted to take the points, but can you trust the Skins to keep their strong play? After all, they put up points against a dreadful Saints defense. Carolina is tough. The money says go Panthers. They have been favored in eight straight games and have covered six of them. And here is the money stat for the Skins. Kirk Cousins has won only six games as a starter. He has lost the next game every single time. Panthers -7.
Rams at Ravens (-1.5): The Rams switched QBs. Todd Gurley has not been as good recently. Ravens -1.5.
Packers at Vikings (-1): Could the Vikings take a commanding two-game lead over Green Bay at home? I can't really see the Packers losing again, although they have some real problems now. But Minnesota is 4-7-1 all time ATS after winning five straight. I think Aaron Rodgers bounces back. Packers +1.
Jets (-3) at Texans: Yes, the Texans got the win over the Bengals, but I don't trust them to win again. I am a Todd Bowles fan, and that might blind me, but I am going with Jets -3.
Chiefs (-3) at Chargers: The Chiefs suddenly are hot and killing it in the first half of games. The Chargers are a mess. KC has won three straight and SD has lost five. The streaks will end. Chargers +3.
49ers at Seahawks (-13): I hate lines this big, but the Seahawks will want to pound someone after losing at home to the Cardinals. Seahawks -13.
Bengals at Cardinals (-4): Arizona is a good bet and plays very well at home. The Bengals don't play so well on prime time. Cardinals -4.
Bills at Patriots (-7): Remember my rule -- don't bet against Tom Brady at home. I will keep following that. Pats -7.